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2024 AFL Round 23 Preview & Betting Tips
West Coast vs Carlton
Sunday 4:40pm AEST, 18th August, Optus Stadium
Carlton’s season has hit rock bottom at the worst possible time, with their 74 point hiding at the hands of Hawthorn seeing them fall out of the top eight, just three weeks after being second on the ladder.
The Blues injury issues have led the headlines this week, being forced into six changes at selection. Charlie Curnow (ankle), Harry McKay (quad), Adam Saad (hamstring), Jack Martin (hamstring), Lachie Fogarty (collarbone) and Jordan Boyd (groin) are all out of the side for the pivotal clash in Perth.
The big concern for Carlton is that they don’t have a genuine key forward without Curnow, McKay and De Koning, so how they can not only generate goals, but prevent McGovern and Barrass generate offence from interceptions are massive questions.
West Coast produced a miraculous final 95 seconds last week, kicking three goals to overcome a 13 point deficit in the dying stages. The Eagles trailed by as many as 35 points during the third quarter, but produced a spirited comeback to win the second game from the last three weeks.
How Carlton can generate scores with a depleted forward line is through their midfield. Carlton are ranked third in the competition for scores from stoppages and third for scores from centre bounces. The Eagles are the second lowest scoring team in the league this season, so it wouldn’t take a major day in front of goal for the Blues to kick a winning score.
Carlton are the number one ranked contested possession team in the competition and the third for clearances, West Coast are 17th and 15th in both stats respectively. If Carlton can control proceedings at the coal face and avoid a face paced game, they can win this match.
Match Prediction: Given the abundance of injuries particularly up forward, Carlton come into this game as outsiders. However if they can maintain control of the tempo and create a contested game, they will be able to work over an experienced West Coast outfit.
The Blues will need to produce something special, but as they showed last year when their backs are against the wall and the season is on the line, they generally produce their best football. Carlton will grind out a famous victory to keep their season alive.
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Patrick Cripps 25+ Disposals: Although his teammates haven’t been up to standard over the last six weeks, the Carlton skipper hasn’t faltered. Cripps has recorded 25 or more disposals in eight straight games, and will be looking to drag his side across the line in his home state.
Jake Waterman 2+ Goals: Waterman’s breakout has been one of the great stories of 2024, kicking 49 goals to sit fourth in the Coleman Medal race. Waterman has kicked multiple goals in 12 of his last 15 games.
Elijah Hollands Anytime Goalscorer: Hollands has been a great recruit for Carlton across half forward and midfield, but given Carlton’s forward stocks, it’s likely he’ll spend more time forward this week. Hollands has kicked three goals across his last two games and will provide plenty of headaches for West Coast’s defence.
