The first NRL game on Saturday afternoon features the Titans up against the Knights. Both teams have enjoyed improved performances in recent weeks and will look to establish momentum early in this contest. A blockbuster afternoon of action could not get any better and after last night, fans will be desperate for more. Before You Bet is here to analyse what will happen in this fixture, with the aim of finding you a winner or two to add to your enjoyment.
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
NRL Round 11 Preview & Betting Tips
Gold Coast Titans vs Newcastle Knights
Suncorp Stadium – Saturday 18th May – 3pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Titans hosted the Cowboys last Sunday and produced a character-building upset. Heavily impacted by injuries throughout the match, they failed to score any second half points to prevail 20-18. The first half saw them jump to a 20-nil lead and hold that l into HT. They had their fair share of excuses though in the second half, while also demonstrating plenty of toughness and desperation in their defence. The fact that they completed at 85% and missed just 22 tackles indicates just how disciplined they were. They will be disappointed they allowed the Cowboys to concede more total metres per carry but will still take plenty away from the overall result.
The Knights headed to Tamworth to face the Tigers were successful 20-14 in a dour affair. A try just prior to HT saw them take an 8-6 lead into the break and they played with poise in the second half to grab victory. This was highlighted by their 85% completion rate and only 25 missed tackles. They built pressure well and relied upon their defensive structure to get them through the match. They fact that they made almost 300m more than their opponents was also important in setting up victory. Without key attacking weapons they need to play with such discipline if they are to be victorious in their matches.
Match Prediction
Injuries to key players have dramatically impacted the Titans chances of winning this match. They are without Brimson, Foran, Sami and Smith-Shields all missing from their starting team last week. This has forced Hasler to move Verrils to halfback; weakening one area to strengthen another is never ideal. The Knights also have their challenges with Gamble (injury) and D.Saifiti (injury) absent. It hasn’t impacted their price though, as they are listed as strong favourites to win the match ($2.65 vs $1.48).
Defence is a key part of the Knights game and the fact that they only concede 18ppg in this area compared to the Titans 27ppg suggests it could be a point of difference. This has added importance when both teams average 17ppg in attack. The Knights deserve favouritism, but the Titans are not without hope. News of the retention of Fifita is bound to lift the confidence of this team.
While there is a slight lean towards the Knights, it is better to invest around this game being a close contest. It will go against the recent history; of the past 5 matches, the average winning margin is 16.6 points and interestingly, the home team hasn’t lost the past 12 matches between these two sides. With home ground advantage removed and both teams struggling at this ground (Titans 35% vs Knights 45%), invest around either team winning this contest.
Either Team By 10.5 Points or Less
$2 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
The first option is added to this selection for value. As for the total points, the past 5 matches between these two sides have seen an average of 54.2 points scored. While their 2024 totals suggest this may not be the case, their ability to attack with ‘flair’ may open things up and resume normal transmission for each side.
Either team by 12 points or less
Total Points Over 44.5
SGM Odds: $3.80 at Ladbrokes (0.5 Units)
