Round 16 concludes with a fascinating clash in the west as Hawthorn look to continue their push towards a place in the top eight when they take on West Coast. Jack Tobin has you covered with his full preview below!
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2024 AFL Round 16 Preview & Betting Tips
West Coast vs Hawthorn
Sunday 4:40pm AEST, June 30th, Optus Stadium
Hawthorn return from the bye with a trip out West to take on the Eagles, looking for their fifth straight victory. The Hawks accounted for Richmond by 48 points in their last game before the bye, which gave Hawthorn their sixth win from their last seven games and remarkably just one game outside of the top eight.
West Coast continued to show their improvement from a competitive standpoint, in a 30 point loss to Essendon last week. The big positive for the Eagles was the return of co-captain Oscar Allen who showed plenty of promising signs despite kicking 2.4. The Eagles will regain Harley Reid and Tim Kelly, which will give them a much better midfield than what they had last week.
The Hawks head to Optus Stadium with only one confirmed omission at the time of writing, with Luke Bruest being managed. Harry Morrison, Josh Ward, Finn Maginness and Jai Serong have been included in the extended squad.
One area that is contributing to Hawthorn’s hot form is their improvement in scoring from turnover, arguably the most important score source in the modern game. Over the entirety of the season the Hawks have averaged 42.1 points from turnover per game (ranked 14th), however over their last three games they averaged 54 points from turnover. For context, Carlton ranks second in the AFL with 54.4 points per game from turnover.
All three of West Coast’s wins in 2024 have come at Optus Stadium, a venue where they have scored heavily at. In those three wins the Eagles scored 109, 105 and 105 points, significantly above their season average of 70 points per game. West Coast have lost their last two games at the venue, however in their most recent loss against the Roos they kicked 8.17 in a 9 point loss.
A key aspect of this game will come down to the battle of West Coast’s forward half potency and the work of Hawthorn’s defence. The Hawks have conceded just 69 points per game in their last six games, and haven’t conceded 100 points in a game since Round 7. Hawthorn will be tested by a dynamic forward line with a red hot Jake Waterman, and Oscar Allen.
Match Prediction: This is one of the toughest games of the weekend to pick, Hawthorn are in great form, however West Coast have essentially a full side and have been tough to beat at home. The other factor that’s going against the Hawks is having the bye last week, between 2013-2023 teams coming off the bye had just a 41% winning record.
Hawthorn have won six of their last seven games, with those six wins coming by average margin of 19 points. If West Coast can control the centre clearance battle they will give Hawthorn plenty of challenges with how efficient their forward line has been this season. Either way, this should be a close clash.
Either Team To Win By Less Than 24.5 Points
$1.87 (1 Unit)
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Will Day 25+ Disposals: After a slow start on return from injury, Will Day has put together a quality five weeks of football that has sparked Hawthorn’s resurgence. Day is averaging 24.4 disposals per game across his last five games, with three of the five games recording at least 25 disposals.
Massimo D’Ambrosio 20+ Disposals: Massimo D’Ambrosio has been one of the recruits of the season and much like the Hawks, has been red hot across his last five games. D’Ambrosio has averaged 24.2 disposals per game in his last five games, hitting the 20+ disposal mark in all five games.
Jake Waterman 2+ Goals: One of the surprise stories of 2024 has been the breakout of Jake Waterman. Waterman sits third in the Coleman Medal race with 36 goals, and has kicked multiple goals in eight of his last nine games.
