UFC fans finally have a card worth tuning in for after a few bludgers in recent weeks. UFC 319 this weekend will be headlined by Khamzat Chimaev and Dricus du Plessis in what is one of the most intriguing title fights in some time. In the co-main, highly touted prospect Aaron Pico takes on the undefeated Lerone Murphy and Jared Cannonier and Michael ‘Venom’ Page clash in what is sure to be a fascinating striking battle. We take a look at my best bets on the UFC 319 card below, with odds thanks to Neds!
UFC 319 Predictions & Tips
Dricus du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev
The main event boils down to one question. Can Dricus du Plessis stop the takedowns of Khamzat Chimaev? The champ is an unorthodox fighter who arguably doesn’t do anything particularly well, but when mixed together, he presents a unique challenge. That is why he enters every fight looking incredibly beatable, but in the same breath, continues to turn away challengers who just cannot get to him and is the main reason he has become champion.
However, Chimaev is a unique puzzle to solve in his own right. 'Borz' is arguably the strongest wrestler that has ever fought in the UFC, big call I know, when the UFC has seen the likes of Khabib Nurmagomedov. Chimaev's takedowns come with incredible strength, timing, and almost most importantly, if he fails on the first attempt, he tries again and again until his opponent is flat on their back.
But Chimaev has one weakness, his gas tank. However, even when it is totally sapped, he can take a shot, as seen in his fight with Gilbert Burns. And the reality is, it is highly unlikely du Plessis wins by any method other than outlasting him and trying to stop him in the championship rounds.
So can the South African outlast the rampaging challenger? It is a pretty resounding no from me. Du Plessis is more of a reactive than a proactive fighter, which bodes poorly against Chimaev. By the time the challenger has his hands locked, it is too late; you are going for a ride. While on the ground, du Plessis is far from elite and will likely get smothered and stopped within minutes. Therefore, I recommend a pretty strong play on Chimaev by submission and a sprinkle on in the first round.
Value: Khamzat Chimaev by first-round submission $5.30 (1.5 Units)
Khamzat Chimaev by submission
$2.60 (3.5 Units)
Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico
The UFC has seen several Bellator prospects enter with massive hype, but none have arguably entered the Octagon with more than Aaron Pico. Pico has been highly touted for almost a decade, and for years stories from fighters who have trained with him have heralded him as the greatest talent they have ever seen. But he has a massive task at hand, facing the undefeated Lerone Murphy this weekend in his UFC debut.
Murphy is a kickboxing sniper who has picked apart his UFC opponents to date with relative ease. However, the UFC knows what they are doing by matching him with Pico, an elite wrestler.
Murphy has a 52 per cent takedown defence, hardly terrible but not great either. He has faced one good wrestler in his UFC career, Zabaira Tukhugov, the man who gave him the one blemish on his record, with their bout ending in a draw. He was taken down six times in that fight, and there is a clear vulnerability there to the takedown.
Now, reading this preview you go okay, he’s leaning towards Pico springing an upset. And the truth is that is exactly what I was thinking, with my thought being the Bellator prospect by decision at $4 plus is a good play. Then I checked the market and I had to check several sites to see that I wasn’t mistaken that Pico is the favourite.
The reality is yes, he has a great chance to get a win in his UFC debut, but he’s unproven at this level, and Murphy is the dark horse of the featherweight division. So at upwards of $2.50, Murphy is a great bet and a strong one at that, based on absurd value.
Lerone Murphy to win
$2.60 (3 Units)
Jared Cannonier vs. Michael Page
This is going to be a bull vs. matador fight with Jared Cannonier exploding and Michael Page countering. This bout should be a fun watch and for those who love striking battles it is one not to be missed.
From a betting standpoint, which is what I am focused on, Page should be far shorter than the $1.55-$1.60 floating around. MVP is a far quicker, sharper and technically better striker who should control the middle and pick Cannonier apart. The Kila Gorilla is ageing out of the division a bit, and I expect Page to score a memorable and impressive win that could, in turn, result in a title shot.
Michael Page to win
$1.61 (4 Units)
