The first week of the byes was a bit of a roller coaster, that didn't end up how we would have liked. Luckily the first 10 weeks of the season went so well which helps weather the storm of a few losing weeks. Ultimately Round 13 ended up down just over 1 unit, so it could have been worse. Regardless, I'm going to work hard to turn it around with my 2016 AFL Round 14 betting tips.
AFL Round 14 Betting Tips
Adelaide Crows vs North Melbourne Kangaroos (Thursday, June 23 at 7:20pm AEST)
It hasn't been a good week off the field for the Roos, but I won't beat a dead horse and instead focus on their upcoming Thursday night game against the fired up Adelaide Crows.
I have to admit that the Roos continue to prove me wrong. Despite losing to the Hawks last Friday night, they really played hard-nosed contested footy and actually dominated key stat areas for much of the game. Unfortunately work rate doesn't end up meaning too much if you can't get the win. That kind of effort would beat most teams in the competition, but the champion Hawks somehow found a way to win. I actually think last week's game will play the biggest role in North Melbourne's chances against Adelaide. It would take a Herculean effort to come off a six-day break, following one of the toughest games of the year, and take on a very talented team on the back of a 12-day break - not to mention on the road.
Adelaide's biggest threat in Round 14 will be themselves. Sometimes the bye can be a blessing or a curse. They need to utilise their freshness, but still come out with the same intensity as they would if they didn't step outside the trenches for a week. North Melbourne are sore, they have some injury worries, their heads have to have dropped a little and they are probably quite keen to get to their bye. The Crows also don't tend to lose at Adelaide Oval. They have won 10 of the last 11 and the last three at the venue against the Roos. North Melbourne managed to stop Jack Gunston and Luke Bruest last Friday, but Adelaide's forward line is an entirely different beast. I think Adelaide have a strong chance to get quite a convincing win here.
Tip: Adelaide at the line (-17.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (1.5 units)
Collingwood Magpies vs Fremantle Dockers (Friday, June 24 at 7:50pm AEST)
In one of the more interesting matchups of Round 14, the Dockers head across to Melbourne on Friday night as they will take on the Magpies at the MCG.
After the starting the season 0-10, the Dockers have now won three in a row and are starting to gain back a little bit of respect. The Magpies, meanwhile, have lost three in a row and need to win this one in front of the home crowd. Collingwood's record against the Dockers isn't too promising, however, as they haven't defeated the Dockers since 2012. They do have enough talent to win this game and they have shown that in glimpses this season. Like the Adelaide v North Melbourne game, this could end up coming down to Collingwood having fresh legs as they are coming off their bye week, while the Dockers are coming off a six-day break. Throw in a trip to the MCG and there looks like a little bit of value on the Magpies at this price.
Tip: Collingwood to win - $1.87 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Richmond Tigers vs Brisbane Lions (Saturday, June 25 at 1:40pm AEST)
The theme of freshened-up teams taking on teams that are begging for a bye continues as the Tigers take on the Lions this weekend.
The Lions are arguably the team who needs a bye the most. They have looked sluggish for a huge portion of the year and were smashed yet again last week. Yes, there were times when they looked dangerous, but it seemed like more of an indictment on where West Coast are at, as opposed to the Lions really showing any improvement.
The Tigers need to make a statement with this game. They have had a week off to reflect and refresh and there will be no excuses to not smash the Lions at the MCG. The Lions continue to show us they can't defend and can't really put a big score up themselves. I hate betting on the Tigers to cover such a big line, but there are plenty of signs that they should put this one away.
Tip: Tigers at the line (-38.5) - $1.91 at Ladbrokes (1 unit)
GWS Giants vs Carlton Blues (Saturday, June 25 at 4:35pm AEST)
The Blues travel to Spotless this Saturday afternoon with the tough task of taking on the very dangerous GWS Giants.
Some people might look at GWS's effort against Essendon last week and think that they aren't as good as we once thought. I think they simply went into that game with a classic case of thinking it was won before it even begun. They will learn from that experience and I think might come into this game hungrier than ever and ready to put together a convincing win in front of their home crowd. The last two times the Giants have played the Blues they have scored over 130 points won by almost 80 points on each occasion. No doubt the Blues are playing better footy this year, but clearly they won't be overly confident taking on the Giants this week. The Giants should simply be too good for the Blues. They are the 2nd ranked clearance side in the comp, while the Blues are 15th. They are also extremely damaging going inside 50 and while Jeremy Cameron hasn't been at his best the last few weeks, he will no doubt cause the Blues some headaches.
While I think the Giants will win, I'm not overly confident with the line on either side, however. What I do like the look of is the total game score market. The Giants can put up a big score (especially at home with scores of 158 and 149 this season) and while the Blues try and play a defensive style of game most of the time, they will know they can't beat the Giants at home like that. Expecting periods of fast-paced rebound scoring from the Giants and the Blues will have to adjust to try and keep up. Thinking this is a relatively high scoring game.
Tip: Total game score OVER 179.5 - $1.92 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
St Kilda Saints vs Geelong Cats (Saturday, June 25 at 7:25pm AEST)
If anyone was having doubts about Geelong's prospects in 2016, that all changed last week when they methodically and convincingly defeated the Western Bulldogs to claim the top spot on the ladder. The Saints won't be too excited about having to take them on this Saturday night.
There is a reason the Cats are on top of the ladder and a lot of the reason is because Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood are the best one-two combo in the league. The problem for opposition teams is that I'm not sure you can stop Selwood and Danger. If the Saints are any chance, however, they will have to try and do just that. I don't think they can win this game, but the Saints have their own weapons in the midfield and certainly play much better football at Etihad compared to any other venue. The Saints are also coming off the bye and should have fresh legs to help them keep up with the best team in the comp. Taking Geelong in a relatively competitive game.
Tip: Geelong by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.30 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Hawthorn Hawks vs Gold Coast Suns (June 26 at 3:20pm AEST)
There aren’t many situations where you would say the Suns are a chance against the Hawks and this Round 14 clash down at the Tasmanian Hawthorn fortress in Launceston certainly isn't one of them.
The Hawks are paying $1.03 and there are plenty of reasons for this. As I say every week, they aren't at their best, but yet again they showed us they know how to get the job done with their brave win over the Roos. Hawthorn's record at Aurora Stadium can't be overstated either. They have won the last 17 in a row and I don't think the streak will be broken this week. The Suns were better against the Tigers a fortnight ago and will be happy to come into this one fresh, but ultimately will find this too hard. I lean towards the Hawks being able to cover the nine-goal line, but I'm not confident enough to bet on this. Apart from Essendon, the Hawks haven’t been putting teams away this season. Will sit this out.
Tip: No Bet
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