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2024 AFL Qualifying Final Preview & Betting Tips
Sydney vs GWS
Saturday September 7th, 3:20pm AEST, SCG
Weather: 20 degrees, sunny
Odds: Sydney ($1.62) vs GWS ($2.30)
Line: Western Bulldogs -7.5
Points: 172.5
After losing five out of six games between Rounds 16-21, Sydney steadied to win their last three games of the season to secure their first minor premiership since 2016. The Swans beat Adelaide by 31 points in what was a show of promising signs as Sydney kicked over 100 points for the first time in six weeks.
With a top four position already secured going into Round 24, GWS withdrew Toby Beford (calf) and Brent Daniels (back) late before the start of play but still put up a solid effort in tricky conditions in Ballarat. The Giants were within 11 points at three quarter time but managed to kick just one goal in the final quarter to go down by 37 points.
Bedford has failed to recover for this week, but the Giants have some quality inclusions with Brent Daniels, Lachie Ash and Isaac Cumming back into the side this week.
Sydney have some big ins of their own with Isaac Heeney, Tom Papley, Tom McCartin and Justin McInerney returning to the 22. Taylor Adams headlines the omissions as the pressure is right on for a spot in the Swans side.
The two Sydney teams have some of the best statistical profiles in the competition, with the winner of this clash putting themselves in a prime position to win the premiership.
Sydney are the highest scoring team in the competition, averaging 97 points per game this season, with 12 scores above 100 points. The Swans attacking game is even better at the SCG where they average 104 points per game with a 9-2 record.
The Giants are ranked 1st in the AFL for tackles, 1st for rebound 50’s and 2nd for disposals. Their ability to slingshot from their back half and generate scoring opportunities makes them one of the most dangerous teams in the competition, especially on a small SCG.
The Swans are also dangerous out of the back half, but are the number one team in the competition for scores from turnover, 1st for scores from forward half, 3rd for scores from stoppages and 6th for scores from centre bounce. If the Swans get on top at the coalface, they’re going to make life incredibly difficult for the Giants.
Match Prediction: The Swans have won five of their last six games against their crosstown rivals, including both fixtures in the home & away season this year. However when it comes to September action, the Giants have had the wood over their older brother. GWS are 3-0 in finals games against Sydney, and will be eager to send a massive statement on the opening weekend of the finals series.
While their styles are very different, one thing that remains consistent between GWS and Sydney are close fixtures. The last nine games between these two sides have been decided by an average margin of 21 points. Both sides have shown their capacity to perform in September over the last two seasons, so we should be in for a thrilling clash on Saturday afternoon.
Either team to win by 24.5 points or less
$1.82 (1.5 Units)
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Tom Green 30+ Disposals: Remarkably he didn’t make the All-Australian squad, but Tom Green has had a stellar 2024, averaging 30 disposals per game. Green has recorded 37 and 40 disposals in his last two games, and loves playing in September. On the Giants inspired run to the Preliminary Final last year, Green led the way recording 35, 29 and 31 disposals in his three finals games last season.
Errol Gulden 30+ Disposals: Errol Gulden lifts in Sydney Derbies, winning the last three Brett Kirk Medals. His last five games against the Giants have seen him record 41, 29, 32, 27 and 33 disposals and the All-Australian will be crucial to Sydney’s hopes on the weekend.
Chad Warner Anytime Goalscorer: Chad Warner is another Swan who lifts against his crosstown rivals, having kicked a goal in his last four games against GWS. Warner has averaged over a goal a game this season, kicking 32 goals from 22 games.
SGM Odds: $5.50 at BoomBet
