Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Sha Tin in Hong Kong on Sunday, March 16th.
The 2019 Hong Kong Derby (2000m) heads up the card and the HK$18million feature event concludes the four-year-old classic series.
The field has a capacity 14 runners engaged and we've given our thoughts on every one of them below!
2019 HONG KONG DERBY PREVIEW & BETTING TIPS
Speed Map
Runner-by-runner analysis
Waikuku: Likely to start favourite in the race and really should be based on what he's produced in recent starts. He's a winner of five of his seven starts overall; since arriving in Hong Kong he's produced four wins and a 2nd, where he was defeated by a nose on his HK debut. He started from barrier 12 last start and carried 60.5kg and still put a Class 2 field away easily, which doesn't happen in Hong Kong unless you're very good. Trained by John Size, ridden by Joao Moreira, he is clearly the one to beat. Now the big query with him is the fact he presented lame at the start of this week and missed a day of work. The vets have inspected him all week and cleared him of any issues and he galloped a few days ago without a problem. Even so, being lame the week of a major race isn't the ideal situation. He'll give them a start from barrier 14 but if he's at his best, he'll win.
Dark Dream: Slightly surprised he's as close in the market to Waikuku as he is. The big positive for him is he gets back up to 2000m, which was the distance of his dominant success three starts ago, when he bolted in by 4.5L. The big asterisk next to that run is the fact it rained that day and the track was wet. He won his G1 Queensland Derby in Australia on heavy ground and he clearly relished the wet conditions when he smoked that field back in December. I think he was a touch disappointing last time out when he failed to run down Mission Tycoon, despite having every chance to do so. As mentioned, the step up to 2000m is a big plus, as is the good draw in barrier 8, but on firm ground I think he's got a little bit to find.
Furore: Can't really believe we're getting $6.50 here. He's one I'll definitely be backing. He bolted in to win the HK Classic Mile two starts ago and Hugh Bowman was quickly booked to ride him in the Hong Kong Derby. He then finished hard in the HK Classic over 1800m last time out, running the fastest final two sectionals after beginning from the wide draw. I think he's flying under the radar a touch because of the hype around Waikuku and the fact Dark Dream has been favourite for this race for a few months. He's drawn wide again here in barrier 12 but if Bowman can put him into the race, I think he's a serious chance.
Mission Tycoon: Caused a huge upset last start in the HK Classic, beating Dark Dream by a length. Amazingly, he was sent out enormous odds despite finishing ahead of Dark Dream the start prior as well. That was the race Furore won by 2.5L, which adds to the claims for Furore in this race. Mission Tycoon enjoyed an easy lead when winning last time but he might not find the rail here with Ka Ying Star in the race. Based on his past two starts you'd have to say he's an each way chance.
Ka Ying Star: Did a great job on Hong Kong debut to win over the mile and has since run 3rd on two occasions, behind Furore and then Mission Tycoon. He was easily accounted for by Furore and then had every chance last time so I'd struggle to see him turning the tables today. He does draw well though and looks to get a gun run. Place chance.
Helene Leadingstar: Formerly known as Leicester in Australia, where he won the Group 1 South Australian Derby. He's had three starts in Hong Kong, which have only been fair. Quite often we see ex-Weir horses go to Hong Kong and fail to reproduce the kind of form they showed in Australia. He was good two starts ago in Class 2 company but was outclssed in the HK Classic last start. Drawn wide here, hard to see him winning.
Red Warrior: Has been racing very consistently this preparation with three wins and three placings from eight starts, but all of his form has been at Happy Valley. He came to Sha Tin last start to contest the HK Classic but he sat wide without cover throughout the race and was beaten 6L. Draws a touch awkwardly in barrier 9 here but even with a better draw, he looks a bit outclassed here.
Enrichment: Probably a good roughie to throw in at $17. Ryan Moore flies in to ride for John Size - the same combination that won last year's Derby with Ping Hai Star. Three starts ago he ran 2nd to Good Standing, with Time To Celebrate back in 3rd. Both of those horses have since won or gone very close again. Enrichment then won well over this distance in Class 2 company and was solid again last start when dropped back to 1800m. Big jockey change today with Moore going on and draws ideally in barrier 5 for a perfect trip. Include.
Harmony Victory: Former Brazillian Group 1 winner. He was great in his Hong Kong debut back in September but except for one win in November, he's been fairly disappointing. Draws well in barrier 1 and Silvestre De Sousa takes the ride on him for the first time which is an upgrade on who he's had on in his six starts since arriving. He actually ran similar sectionals to Dark Dream in the HK Classic Mile, in fact he ran the second-fastest final sectional behind the winner Furore. He'd need to improve on what he showed in teh HK Classic Cup last start though.
Mr So And So: Put two wins together over 1400m earlier this season but since then has been disappointing. He's proven difficult to settle during the run, which will prove detrimental when running over 2000m for the first time. Not today.
Ho Ho Khan: Put three wins in a row together over the 1800m here between November and January, before finishing midfield in the HK Classic Cup last time out. I don't think his run was as bad as it might have seemed. He ran home in similar sectionals to Furore. Drawn wide today which means he'll go back and he might struggle to chase them down from back there in this class of race. James McDonald flies in for the ride which is a positive.
Gold Chest: Arrived in Hong Kong undefeated from two starts in the UK, including a Listed win over the mile, but hasn't been able to reproduce that in his new surroundings. Was heavily outclassed in the Hk Classic Cup and even though he ran 2nd last start, he was beaten 4.3L. Not here.
Tianchai Monster: Genuine roughie that could be included in trifectas and first fours. He's won three of his past four starts and the one he lost, he copped a bad check in the straight. Take that run out and his form looks quite good, even if it's been in lesser class than this. He's undefeated over the track and distance and draws well in barrier 6. Craig Williams flies in to take the ride and even though this is a steep rise in class, he's not without a place chance in his current form.
Sunny Speed: Interesting runner. He comes into this much fresher than the rest of the field, having only had two starts in Hong Kong. He made good improvement from his first start to his second, with a promising run behind Waikuku last start, beaten 2.5L. His sectionals didn't match the winner's but he did run home better than the likes of Enrichment. Should realistically still have some improvement to come given it's only his third run of the preparation and John Moore will have him up to the mark. Well drawn and could definitely outrun his $34 quote.
Selections
Quite simply, if Waikuku turns up in his best form, he'll probably be winning this, but the fitness query during the week has scared me. For that reason, I'd rather take $6.50 each way about Furore, with $2.50 on offer for him to place, which is a better price than Waikuku to win. Dark Dream looks short enough given he really would like the track a bit softer. He's a classy horse though and gets Purton on, a good draw and a suitable rise in trip. Best roughie in the race looks to be Enrichment, with Sunny Speed and Tianchai Monster place chances at huge odds.
1st FURORE
2nd WAIKUKU
3rd DARK DREAM
4th ENRICHMENT
