The Saints will take on the Blues from Marvel Stadium on Sunday from 3.20pm. We have you covered with a full preview and betting tips for the Round 21 clash below.
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AFL Round 21 Preview & Betting Tips
St Kilda vs Carlton
Marvel Stadium, Sunday 3.20pm (AEST)
Given their recent form, it’s hard to believe that the Saints still, somehow, found themselves in the top five at the beginning of Round 21. In the past few months of football they have been fortunate to get over the line against the bottom three teams on the ladder in North Melbourne, West Coast and Hawthorn, while losing the rest of their games in that same span.
The Saints will likely need to win two of their remaining four games to make finals this season, which is a massive task given their run home sees them play the Blues, Cats and Tigers at Marvel followed by a final round trip north to face off against the Lions.
After battling injury throughout the season, the one thing in favour for the Saints is that they at least look to be getting healthy at the right time of year. Injured players Bradley Hill, Dougal Howard, Max King, Cooper. Only Seb Ross, Daniel McKenzie and Zak Jones remain on the injury list for the Saints, as Max King, Tim Membrey, Jack Hayes and Brad Hill were all available for selection this week.
It’s a contrasting case at Princes Park at the moment, as the Blues deal with an extensive injury list while making their charge towards finals. Adam Cerra and Mitch McGovern were the latest casualties in the win over the Pies in Round 20, joining the likes of Harry McKay, Sam Walsh, Matthew Kennedy and Jack Silvagni on the sidelines.
Despite the injury list, the Blues are absolutely flying at the moment. They have won their last six games on the trot, culminating in a great win over ladder leaders Collingwood at the MCG on Friday night. That win, however, was put slightly into perspective earlier in Round 21 as the Hawks also beat a pretty lackluster Pies side by 32 points.
The Blues are certainly deserved favourites given the two teams form at the moment, but I do think there is some value in the +9.5 point line for the Saints. Carlton will be coming off a taxing game with a lot of emotional swings, and aren’t close to being full strength. The Saints found some form on offence last week, which is where they were desperately lacking, and we all know they love playing at Marvel.
Either way, I’m choosing to stay away from the line here and opting for the overs instead. I think the Saints made it clear last week that they want to play a more attacking brand of football, putting up 100+ points for just the 2nd time this season. Back them to carry on that style at the score friendly Marvel Stadium again.
Over 163.5 Total
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
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Brad Crouch 25+ Disposals - Despite the Saints relatively poor form as a team over the past month, Brad Crouch has been one of the standout midfielders in the competition over that period. That form culminated in a 32 disposal, 3 goal best on ground performance against the Hawks last weekend. Has had 25+ in nine straight games.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera - The young half back has quickly become one of the most important players for the Saints with his reliable ball use and elite running power. Had a game high 33 in the win over the Hawks and has had 25+ in 7 of his last 12.
Cooper Sharman 2+ Goals - With Max King back in the line-up this week, I think Sharman could fly under the radar a bit up forward. Since being inserted as a forward, Sharman has kicked seven goals in his last four games and should stretch an already thin Blues defence that is missing McGovern.
SGM Odds: $7.50 at BoomBet
