NRL Super Saturday concludes with a blockbuster contest between the Storm and Roosters. In an early preview of what is to come in the NRL Finals, the Roosters will head south to face the competition-leading Storm team. There is no shortage of confidence from either team and the chance to land a ‘mental blow’ with a win, will be at the forefront of their minds. Before You Bet is here to take a comprehensive look at the match ahead and breakdown what could occur, as each team aims to secure 2 competition points.
2024 NRL Round 20 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne Storm vs Sydney Roosters
AAMI Park – Saturday 20th July – 7:35pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Storm had a week off in Round 19 following their commanding 40-28 victory over the Tigers. Despite conceding a high number of points, there was never a doubt that the Storm were a chance of losing control of the match. They were the superior team in every area and played like it. 4 second half tries created a comfortable margin, with 2 tries to their opponents in the final 10 minutes only flattered them on the scoreboard. Despite having just 46% possession and completion at 74% (still better than the Tigers), they managed 10.1m per carry, 553 PCM’s and made 10 line breaks. It was evident that they were a class above their opponents, and they never really got out of second gear.
The Roosters also enjoyed a week off in Round 19 with the Bye and were also victorious prior to that. They hosted the Dragons in Round 18 and obviously had a point to prove. Despite a resolute start by their opponents, the Roosters demonstrated their class on both sides of the ball, eventually prevailing 42-12. They put themselves in strong attacking positions and relied upon stubborn defence to limit their opponents’ points. With an equal share of possession, they completed at 83%, made significant more metres, averaged 9.9m per carry, had 655 PCM’s, and created 5 line breaks. Missing just 23 tackles and allowing 7.6 per carry highlight the positive attitude of this talented team.
Match Prediction
There is little between these two sides. Despite winning just 1 of the past 10 against the Storm and having a 33% record at this ground (only 2 wins since 2011 vs Storm 76%), the Roosters are listed as favourites ($2.15 vs $1.70). A lot will depend on whether Grant lines up following Origin. His inclusion will have a major impact on how this game plays out; his creativity but also his defensive capability makes him a vital player.
The Roosters are expected to play all 4 of their Origin stars and are boosted further by the return of Sua’ali’i and Radley to their starting team. They are a formidable team on paper and execute accordingly. You can be sure that coach Bellamy will be thinking of the perfect plan to nullify their attacking weapons; their halves can be vulnerable at times and plenty of pressure is expected to be coming their way. As much as they will target this area in particular, the middle is also crucial for both sides. This is where the Storm appear to have an edge but discredited the Roosters ability in this area at your own risk.
The visitors record this season is also superior to their opponents on both sides of the ball; they average 30ppg in attack compared to the Storms 27ppg and concede 17ppg vs the Storms 19ppg. Seeing the Storm concede so many points against the Tigers indicates that they are not performing to a suitable standard; they also conceded 28 points vs Knights (Round 14) and 24 points vs Warriors (Round 15) and Dolphins (Round 16). This indicates that the Roosters are better positioned to win this match. Rather than invest on them outright – there is plenty of value on 1-12 ($3.20) if you are interested – the safer option is to invest on this game being a close contest.
The average winning margin in their past 5 games is 9.8 points, with 3 decided by 6 points or fewer. In an early preview of the Finals, we may just see the tight contest we are accustomed to seeing in September.
Either Team by 8 points or Less
$2.25 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
The first two options speak for themselves when you read the ‘Verdict’. To add to the total points option, the average number of points scored in matches between these two teams in their past 5 meetings is 35 points; only once has there been more than 36 points scored. Sua’ali’i is the risk; he isn’t a noted try scorer this season (just 2 tries from 12 games) but he is a strong attacking threat. You can ensure that, should he have the opportunity close to the line, he will be taking it to make up for his absence in recent weeks.
Roosters 1-12
Total Points Under 46.5
Sua’ali’i to Score
SGM Odds: $21 at Ladbrokes
