Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Warwick Farm on Wednesday, June 17th.
Sydney racing takes place on what will be a very wet surface at Warwick Farm, where the track is currently rated a Heavy 9 and the rail is out 5m.
Find Tim Geers' preview and betting tips below. You can also click here to view our Sandown Hillside preview and betting tips!
Warwick Farm Racing Tips: Wednesday, June 17th
Best Bet: Race 6 - (3) He's A Hotshot
Best Value: Race 7 - (4) Brazen Gem
There's only one thing stopping (5) Radiance from winning this and that's the heavy track. There's really no telling how she will handle it but we can only go off what we've seen and her trials leading into this have been outstanding. She had one back in February and was put straight out after that, but her two trials since returning have both been eye-catching. The first of those was on the synthetic here at Warwick Farm, where she was last on the turn, before working home under a complete stranglehold out wide. If JMac had have given her any rein at all she probably could have won, but he had her under a throttle hold. Her most recent trial was behind (2) Escape Artist, where they paired off in the straight and came nearly 5L clear of the third horse. Radiance sat outside Escape Artist and loomed up alongside in the straight, but Escape Artist was put under a bit of pressure to win the trial, and Radiance could have gone past her if she was asked to. JMac goes on for race day, she draws well in barrier 2 and IF she handles the heavy ground, she'll be winning this. Escape Artist has won both her trials and deserves respect, but I think the Godolphin filly has her measure.
The market has said (1) Beyliks will just be winning this - he's been $3.20 into $2.00 - but I just couldn't get him that short at all. I could get hurt ignoring such a strong move but I'm going to take him on. The two I'll be with to beat him are (2) Dance and (5) Jimmy's Dream at $6.00 and $8.00 respectively. Dance has run 2nd in both starts back from a break and he just ended up much further back than anticipated last start. Kerrin McEvoy takes over from Rachel King today and from the gate, he can probably land one-one and get a great run. Jimmy's Dream is on debut for Waterhouse/Bott with Tim Clark in the saddle. He's trialled well on two occasions and we'll probably see him lead here. He'll take some running down and $8.00 looks a decent price.
Value: (5) Jimmy's Dream $8.00
Two-horse play for me here as there's only two I'm interested in and we can play both at the odds. (5) Diamonds And Rust has had two runs back from a spell and he was run down late at Newcastle last start. He comes to town third up today and up in trip to 2100m, a sharp jump from the 1600m he ran over 11 days. But he won third up last prep when he made a similar step up in distance, and he won easily. Granted, that was Canterbury and leaders are often favoured, but he should find the front here and be hard to run down. (2) All Things looks the value at $6.00 and a live chance. My main concern with him is the fact John Sargent has a poor record here at Warwick Farm, but this horse is flying and James McDonald is a very strong jockey booking. The horse has won two from four this prep, but in between his two wins was a luckless run at Newcastle behind subsequent city winner Lando Bay. So he brings the right form, he's in form over this distance, he draws well and gets the right jockey on board. Backing those two at $4.20 and $6.00 respectively. If there is to be a blowout, it could be (4) The Bounty who is lengths better on wet ground than he is on firm ground.
Value: (2) All Things $6.00
(5) Diamonds And Rust
$4.20
Keen to stick with (7) Le Lude here. I backed her two starts ago at Kensington when she was well backed and worked home well from last to be beaten less than a length. She was well backed again last start but was caught wide without cover for the first half of the race. Her only prior start at this track and distance was a 0.5L 2nd, and she ran 2nd at Rosehill last prep in her only start on heavy ground. John Thompson has a good strike rate here at Warwick Farm and this is his only runner for the day, so hopefully from barrier 4 Rachel King can get a good run and give her every chance, because I think she'll be very competitive with even luck. Watching the market on (3) Lewis who resumes today as a gelding, first up with one trial under the belt. Nash Rawiller sticks with him and is off the other Waller runner to do so. He does have a big weight to carry first up on heavy ground though, and as mentioned he's only had the one trial. Market should tell the story.
This is an awful, awful race. I'm going to tip (2) He Runs Away again but not with any confidence. It's hard to be confident about a horse that's failed to win in three-and-a-half years. But his last two wins have been pretty good. Two starts back he was beaten a nose at this track and distance, and last start Avdulla set him alight very early. He probably hit the front, but as soon as he did the swooper came over the top of him and he peaked the last 100m. A bit more of a patient ride today would be good but from barrier 7 no doubt he'll be back in the field. He's so far struggled on wet ground too, so a heavy surface isn't exactly his ideal scenario but he's racing well and might find his day in the sun here. I'm also going to tip (10) Cleverley at $51, but we will probably get better on the exchange come race time. She's been beaten about 25L in her first two runs back from a spell, so she's hardly in form, but there's one or two things I can use to make a little case today. She's only ever placed once from 10 starts when first or second up, but she did win her only start when third up. They rode her closer to the speed that day, so hopefully they do the same here from barrier 1 with Tim Clark aboard. Clark actually has a good record for this stable, winning 5 of his 15 rides or them this season. The blinkers are also applied for the first time in her career, so let's hope that sparks her into life a bit! Something small at the huge odds but there is the high chance that she's just very slow.
Value: (10) Cleverley $51
Best bet of the day here with (3) He's A Hotshot. Bjorn Baker has an outstanding record at Warwick Farm this season, operating at a lethal 38%. He has three runners for the day and I reckon this is the best of them. Nash Rawiller takes the ride here and he has a 23% winning strike rate for Baker this season. The horse has placed in 10 of his 12 career starts, so he rarely runs a bad race, and that includes three wins. He comes into this first up from a spell and he won his only trial leading into today, which was on heavy ground at Canterbury, so hopefully he can handle the wet ground here. He draws barrier 1 which should allow him to kick up and lead (hopefully the inside is OK this late in the day) and from there he should be very competitive. $4.20 looks a good enough price to back him. (4) Riva Capri went close two starts back and was well backed last start before dropping out. He gets the tongue tie on today so perhaps he got his tongue over the bit and choked down last start. (6) Accelerato doesn't win out of turn but he hasn't missed a place in four starts when second up, and all of his best form has been on wet ground. (7) Judge Judi has a good first up record and is capable, while (9) L'cosmo will appreciate this step back in grade.
This is a head-scratcher to finish off with, as the market suggests with $5.00 the field. (4) Brazen Gem started $6.50 two weeks ago on the Kenso but probably didn't get everything go his way. He copped a bump at the start, settled back in the field and failed to make an impression. He won his two starts leading up to that and I suspect we'll see him improve at Warwick Farm today. As mentioned above, Bjorn Baker has a 38% strike rate here this season, so it might be worth giving him another chance at $17 today. (8) Travest won his only start, which was here at Warwick Farm. He went straight to the paddock after that and resumes today with three trials under the belt. I can't say they've been overly inspiring but he's worth including given he is still largely unexposed. (14) What A Girl gets the booking of James McDonald, who jumps off one of the more fancied stablemates to take the ride on her. She won her debut at Newcastle about nine weeks ago, and she returns for the first time since today. JMac piloted her in a recent trial where she ran last, but it does catch the eye that he's on her here.
