The 2015 AFL season is getting very interesting. So many teams we thought would do so well have struggled, while others have surprised us. The bookies and the besting public are all over the place lately and so we have managed quite a few winners. Hopefully that continues as we offer our AFL Round 16 betting tips.
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North Melbourne Kangaroos Vs. Essendon Bombers (Friday, July 17 at 7:50pm AEST)
It was back in Round 5 that the Kangaroos and Bombers met on a Friday night at Etihad. The Roos won that game by 11 points. Back then we rated both these sides as two of the better teams in the comp. Plenty has changed since then as the promising Roos are now a disappointing 10th on the ladder and the Bombers have been even more substandard, sitting 14th. What hasn’t changed, however, is that the Roos are a better team than the Bombers.
The real headache for the Bombers this Friday will be in the middle of the ground. The Roos are ranked fourth in the comp for centre clearances and plenty of that has to do with best big man in the league, Todd Goldstein. The Bombers, meanwhile, are dead last for centre clearances. There is no doubt they are going to struggle on Friday night, especially with the continued absence of their skipper Jobe Watson. The Roos tore the Cats apart last week and you could really see them doing the same thing to the Bombers.
There is no doubt the Bombers were better last week in their first victory in five games, but we can’t get over excited when a team beats Melbourne. The Roos, on the other hand, finally gelled in their win over the Cats. They have claimed 10 of the last 14 contests against the Bombers at Etihad and despite being without Petrie, should easily make this number 11.
Tip: North Melbourne at the line (-25.5) - $2.02 at Pinnacle Sports
Geelong Cats Vs. Western Bulldogs (Saturday, July 18 at 1:45pm AEST)
When the betting markets opened for the Cats V Dogs game on Monday the Bulldogs were paying $2.60 at some sportsbooks. Since then, they have been backed in to $2.25. We still think that looks like plenty of value.
The only real positive for Geelong going into this game is that it will be played at Simonds Stadium. The Cats also have a solid record against the Bulldogs, winning the last seven straight. However, the Dogs are different team this year and unfortunately for Geelong fans, so are their mob. They just look so out of sorts at the moment, highlighted by their 41-point loss to the Roos last week. The Cats have also lost three out of four games played t Simonds Stadium, which is hugely out of character.
The Bulldogs kicked ten goals in the final quarter to get the win against the Suns last week and while this will likely be a tougher game, they look primed to keep the momentum going.
Tip: Western Bulldogs Hd-Hd - $2.25 at CrownBet
Or Bulldogs at the line +6.5 - $1.92 at CrownBet
Gold Coast Suns Vs. GWS Giants (Saturday, July 18 at 2:10pm AEST)
It’s like a broken record at this point – but wow, what a difference Gary Ablett makes. The Suns have looked so much more dangerous with the best player in the comp in their side. In saying this, however, he can’t carry the team on his shoulders and it is a pretty big indictment that the Bulldogs were able to come from behind to win after kicking ten goals in the final quarter last week. You couldn’t see the Giants letting that happen. They are just a better side.
There are two positives for the Suns. Firstly the game is at Metricon, but I don’t really consider this a huge advantage. The other positive for the Suns is that GWS are without Shane Mumford. The Giants did, however, manage their first win without him last week. There is no doubt this game will likely be a tight contest, but the Giants should win.
Tip: Giants by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.40 at Sportsbet
Collingwood Magpies Vs. West Coast Eagles (Saturday, July 18 at 4:35pm AEST)
This is one of those games that has me scratching my head. Not because I don’t lean towards one team, more because I can’t understand why the Eagles are paying a generous $1.70.
I am going to be honest, I was one of the punters that overvalued the Pies the last few weeks. I would hate to undervalue them after what were a few ‘solid’ losses, but no matter which way I look at this game it screams value on the Eagles. They are the second highest scoring side in the comp averaging 108.7 points per game and that is going to be a worry for the Pies. They managed a strong performance against scoring powerhouse Hawthorn a few weeks ago, but ultimately couldn’t win. That’s how we see this game going at the MCG on Saturday afternoon.
Tip: West Coast Eagles Hd-Hd - $1.70 using CrownBet
Sydney Swans Vs. Hawthorn Hawks (Saturday, July 18 at 7:20pm AEST)
Matches between the Swans and Hawks have become the biggest game of the season over the last few years. They never disappoint and that will once again be the case this weekend.
The top four, and the top two, really is on the line here with the Swans third and one game clear of the Hawks. The Hawks are slight favourites, but we actually lead towards the Swans here at ANZ Stadium. They got the job done at the MCG in Round 8 and apart from a misstep against Richmond a few weeks ago, they have been really solid. If the odds were skewed the other way we may have leant towards the Hawks, but in this case we will take the value on the Swnas.
Tip: Swans by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.70 at Sportsbet
Fremantle Dockers Vs. Carlton Blues (Saturday at 5:40pm AWST)
The Dockers have been out of form lately and there will be no better way to get some confidence back by hosting the Blues at Domain this Saturday night.
There is a reason the line is 42 points here. You would just have to be crazy to think the Blues can win. One of the key factors in thinking the Dockers can cover the line is that their scoring power has come under scrutiny recently. They will be doing all they can to turn that around this week and will be trying lots of new things to get points on the board. As long as this all goes to plan expect them to put a big score on the board. I do lean towards the Dockers at the line, but personally I will be sitting this one out and just watching to see what the Dockers come up with.
Tip: No Bet
Melbourne Demons Vs. Brisbane Lions (Sunday, July 19 at 1:10pm AEST)
It’s been a few years since the Lions played the Demons at the MCG. The last time they played on the spiritual home of footy was 2012. Brisbane won that game convincingly and since then have won four more on the trot against the Dees.
The Demons have been even more disappointing than usual lately. Maybe that’s because we were starting to expect more from them after a few solid performances. They really should have won against the Bombers last week, but couldn’t get the job done. The Lions, meanwhile, have continued to struggle and despite looking okay for patches against the Swans last week, they ended up losing on their home turf.
The Demons continue to be one of the better tackling teams in the league, while the Lions lack pressure. This might end up being a big difference in what will likely be a close game. I’m not sure the Dees should be as heavy favourites as they are, but they will get the job done on the ‘G.
Tip: Melbourne by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.25 at CrownBet
Port Adelaide Power Vs. Adelaide Crows (Sunday, July 19 at 2:50pm ACST)
If ever a game screamed “do not bet” it is the showdown between the Adelaide Crows and Port Adelaide Power this Sunday.
Firstly, the Power should not be such heavy favourites. The Crows have been a better team for big parts of this year. Yes, they were terrible last week, but that was an unprecedented situation with the murder of their coach. And that situation is just more reason not to bet. The late Phil Walsh had a lot to do with both of these clubs and it’s going to be an emotional day. Do you really want to bet on a game that has such a unique outside source as a factor on the result?
Tip: No Bet
St Kilda Saints Vs. Richmond Tigers (Sunday, July 19 at 4:40pm AEST)
The inaugural ‘Maddie’s Match’ - in honour the sister of Nick Reiwoldt and support the charity named her honour - should see a large crowd pile into Etihad on Sunday afternoon.
While Nick would love to win on such a big occasion, unfortunately he will have to watch Jack Reiwoldt get the four points. The Tigers are simply one of the in-form teams at the moment and will be too much for the Saints. Jack Reiwoldt has a great record against the Saints, kicking 21 goals in 11 meetings and will once again cause the Saints some problems. I do think the Saints will scrap it out and have shown they can get the ball inside 50 plenty, so getting on Tigers in a close one.
Tip: Richmond by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.15 at Sportsbet
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
