Sydney and Gold Coast meet this Saturday for their second match-up of the year. The Suns are effectively out of AFL finals contention and the Swans will need to win big to ensure they still have a chance at the 8.
We bring you our AFL preview, best bet and value Same Game Multi for the Swans vs Suns clash below!
AFL Round 22 Preview & Betting Tips
Sydney vs Gold Coast
Saturday 1:45pm AEST, August 12th, SCG
The Swans started their “Life after Buddy” era in the best possible way last week as they got the better of their cross-town rivals GWS 96-85. In a game that many predicted to fall the way of the Giants, it was the accuracy in front of goal that led Sydney to a 66-48 half-time buffer, kicking 11 goals without a miss over the first two quarters. The Swans were able to put 96 points past a Giants defence that had been averaging 62 opposition points over their previous five games. On their own defensive end, Sydney managed to force 90 turnovers which will hold them in good stead this week against the Suns who average the most turnovers of any AFL team.
The Swans win keeps their finals hopes alive, with the same number of wins as the Crows, Bombers and Cats. But with results very much up in the air for all teams vying for spots Sydney will need to take care of business to give themselves the best possible chance at playing finals footy.
The Suns prolonged their unique record of never making finals with a 28-point loss to the Adelaide Crows in round 21. Following the sacking of coach Stuart Dew after round 17 this year the Suns have gone 2-2 with an impressive win against the 3rd placed Brisbane Lions just two weeks ago. Unfortunately though it was too little, too late for Gold Coast who once again will spend September in front of the TV instead of out on the park.
Most books have this game coming in at 19.5 in favour of the Swans who don’t have a particularly great record ATS at home (4-5) in 2023. With that said it is still miles better than the Gold Coast away record (2-8) and with our model giving the Swans an expected winning margin of 20+ I believe the line is a good solid option. Sydney are averaging 94.8 points at home this year with the Suns conceding a tick under at 93.7 opposition points on the road. These numbers are significant especially when factoring in how good the Swans defence is at the SCG, where in only 2 of 9 games played there this year have Sydney allowed more than 80 points to their opposition. Gold Coast managed only 61 points against the Swans at Metricon in round 1 this year.
Sydney -19.5
$1.90 (1 unit)
Same Game Multi
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Gold Coast team total UNDER 78.5 - The Suns have passed this mark in only 1 of their last 6 games and the Sydney home defence is amongst the best in the league.
Sydney -13.5 - The Swans average winning margin in 2023 is 41.8 and even without the 171 point win against West Coast the number is still over 20.
Errol Gulden to kick a goal - Gulden has kicked 4 goals in his past 3 games and also put one through the big sticks in the first match-up with Gold Coast earlier this year.
Odds: $2.75 at BoomBet
