After a string of second place finishes, we landed a nice winner last week in the Aurie's Star Handicap with a bob of the nose on the line! Our resident horse racing expert is back once again to bring you some more great horse racing betting tips.
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Caulfield Race 7 - Back to Caulfield P.B. Lawrence Stakes 1400m - Group 2
SMOKIN' JOEY is racing in fantastic form, returning from Group 1 racing in Queensland to record back to back victories at his past two starts. Last start he settled back and covered ground but was still far too good in the Group 3 Bletchingly Stakes, winning by 2 lengths. The step up to 1400m is probably ideal and draws a nice barrier today so could even position a bit further forward with cover. 59kgs no problem, especially on this weight scale, and he is the one to beat.
THE CLEANER resumes from a fairly long spell today and will no doubt go to the front and set a decent tempo. Has a great first up record but definitely finds it easier to win at Moonee Valley rather than Caulfield or Flemington. I expect him to lead and be tough to run down but finish a length or two off the winner.
MOURINHO surprised everybody last prep when he won the Group 2 Australia Stakes first up over 1200m. Went on to win a Group 2 over 1800m at Caulfield and I think that is when we will see the best of him. He does have the ability to cause an upset first up as mentioned, but I will wait until he gets to 1600m-1800m.
DIBAYANI is the horse I am very keen to watch. Highly talented import from Hong Kong, with previous form behind Able Friend and Designs On Rome. His best form is over 1600m-2400m and the 1400m might find him out today. He will need the run as he is resuming off a very long break and could find this a bit sharp. Keen to see his final 200m though.
BIG MEMORY is another stayer that resumes from a spell today. Doesn't have a great first up record and generally needs a few runs to hit top gear. Look out for him later in the prep when he gets out to a longer trip. Was also beaten by Smokin' Joey over 1600m last prep and is worse off at the weights today.
TAIYOO had an absolutely phenomenal prep last time we saw him. From his last 9 races he has 7 wins, one 2nd and one 4th. Does have two wins over 1400m but stretched out to 3200m at his final run last prep where he went down very narrowly. Very interested to see how he has come back and he could be one to spring a little surprise at big odds.
EXCESS KNOWLEDGE had just the two runs last prep which were both wins. His last win was over the likes of Malice and Leebaz, who then went on to win the Group 2 Hollindale Stakes in Brisbane later in his prep. Has had two nice trials leading into this and does have a great first up record (5:2-1-1) so should be ready to fire here. My problem lies with the fact he is a Gai Waterhouse horse resuming (or even running) in Melbourne. The market should tell the story here so keep an eye on that lead.
PETROLOGY was expected to run very well fresh last start when he resumed in the Bletchingly Stakes that was won by Smokin' Joey. He ran well to come from the back and finish 3rd and he would have taken a lot of benefit from that run. 2nd up today and steps up to 1400m today which will suit him more than most here. Barrier 9 means he will go back to the rear and sweep home over the top of them. I think he is a very good chance.
NO TRICKS comes off a win on the Gold Coast. Has had 2 months between races now and drops back from 1800m to 1400m. Will have some residual fitness but will likely need the run before stepping back up in distance.
Verdict
Going to stick with SMOKIN' JOEY here who has the advantage of race fitness on his side. He is racing near enough to career best form and is suited at the weights and by the step up to 1400m. Draws a good gate and should be too slick for many of these horses which will be looking for longer. PETROLOGY comes in as the biggest danger. He will be much fitter today and will appreciate the step up in distance. Behind that it should be fairly even with The Cleaner, Mourinho and Excess Knowledge all able to perform well fresh, while the big watch will be on Hong Kong import DIBAYANI. Absolute blowout chance could be TAIYOO.
1st Smokin' Joey ($4.40 at William Hill)
2nd Petrology ($7.50 at Ladbrokes)
3rd Mourinho ($7.00 at Bet365)
Other bets for Caulfield:
Race 1 - Gingerboy
Race 2 - Iggimacool
Race 4 - Vezalay
Race 5 - Braccenby E/W
Race 6 - Petits Filous
This day could go very well for favourite backers or they might be eating cardboard for dinner!
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
