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AFL Round 10 Preview & Betting Tips
West Coast vs Melbourne
Sunday 6:20pm AEST, Sunday 19th May, Optus Stadium
Melbourne were left to rue a horrible opening quarter against Carlton, as their late comeback fell one point short. The Demons didn’t score until the ten minute mark of the second quarter, and trailed by as many as 38 points in the third quarter. Christian Petracca then dragged his side back into the contest as Melbourne kicked eight of the last ten goals of the game.
Although his side didn’t win Petracca’s performance was one of the best of the season, kicking 5 of the Demons 11 goals, to go with 21 disposals. The most alarming element of Melbourne’s scoreless first quarter was the fact that they led the inside 50 count 13-11, but trailed 5 goals to none.
After a month of competitive performances, West Coast struggled without Elliot Yeo and Jake Waterman, going down by 68 points against Collingwood in Round 9. A seven goal to two second quarter was the catalyst to the heavy defeat, with the undermanned Pies holding West Coast to their second lowest score of the season (37).
The Eagles will regain some experienced troops with Jake Waterman, Andrew Gaff, Jermaine Jones, Harry Edwards and Jai Culley named in the squad for Sunday’s clash.
Melbourne have had a big week at selection with Ed Langdon (personal reasons), Jacob van Rooyen (concussion) and Daniel Turner (calf) all out of the side this week. Shane McAdam will make his Melbourne debut, while Christian Salem, Adam Tomlinson, Tom Fullarton, Koltyn Tholstrup and Ben Brown have been brought in to the extended squad.
Despite their two game winning streak being halted last week, Narrm are well positioned sitting in fourth with a 6-3 record. However fourth through to tenth on the ladder are only separated by one game, so they cannot afford to slip up in Perth on Sunday.
The Demons defence has been the hallmark of their game once again, ranking as the second best defensive team in the competition. Narrm have held their opponents to an average of just 67 points per game, with 86 points in Opening Round against Sydney the highest score they have conceded.
Match Prediction: With Yeo still out of the Eagles line up, Melbourne’s star studded midfield should be able to give them ascendancy in this clash. West Coast don’t have the quality or experience in the middle of the ground to compete with Gawn, Petracca, Oliver and Viney. The Eagles were able to remain in games over the last month because of their work at centre clearance, however they were -9 in that area against Collingwood.
If the Demons can play a front half game, the Eagles won’t be able to kick a score that will keep this game close. Narrm have won their last three games against West Coast by an average margin of 48 points, with the last two meetings resulting in victories of 63 and 74 points for the Demons.
Melbourne -30.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
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Clayton OIiver 25+ Disposals: After a quiet period between rounds 4-7 on the back of finger surgery, Clayton Oliver is back in form. Oliver has recorded 31 and 26 disposals in his last fortnight and has produced returns of 34, 29 and 28 disposals from his last three games against the Eagles.
Jack Viney 20+ Disposals: He doesn’t get the plaudits that Gawn, Oliver and Petracca do, but Jack Viney continues to produce for the Demons. Viney is averaging 21 disposals per game and has hit the 20 disposal mark in his last three games against the Eagles. Viney recorded 22, 27 and 34 disposals in those three games.
Jake Waterman 2+ Goals: Waterman returns from concussion protocols to resume the most surprising breakout season in the AFL. Despite only playing eight games, Waterman sits fifth in the Coleman Medal race with 24 goals. Waterman has kicked multiple goals in six of his eight games this season, and since Round 4 Waterman has produced returns of 2, 6, 5, 4 and 4 goals.
