The first game on NRL Super Saturday heads to New Zealand, with a desperate Warriors team in need of form reversal following their performance last week. They will host the Broncos, a team who is also coming off an upset loss, albeit, a week earlier. With uncertain factors surrounding both sides, Before You Bet is here to unpack the form of each team and look at the possible outcomes over 80 minutes. Hopefully, this will result in you collecting and adding to your viewing enjoyment.
NRL Round 17 Preview & Betting Tips
New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos
Go Media Stadium – Saturday 29th June – 3pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The less said about the Warriors 66-6 loss to the Titans on the road the better. They were woeful in every way, with the 11 try display leaving many wondering where the Warriors of 2023 had disappeared to. The game was all but over at HT as they trailed 30-nil and it continued to get worse. They only have themselves to blame too; with just 46% possession, they completed at 69%, averaged just 8m per carry, made only 399 PCM’s and had 1 line break. They were worse defensively, allowing 11.1m per carry, conceding 12 line breaks and missing 45 tackles. The less said about that performance, the better; they are entitled to a poor showing, if it is an isolated effort.
The Broncos had a week off with the Bye, following their 22-12 defeat by the Rabbitohs on the road. Expected to comfortably defeat an inferior opponent, the usual poise and ferocity was absent in their play. It was replaced by uncertainty and doubt. It took them until the 66th minute to find their first points and only score another consolation try with 3 minutes remaining. They were off in every way; with just 43% possession, they completed at 64%, made fewer metres and PCM’s, while also missing 42 tackles. They must be better if they want to maintain their connection to the Top 4 and how they respond following that effort with indicate the mentality of this squad moving forward.
Match Prediction
The outcome of this game will be largely influenced by the Broncos players and whether they will ‘back up’ from Wednesday night. It is expected that Walsh, Haas and Carrigan will all be omitted from this clash due to the travel which is involved. They are valuable players to their team, and they will want to manage them moving forward; a winnable game against the Warriors isn’t worth the risk moving forward. Their inclusion would change the current odds ($2 vs $1.80) and see the Broncos shorten as favourites. They have named a strong team, with attacking weapons across the field but the inclusion of 3 key Origin players would enhance their chances. The loss of Johnson at halfback for the Warriors would normally cause concern but their best efforts in 2024 have often been with him out of the team. This also gives them a fighting chance and there is no doubt that they will be out for an improved performance after last week.
The Broncos have won the past 2 against the Warriors but always struggle with the trip across to New Zealand; they have just a 37% winning record here (Warriors 57%). The Warriors face a tough test and the statistics in 2024 suggest the Broncos have an edge. They have a better attacking (23ppg vs 20ppg) and defensive record (21ppg vs 23ppg) but it is closer than most would expect given the respective pressure on both teams. This is indicating that the preferred selection in this game should revolve around a tight contest. The uncertainty in other areas in lead to this being a safer option. If forced to make a Head-to-Head selection, there is greater value in the Warriors but confidence in them performing well is low following last week.
Either Team by 8.5 Points or Less
$2.25 (1.5 Units)
