Round 21 of the 2024 AFL Season concludes on Sunday afternoon at Marvel Stadium in Melbourne when the Saints play host to the Brisbane Lions, with the game proving to be quite important for the Lions, who are flying and looking to press claims for a top two spot on the ladder. Adam Page has a full preview and betting tips for the clash!
2024 AFL Round 21 Preview & Betting Tips
St Kilda Saints vs Brisbane Lions
Sunday 4:40pm AEST, August 4th, Marvel Stadium
liking what I am seeing from the Saints in recent weeks. Yes, wins over West Coast and Essendon, so hard to jump up and down with those form lines, but you can only beat what is put in front of you and they have been impressive, with their ball use beyond centre being much better vs earlier in the season. I do think Max King and his injury has paved the way for the cohesion between the midfield and forward line to be much better. They are playing with freedom and do get Mattaes Phillipou back. He's the spark in the midfield IMO and can cause damage.
The Lions, alongside the Dogs and Hawks, are the form side in the comp as it currently stands. They are flying and are going to push hard to finish top two at the end of the regular season given how hard they are to beat at The Gabba. Super win against the Gold Coast Suns in the Q Clash last week given the injuries they had, but that said, I thought the Suns were very poor, again, with their forward 50 entries and didn't take advantage of their depleted rivals. Like the Swans, they have been up a long time...are they due for a loss?
Match Prediction: In terms of value, this is the game I am most interested in. The Saints have won two on the bounce, admittedly over West Coast and an out of form Essendon, but each win has been impressive and their ball movement has been much better, especially forward of centre. IMO, Brisbane are in a similar boat to the Swans. They have been up for 3 months and potentially need a loss before the Finals. They do get some ins but I just feel they are ripe for the Saints to pick off and for mine, are the value bet of the round.
St Kilda to Win
$2.40 (1 Unit)
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St Kilda to Win: As stated above, I do like St Kilda, especially with their ball movement. I think they can cause damage, especially under the roof at Marvel.
Lachie Neale 25+ Disposals: He has been a big reason why the Lions are in the form they are, and a third Brownlow is certainly within reach if he maintains form. I think he'll another fat day getting the pill.
Mattaes Phillipou 20+ Disposals: Love him back in the team and back in the midfield. He is the spark the Saints midfield need, who do seem one paced. He can cause havoc with his speed.
SGM Odds: $4.75 at BoomBet
