After a solid Round 8 with plenty of winners we are back with more 2015 AFL betting predictions as we provide our AFL Round 9 betting tips and preview.
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Sydney Swans Vs. Carlton Blues (Friday, May 29 at 7:50pm AEST)
After a tough start to season 2015 the Carlton Blues have arguably reached one of the toughest times in the club’s history after sacking the game’s longest-serving coach Mick Malthouse.
And the news isn’t going to get better for Carlton this Friday night.
It is interim coach John Barker who will have the rough task to somewhat salvage Carlton’s season and he has a brutal start having to head to Sydney to play the Swans.
The Swans have won the last four against the Blues including a 71-point victory last year. This game could be worse than that loss. Carlton fans just need to hope that their players have some sort of pride and with Malthouse out the door they try and recover some dignity.
In 2015, Lance Franklin kicked six goals against the Blues and you could see something like that happening again. The Swans midfield also had a field day last time these two met with Josh Kennedy having 41 possessions.
Oh, and Marc Murphy, Chris Judd and Bryce Gibbs are out… These guys are just the three best players and the backbone of the entire Blues squad. No biggie.
Tip: Swans at the line (-72.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes
Hawthorn Hawks Vs. Gold Coast Suns (Saturday, May 30 at 1:45pm AEST)
There aren’t many teams that would like their chances against the Hawks in Tasmania and there is no way the struggling Suns think they can win this Saturday.
The Suns have notched just the single win in 2015 and to keep the bad news coming they will be without Dion Prestia to a knee injury this weekend. The Hawks, meanwhile, are coming off a tough loss to Sydney last week and have proven that they do know how to rebound this year with an average winning margin of 78 points after each loss.
My problem with this game is the 75 point line. Sure, the Suns won’t win, but we won’t be touching that line with the Hawks coming off a tough game last week. Best to pass on betting this one as it could go either way with that much chalk on the board.
Tip: No Bet
Melbourne Demons Vs. Port Adelaide Power (Saturday, May 30 at 1:40pm AEST)
If you had to handicap this match at the start of the year Port Adelaide would have been $1.02 favourites. A lot has changed since then with the Power a shadow of their 2014 selves and Melbourne improving immensely. Port Adelaide are still heavy favourites, but plenty of punters give the Demons a chance. We don’t.
This is a simple case of trusting Ken Hinkley to turn the tides. At the end of the day, the Power’s list is still far superior to Melbourne’s and you just have to assume the Power will really be fighting to gain back some confidence.
The game is being played in the Northern Territory so you can throw out any home field advantage for Melbourne. With the Kane Cornes retirement distraction out of the way the Power should focus and win this one comfortably.
Tip: Port Adelaide at the line (-14.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet
Western Bulldogs Vs. GWS Giants (Saturday, May 30 at 4:35pm AEST)
This Saturday twilight game is one of the most interesting of Round 9 with the Bulldogs underperforming last week after a great start to the season and the Giants looking like finals threats after over performing almost every week. This is a great chance to see where these two teams are truly at.
The Giants start this game as the favourite and they deserve that after their gallant victory against the Crows last week. The Dogs, however, struggled against Melbourne last week and will be looking to bounce back. Perhaps the pups were a little weary after their tough match against the Dockers the week prior.
That this game is at Etihad Stadium is good for the Dogs, but the Giants did win on this track against the Dogs last season. Lucky for Dogs fans they will get Will Minson back in the ruck after being crushed in that department all year. They are going to need him against big Mumford.
This one is a really tough game to pick. All the form and key stats lean the game towards the Giants, but if the Bulldogs can play anywhere near as good as they did against the Dockers or Swans, then they are a big chance. Lean towards the Giants in a close one.
Tip: Giants by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.25 at Sportsbet
Richmond Tigers Vs. Essendon Bombers (Saturday, May 30 at 7:20pm AEST)
This big Saturday night game at the MCG is one of the more evenly matched contests of the round. The Tigers are slight favourites on the back of a couple of good wins, while the Bombers will like their chances after their confidence building bashing of Brisbane.
The ‘Dreamtime at the G’ game has been played nine times and the Bombers have won six of those contests. We think the Tigers will get one more in the win column this weekend, mostly due to the fact that the Bombers still can’t clear the ball out of the centre. Their midfield is in shambles at the moment, while the Tigers have seemed to get the balance right in recent weeks. Joe Daniher wont kick a bag against the Tigers like he did last week, so have to lean towards the yellow and black here.
Adelaide Crows Vs. Fremantle Dockers (Saturday, May 30 at 7:10pm ACST)
There aren’t many teams who could head to Adelaide Oval and be heavy favourites against the Crows, but that’s what Fremantle will do this Saturday night.
There isn’t much we can say about Fremantle that hasn’t been said – they are undefeated premiership favourites and deserve to be. Fremantle have won the last three against the Crows and confidence is at an all-time high. As long as they don’t get complacent you can’t see Adelaide winning even though this is on home turf.
Adelaide are still without some stars including Rory Sloane and who knows how they are going to combat the Fyfe/Mundy/Barlow/Hill/Neale combo… No other team has managed to do it yet and we don’t think Adelaide will be the ones to start.
Because this game is at home we think the Crows will show some pride and battle this game out, so we are leaning towards Fremantle in a close-ish one.
Tip: Fremantle by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.10 at CrownBet
Brisbane Lions Vs. St Kilda (Sunday, May 31 at 1:10pm AEST)
There is no doubt that this is the most evenly matched game of the round with both teams 2-6 and both teams seemingly at similar points in their development stage. They are both also coming off a win with the Lions thrashed by the Bombers last week and the Saints were no match for the Eagles.
The Saints will be happy to have Nick Reiwoldt back, but with this game up at the Gabba you have to lean towards the Lions. Going to be utilising the William Hill promo with this one.
Collingwood Vs. North Melbourne (Sunday, May 31 at 3:20pm AEST)
This game is interesting for two reasons – one: we still aren’t sure if Collingwood can beat the really good teams and two: are North Melbourne actually even a really good team?
The last time these two teams met Collingwood won easily, with Travis Cloke kicking four in the first half. That game, like this one, was at the MCG and interestingly this will be first time the Kangaroos play at the stadium this year.
The Magpies are coming off demolishing the Suns, while the Roos are coming off getting demolished by the Dockers. Some of the key stat areas indicate that Collingwood could win this game including the fact the Pies are ranked no. 1 in the comp for contested possessions, while the Kangaroos re 15th.
West Coast Eagles Vs. Geelong Cats (Sunday, May 31 at 2:40pm AWST)
The Cats head out West this Sunday to play the redhot Eagles on their home turf. Geelong have won the last two contests against West Coast, but this is a different outfit.
The Cats will be happy to see that the Eagles won’t have Elliot Yeo out on the field because he has been a revelation so far this season. The Eagles are the number one scoring team in the comp averaging 110 points this year, while the Cats average 86.8. It’s going to take something impressive for the Cats to win this one at Domain.
Tip: West Coast by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.15 at Sportsbet
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!