Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for the best betting races at Warwick Farm, Sandown Hillside and Ascot on Wednesday, March 14th.
We’ve taken a look at all three cards and selected the races we’re keenest to bet into, and you can find our tips and comments on each of those below.
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Best Bet: Ascot Race 7 #4 Mississippi Delta
Best Value: Sandown Race 7 #7 Sneakers
Nice race to start off with. (3) Lean Mean Machine has won both of his public trials leading into his debut here. In the most recent of those, he went to the line basically alongside (1) Heimel, with both horses under a strong hold, so it’s very hard to determine which horse went better than the other. I’m going to stick with the Waller runner, who could lead here, and I see it as a big positive when a Waller juvenile wins both trials before racing. (7) Swelt trialled nicely and isn’t out of the equation here. Could be the value at $7. Pointsbet promo applies for this race – money back for 2nd up to $100.
TIP: (3) Lean Mean Machine
Two I’m interested in here. Former Godolphin horse (2) Dissolution resumes from a spell for new trainer Brad Widdup here. His form to date has been a bit mixed, and there’s queries over whether he’s sharp enough first up over 1200m, but I like this trainer and I like the fact the horse had a solid hit-out over 1200m leading into today’s race. I’m also interested in this runner down the bottom for Chris Waller, (8) Tunero. He’s only had two career starts – separated by a spell – and he’s shown very little in both of those. However, both were on soft ground, and he resumes this preparation as a gelding, and his trials this time in have been significantly better than what he showed in previous preparations. There’s eight runners here so we can bet each way at the $21 on offer. Pointsbet promo applies for this race – money back for 2nd up to $100.
TIP: (2) Dissolution / (8) Tunero EW
Plenty of eyes will be on the New Zealand horse (5) Weather With You here as he heads towards the Rosehill Guineas and the ATC Derby, but he’s short enough in the market given he’s only second up over 1600m here. His only win to date came in Melbourne last prep when he won the Geelong Classic over 2200m, so although blinkers go back on today, I’ll take him on. (2) Sir Barb carries a big weight but he’s knocking on the door for a win, going down by 0.1L and 0.3L in his past two starts. He’s got a good record at this track and distance and this combination is going very well. Happy to back him each way at $5/$1.91.
TIP: (2) Sir Barb EW
(4) Bolero King was very well backed to win first up and duly saluted over the 1100m at Canterbury. He returns to his home track second up here and I think he can go on with it. He’s had two starts second up from a spell previously, resulting in a win and a 2nd placing. Draws well in barrier 2, in-form Tim Clark retains the ride and $6.50 is a juicy price for him. Crownbet promo applies to this race – money back as a bonus bet if your horse runs 2nd or 3rd, up to $50.
TIP: (4) Bolero King EW
Shortie to start things off at Sandown for us in the form of (2) Our Yangtze. This horse was very well backed at Moonee Valley last start and bolted in to win by 3.5L over the 3000m. He had the blinkers reapplied for that race and keeps them on for this. He stays at 3000m and carries a similar weight to what he did last start, so there’s really no reason he can’t win again here with the nice barrier draw. Currently $2.20 and could start shorter. Pointsbet promo applies for this race – money back for 2nd up to $100.
TIP: (2) Our Yangtze
Backing another Darren Weir runner here in the form of (10) Leicester, who was desperately unlucky as the short-priced favourite at Moonee Valley last start. He never got a clear crack at them in the straight and should have bolted in. His win prior to that at Terang was very good and the form stood up out of that race, so with even luck here, I suspect he’ll win. (11) Silverhawk relished the step up to the mile at his third run back from a spell last start. He should cross to the lead from out wide and looks the value chance at $12.
TIP: (10) Leicester / (11) Silverhawk EW
Following my money on (2) Greviste here, who was fairly luckless two starts ago at Moonee Valley before being set an impossible task by Melham at the same track last start. His effort to only be beaten a length was enormous. He’s certainly nearing a win and back in barrier 1 today should see him up closer to the speed, and the bigger track might allow him to get out a touch earlier. Good odds again today at $6.50 and hopefully it’s third time lucky for us! Plenty of attention will be on (5) Calibration but I think it’s his stablemate (3) Approved Anger who is the biggest danger. He’s third up from a spell, draws well and has Ethan Brown on board so gets a nice claim. $6.50 at the moment but could drift with the stablemate likely to be popular.
TIP: (2) Greviste / (3) Approved Anger EW
Juicy betting race. (11) Oscietra is likely to be very popular but I’m taking her on and backing others. (13) Eat Dessert First is first up from a spell here and she trialled very nicely at Cranbourne leading into this. She won first up last prep at Geelong on the synthetic course, before going down very narrowly over this track and distance. Williams takes the ride, which is a notable jockey booking, and I think she’ll start shorter than the $6 on offer. (7) Sneakers is over the odds at $12. She’s a talented mare on her day and she has a very good fresh record, with two wins and a 0.1L 2nd from three starts when first up. She’s yet to run over 1000m so that’s some query, but I think she’s right in this. (8) Alta Stella is smart but has concussion plates on for the first time. Crownbet promo applies to this race – money back as a bonus bet if your horse runs 2nd or 3rd, up to $50.
TIP: (13) Eat Dessert First / (7) Sneakers EW
Keen on the debutant for Simon Miller and William Pike here, (8) Friskey Gal. Miller is a gun with two-year-olds and this filly has trialled nicely leading into her debut today. It’s notable that William pike didn’t ride her in any of her trials but jumps on for race day. Pike has ridden 16 horses for Simon Miller this season, winning eight of them for a 50% strike rate. Taking $2.80.
TIP: (8) Friskey Gal
(11) Browsing returns from a spell here and the money has come early for him, which, from this stable, is a sure sign he’s ready to win first up. He should settle right up on the pace from the good barrier draw, and I wouldn’t be too put off by the big margin he was beaten in the trial. Pike has ridden 18 horses for Darren McAuliffe this season, winning six of them for a 33% strike rate. There’s some $4.20 available still, with some bookies as low as $3.
TIP: (11) Browsing
Pretty keen on (9) Pearls And Prawns here, who comes off a nice win at Bunbury on debut over 1100m. I think she’ll appreciate the step up in distance to 1200m here and the barrier draw really sets this race up nicely for her. From barrier 4 she can sit one off the rail just behind the leaders, and she’ll be there to pounce at the turn. The favourite is currently (2) West Fifty Fourth, who won at this track and distance three starts ago but drops from 1500m back to 1200m, which I dislike. (8) Johnno’s Rocket also won well on debut at Bunbury but Pearls And Prawns ran better time in its debut win.
TIP: (9) Pearls And Prawns
One at a bit of value that appeals here in the form of (5) Musical Art at $10. He was luckless first up from a spell when held up until the 100m mark, before running home strongly once he finally got clear. He’s got a good record with a win and a 2nd from three starts when second up, so he should improve from that first up run, and the step up in distance certainly helps him. Drawn well in barrier 6 and can run a bold race here at double figure odds.
TIP: (5) Musical Art EW
Following my money on (12) Racy Ava, who was very well backed first up at Bunbury and only went down by a nose. The step up from 1400m to 1800m is some query, and we’re going to need some luck from barrier 2 in the big field, but I have to go again today at $3.80 based on the first up run.
TIP: (12) Racy Ava
Best bet of the day here in the form of (4) Mississippi Delta, who looks almost unbeatable in this field. She won first up from a very long spell at Bunbury and then put in an admirable effort last start when beaten half-a-length over 2000m. She stepped up from 1400m to 2000m on that occasion, so with that run under her belt, she should be much better suited for the 2200m today. She draws a lovely barrier in 4 and Pike takes the ride. This field really isn’t strong at all and I’d be very surprised if she got beat here. Very keen, locking in $2.50.
TIP: (4) Mississippi Delta (Best Bet)
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