Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Sha Tin in Hong Kong on Sunday, March 16th.
The 2019 Hong Kong Derby (2000m) heads up the card and the HK$18million feature event concludes the four-year-old classic series.
We've previewed every race on the card and offered our selections below!
SHA TIN RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 2 Dan Control
Best Value: Race 3 Valiant Dream
RACE 1
Mr Croissant will be hard to hold out here on the back of a good debut behind Prince Of Gems. That race has already produced two subsequent winners and Ryan Moore jumps aboard for the ride today. Drawn wide so could go back but with even luck he'll be in the finish. I think he's short enough though. Look for Flying Victory to shoot out of the widest barrier and zoom across to the lead. He's trialle well leading into his debut today and Purton takes the ride for Frankie Lor. If he can find the rail I think he'll be very hard to run down, so he goes on top. Two at knockout odds to include are Buddies and Chicken Dance, who were both well-beaten in their respective trials but weren't asked to do a lot. De Sousa and Teetan pick up the rides on those two which is some indication they're not hopeless. $21 and $34 respectively. Backing Flying Victory with small bets on the two roughies.
Value: Buddies $21 & Chicken Dance $34
RACE 2
With the John Moore-trained Dan Control here, who comes across from Ireland and makes his Hong Kong debut today. He trialled stylishly with Purton aboard and he stays in the saddle for raceday today. Purton and Moore have teamed up 23 times this season for 11 winners at a ROI of 77%. Aerohappiness has placed in five of his six starts at this track and distance and will be around the mark again with just 53kg, but he's just struggling to break through for another win. Winning Supreme will go forward from the inside gate and can run well.
RACE 3
Tricky little race but there's three I'll be backing with my betting strategy. Trust Me was absolutely butchered on debut at Happy Valley when beaten 11L, but he bounced back with a really good effort last start over the 1000m straight course here at Sha Tin. He jumped slowly, was held up between the 400m-200m, and then finished off nicely to grab 2nd. Two horses have already come out of that race and won, and the huge thing in his favour today is Purton replacing Eddy Lai. Jockey changes in Hong Kong literally don't get any bigger. Drawn well, $5.00 looks a terrific price. Meridian Genuis draws barrier 1 with SDS aboard and he finished off really well over 1000m last start too. Prior to that he was beaten a head over. 1200m looks to suit today and he should be right in the finish. The clear value in the race is Valiant Dream. He's on debut today. He ran 2nd in three trials before what seemed a poor trial last time we saw him. But that was on a slow track on the dirt and if you look back at his grass trials prior to that, he was going particularly well. I think the market's got this wrong and he'll put himself right up on the speed. $20 is huge odds!
RACE 4
Tough race so just playing small on two horses. Circuit Three was an eye-catcher on debut behind Prince Of Gems over 1200m but failed terribly last start over 1400m. They progress up to 1600m today and he's drawn wide again. He's not the best out of the gates so he'll get a long way back but if he can reproduce his debut run, he'll hit the line strongly. Karis Teetan chooses to stick with him so that tells me last start may have just been an anomoly. We're getting double figures about him today. Flash Famous bounced back to form last start after a string of poor runs. He finished off strongly and that was over this track and distance. He's since won a trial and SDS jumps aboard today. He's also drawn wide so look for him late. $8.00 for him.
RACE 5
Craig's Star looks a great price here at $5.00. He ran 2nd to the hugely talented Full of Beauty two starts ago and was only defeated a neck last start. He steps up to 1400m for the first time today and karis Teetan jumps on for the first time too. Drawn perfectly in barrier 4 and really gets his chance to break through today. De Sousa jumps off Craig's Star to keep the ride on Voyage Star, who was a good winner last start over 1200m. Up 4kg in weight and drawn wide, which makes it much harder today. Chairman Lo draws well again in barrier 2 but he's had his chances to win in recent starts. Sam's Love will hit the line hard from back in the field.
RACE 6
Tough race but don't mind the chances of Dynamic Eagle at the bottom of the weights with just 52.5kg. He won with 60.5kg and a wide barrier in Class 4 three starts ago and was then promoted to Class 3. His first run in this company was a horror show; he drew barrier 1, copped a severe check, was held up in the straight and once he got clear at the 200m he hit the line well. Last start he drew barrier 13 and ran home well again to be beaten less than a length by Tianchai Monster, who lines up in the Derby later on. Drawn better again in barrier 4 today and expecting him to go close at each way odds. Classic Beauty and Vincy finished ahead of him in 2nd and 3rd and have claims once again.
RACE 7
Full Of Beauty is a potential star and undefeated in four career starts. Rises to Class 2 for the first time but should be winning again. If you don't want to take the $1.40, Wah May Friend appeals as a strong place chance at $3.50. He's got a terrific first up record with three wins and a 2nd from five starts. Look for him to run well fresh.
RACE 8 - HONG KONG DERBY
Click here for our runner-by-runner preview of the Hong Kong Derby!
RACE 9
Tricky little race. Invincible Missile could be an absolute moral here, but he could also be bumping into a couple of smart ones, which makes it an interesting race. He finished very strongly to run 3rd last start and he's since trialled like a bomb. In that trial, he ran down Flying Victory, who was heavily backed in the first race today. Chicken Dancer also finished back in the field in that trial and he ran an absolute bottler in Race 1, so the form out of the trial is very good. Looks very hard to beat. Super Star comes off a Class 4 win where he ran his final sectional in 22.32 seconds. Those have been some pretty decent form races he's been competing in and he too rises to Class 3 for the first time. Looks more than capable of winning.
RACE 10
Tornado Twist returns to Sha Tin, where he is undefeated from three starts. He just wasn't suited at Happy Valley last start, where he carried a big weight, jumped slowly and struggled to get into the race. Up to Class 2 now so drops down in weight and the big Sha Tin straight should see him very hard to hold out. Solar Patch returns to a more suitable race after failing in the HK Classic Cup last start. Purton jumps on and as mentioned above in Race 2, his record with John Moore is outstanding. He has obvious claims. The value in the race is Star Shine. He comes into this third up from a spell. He's never finished out of the top two when third up, so look for sharp improvement from him.
