UFC 318 Predictions & Betting Tips

The BMF title is on the line this weekend as Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway bring their rivalry to an end in a highly anticipated trilogy bout. In the co-main, Paulo Costa faces Roman Kopylov in a fight sure to keep fans on the edge of their seats, and Kevin Holland meets Daniel Rodriguez in an absolute barnburner. We take a look at my best bets on the card this weekend below, with odds thanks to Neds! 

UFC 318 Predictions & Betting Tips 

Dustin Poirier vs. Max Holloway Prediction & Tip 

While the BMF title isn’t legitimate as such it provides an extra bonus for the winner of Sunday’s trilogy between Poirier and Holloway. This weekend’s main event marks Poirier’s final ever UFC bout, bringing an end to a career full of knockouts, wars but no world title. A win will see him retire the ‘BMF’ though, a somewhat fitting way to bring to a close a wonderful career. But Holloway will be hoping that he can rain on ‘The Diamond’s’ parade.  

The first time the pair met was way back in 2012, where Poirier submitted a very raw and inexperienced Holloway. The second bout is a far more reliable base for this fight. In 2019, the duo faced off for a second time but this time with the interim lightweight title on the line. The power difference was evident from the outset with Poirier’s punches garnering a far bigger reaction from Holloway. It was all ‘The Diamond’ early before Holloway rallied late as Poirier began to tire. However, with Poirier’s more damaging strikes, he got the win. That earned him a unification bout with Khabib Nurmagomedov, where he was comprehensively beaten.  

Six years on both men are wearing the damage of long careers and arguably Poirier is the one whose output has waned the most. MMA doesn’t do fairytale endings often as fighters almost always retire on the back of devastating losses. But I believe Holloway’s legendary chin, which was cracked for the first time by Ilia Topuria last year, may finally be on the way out. So I am backing Poirier to get the KO and a rare fairytale finish, but I definitely won’t be going overboard. 

Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov Prediction & Tip 

Paulo Costa is incredibly still ranked despite the fact that since his UFC title fight defeat at the hands of Israel Adesanya, he has lost three of his last four fights. And that sole win was against Luke Rockhold, who retired immediately after. 

Costa is far from clinical but moving forward he is incredibly dangerous, winging shots that carry an almighty punch. But his cardio is horrendous, with the Brazilian often blowing just minutes into a fight. He meets Roman Kopylov here, who has a bit of steam behind him after knocking out Chris Curtis, who won convincingly last weekend.  

Yet despite talking down Costa’s achievements, I think he can upset Kopylov, who hasn’t faced a striker like the Brazilian. The Russian will undoubtedly fight behind the jab but I don’t think he has the footwork to pot-shot his way to a win against Costa. I believe Costa will control the centre and land telling shots on Kopylov, either getting him out of there or doing enough damage to get the nod from the judges. It won’t be pretty but at over $3 he is worth a play. 

Dan Ige vs. Patricio Pitbull Prediction & Tip 

The underdog of the card comes in the form of Patricio Pitbull. The former Bellator champion looked out of sorts in his UFC debut loss to Yair Rodriguez but he is far better than that. The Brazilian is a strong striker with solid grappling. While his opponent Dan Ige pushes the pace and gets in brawls. That will play right into the former Bellator champ’s style. Expect Pitbull to get his first UFC win this weekend.