The first game on Friday night heads to the Gold Coast with the Titans hosting the Warriors. The home side were victorious last week and will want to continue winning to keep their slim Finals hopes alive. The Warriors sit high on the competition ladder and are positioning themselves for a spot in the Top 4. An accurate judgement on how each team is currently performing can be found in the NRL Power Rankings. Assuming each play to their potential, this should be an exhilarating contest.
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NRL Round 23 Preview & Betting Tips
Gold Coast Titans vs New Zealand Warriors
Cbus Super Stadium, Friday 4th August, 6pm (AEST)
The Titans did as the Titans do on Sunday, backing up 2 disappointing losses with an upset victory over the Cowboys. Down on players and playing at home, the Titans needed to produce something special and did in their 22-13 win. Most importantly, they kept their opponents scoreless in the second half, overcoming a 13-10 deficit at the break and showing grit. They were the better team in most areas; they had a 54% share of possession, completed at 82%, averaged 9.8m per carry and had 6 line breaks. In defence, they allowed just 1 line break and missing significantly fewer tackles (26). With only a slim chance of making the Finals, it was another frustrating reminder of what this team is capable of.
The Warriors will come into this game fresh following the Bye, a chance to rest following their 21-20 Golden Point win over the Raiders at home. Dictating for majority of the match, the Warriors allowed 2 tries in the final 2 minutes to send the game to extra time. Here, they demonstrated poise which appeared to abandon them towards the end of regular time and a Shaun Johnson field goal was the difference. To put themselves in this position, despite a lesser share of possession (46%), inferior completion rate (77%), fewer metres made and more missed tackles (37), while also getting a win, says a lot about where this team is at in 2023.
Given the form of each team this year, it is no surprise to see the Titans listed as outsider ($3 vs $1.40). The play of the Warriors this season must be admired. Regularly playing with poise, they have averaged 24ppg in attack and conceded just 18ppg in defence. This is a contrast to the Titans, who have no issues scoring points (23ppg) but fail to halt their opponents scoring (25ppg) over 80 minutes. Despite the Warriors having a slightly better record here than their opponents (49% vs 50%), they have won just once in their past 5 matches at this ground. The Titans have also won their past 3 games against the Warriors and will be relying heavily on that to help them here, as they appeared outclassed in every area.
The Warriors should be fresh for this game; on top of the Bye, they have been on the road only once in the past 5 rounds. The defensive record of the Warriors this season suggests that they have what it takes to limit their opponents’ opportunities. While it is a given that the Titans will score points, the Warriors have proven themselves capable this season of rising above the level of their opponents. This level of maturity has been absent in recent years. It should mean that they are able to cover the line (8.5 points) and create a comfortable (enough) margin of victory.
Warriors -8.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
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Total Points Over 46.5 – Simply put, each side has the attacking ability to ensure the total points is covered.
DWZ & CNK to Score – Watene-Zelezniak has been in tremendous form, scoring 16 total tries of the season (Warriors leader by 8 tries). Nicoll-Klokstad has score in each of the past two Warriors games and his involvement (and confidence) is increasing each week.
SGM Odds: $6 at Picklebet (0.5 Units)
