Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Warwick Farm on Wednesday, September 16th.
Sydney racing returns to Warwick Farm on Wednesday for a seven-race card, which looks very competitive from start to finish. The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail our 3m.
Tim Geers has previewed every race on the card with his tips and best bets below!
Warwick Farm Racing Tips: Wednesday, September 16th
Best Bet: Race 4 - (2) Pressure
Next Best: Race 7 - (7) Phemonoe
Best Value: Race 7 - (10) Savoury
Very happy to take on the current favourite (4) Much Much Better. He comes out of a decent form race at Kensington but John O’Shea’s runners tend to go much better there than here at Warwick Farm, and his form prior to that was only average. (11) So Far Away could be a decent each way bet at $6.00. He settled last at Kembla first up and ran home well to be beaten 1.3L on the line. He’s drawn wide and gone back in both career starts but with barrier 5 today we might see him ridden a bit closer. Up to 1400m, Kerrin McEvoy replacing Darryl McLellan is a big jockey change, and the Snowdens wouldn’t send him back to town if he wasn’t up to it. Waller’s pair of (1) Jack The Lad and (7) Seleque look obvious chances, while (3) Echo Point should be ridden more aggressively today.
(11) So Far Away E/W
$6.00
It’s a shame Malkovich has been scratched as I was keen on him today. (5) Osamu resumed in the G3 San Domenico Stakes but was trapped wide without cover from barrier 4 and dropped out to be beaten 10L by Anders. In terms of three-year-old formlines, it doesn’t get much better than that at the moment. Hugh Bowman replaces Tim Clark, the horse gets a stack of gear changes, and I suspect we will see a much improved performance today. The tricky thing is barrier 10. (1) Dear Sibling could be the value at double figure odds. You simply have to treat this as a new stable now, with John Moore’s influence seemingly having an immediate effect on results, even though he’s still in Hong Kong. (7) Deniki has trialled very well and obviously looks the horse to beat, while (8) Newsreader showed a stack of ability in her first two starts. JMac has trialled her and keeps the ride on race day for John O’Shea, and they had a 33% strike rate together last season, so be wary.
Value: (1) Dear Sibling $13
There’s a few opposing him but I’ll be with (7) Bucharest to make it a hattrick of wins to start his career. His breeding is enormous (Deep Impact x Miss Finland) and he’s looked every bit a stayer from the start, winning over 1500m before dropping back unsuitably to 1400m last start and winning again. Up to the mile today is a big tick and he looks hard to beat once again. (6) Gemmahra was super tough in defeat here last start after copping a stack of pressure throughout. She’s been ridden by two apprentices to start the campaign but gets senior rider Tommy Berry on board today. Draws 1, maps to lead and looks very hard to beat, so Bucharest will need to be good. (2) Suave was given no hope in his first two starts of the prep but won last start when things finally worked out for him. He’s won three from four on good ground and although he cops some more weight, he should be right thereabouts again.
Giving another chance to (2) Pressure here who ran 2nd in consecutive starts at Canterbury before finishing 3L off the winner in Saturday grade at Rosehill last start. He drops back to midweek company today and more importantly, returns to his home track at Warwick Farm, where Bjorn Baker runners seemingly grow a leg. There doesn’t look to be a whole lot of speed on paper so he should find a spot on pace from barrier 9, JMac sticks with him and he looks hard to beat. (1) Magic Over The Bay steps up to 2200m now. He ran in the same race as Pressure last start and was less than a length off the winner. Drawn barrier 1 for a good run and he’s another that’s trained locally at Warwick Farm. Real firm ground might not suit but he should be somewhere thereabouts. (6) Wild Sheila is running well but the race she contested last start was dreadful.
(5) Plaquette resumed with a stylish win at the Kensington track and there’s no reason she can’t win again today. He has three wins from five starts on good ground now and that’s what she’ll get today. Hugh Bowman replaces James McDonald as JMac was booked to ride an unbeaten Kris Lees horse which was scratched. Barrier 9 is a bit tricky but with even luck she’s the one to beat. I think one at big odds to include is (7) Roman Wolf who makes his stable debut for Jarrod Austin. His two trials leading into his first up run today have both been good. He hasn’t won in a long time but he will put himself on speed and might give a good sight. He’s the value. (1) Al Mah Haha had four starts for four 2nds last prep, including the Country Championships Final. Should get a great run from barrier 1 and can be very competitive. (4) Miss Fox won well first up to take her record to four wins from five starts. This is a step up though.
Value: (7) Roman Wolf $19
(8) Joviality has done nothing wrong this prep. She had no luck at all in her first two runs back but she’s been dominant in her two wins since then, both here at Warwick Farm. She has been suited from good barrier draws in those two wins so today’s a little bit different with barrier 9, but in the form she’s in, she should be able to overcome that and win again. (2) Let It Pour got the job done as the very heavily-backed $1.18 favourite first up at Gosford. She should improve off that and on her home deck here at Warwick Farm, where the stable’s runners tend to go very well, she can be competitive at each way odds. (9) Night Witches was good first up at Kembla, running home strongly from the back of the field. Drawn wide again today but Bowman goes on and should be competitive. (7) Alison Of Tuffy can be thrown in at big odds. She came from last to be beaten 1.3L last start and she tends to go well third up from a spell, with three placings from as many starts. (5) Snippy Fox is another to include at double figure odds.
Two I’ll be backing in the last. (7) Phemonoe is ready to win. She sat three-wide the trip last start with 60kg and still battled on to run 2nd. Drawn much better in barrier 2 today and Bowman takes over from Rawiller. She was scratched from another race in order to run here so expecting her to go very close to winning. (10) Savoury was one I was keen on a week or two ago but he was scratched that day. They announced prior to last start their intention to ride him further forward, but he got planted three-wide the trip without cover. His record at this distance has been poor so far but this is his first start at Warwick Farm, and I’ve already mentioned how the Baker horses seem to improve here. Nash Rawiller goes on – always have to respect Nash and Baker teaming up – and at $12 I could see him going well.
