The Saints can book a ticket to the 2023 AFL Finals series with a win over the Cats at Marvel Stadium on Saturday night, while the Cats are playing for their lives in 2023 after what's been a poor attempt at a premiership defence to date. Check out our full preview and betting tips for the Round 23 clash below.
Also, we're providing previews and best bets for every game of the 2023 season, so make sure to check out our AFL Tips page regularly to stay up to date
AFL Round 23 Preview & Betting Tips
St Kilda vs Geelong
Marvel Stadium, Saturday 19th August, 7.25pm (AEST)
The Saints bounced back from a disappointing loss to Carlton in Round 21 with an impressive win over the Tigers at Marvel Stadium on Sunday. They kicked five goals in each of the first two quarters to take a commanding lead into the main break before putting it in cruise control in the 2nd half.
Star forward Max King was back to his dangerous best, booting six goals in the win while maligned small forward Jade Gresham played one of his better games of the year with 22 touches and three goals. The Saints had contributors across the ground, with Rowan Marshall, Seb Ross, Jack Sinclair, Zaine Cordy and Callum Wilkie all among the best as well.
St Kilda battled an extensive injury list early in the season but seem to be getting healthy at the right time of year. Only Dougal Howard and Zak Jones will be missing from a potential best 22 this week.
The Cats desperately needed a win on Friday night against the Magpies to put themselves in a good position to make the 2023 Finals. After shooting out to a 22 point lead in the first quarter, they conceded 10 goals to five in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, as Collingwood ran out eight point winners.
Jeremy Cameron was at his scintillating best, booting seven goals in the loss but the Cats midfield struggled to assert themselves on the contest, particularly through the middle stages of the game.
Those midfield stocks could be bolstered this week with the potential return of Cam Guthrie while key forward Tom Hawkins is also in line for a return pending a successful fitness test.
The Cats start as slight 7.5 point favourites at Marvel Stadium but I’m leaning towards the Saints at that line. The Saints were the last team to beat the Cats in season 2022, back in Round 9 at Marvel Stadium. The Saints were 10 point winners that night on the back of standout games from Brad Crouch, Jack Sinclair and Jade Gresham.
Callum Wilkie kept Jeremy Cameron to just one goal that night, and the lockdown defender is coming off impressive outings against Charlie Curnow and Jack Riewoldt, allowing just two total goals in those games. Back the Saints defence to get the job done here.
St Kilda +7.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
Jack Sinclair 25+ Disposals - Sinclair has had the ball on a string in the last few months and was one of the Saints best when they defeated the Cats in Round 9 last year. He racked up 31 touches that night and has racked up at least 25 in eight of his last 10 games.
Sebastian Ross 20+ Disposals - Ross proved to be the missing cog in the Saints midfield as he returned to the lineup from injury with a near best on ground performance against the Tigers. He racked up 25 touches in the win and averages 21.0 this season.
Under 160.5 Total Points - The Saints have defended Marvel Stadium incredibly well this season. They are the No.2 ranked defence in the competition this season, allowing just over 70 points per game. At Marvel Stadium, that number drops to just 61.8.
SGM Odds: $3.80 at BoomBet
