Ronda Rousey’s highly anticipated return to the cage will take place this weekend in a headline-making showdown. She will go toe-to-toe with fellow MMA icon Gina Carano in a Netflix mega-event. If this were a decade ago, it would have headlined a UFC card, but even though they are both past their prime, there is plenty of interest in how the fight will transpire. Also on the blockbuster card is UFC legend Nate Diaz, facing MMA turned bare knuckle boxing star Mike Perry, and Francis Ngannou makes his return to the cage against Philipe Lins.
MVP MMA Betting Tips: Sunday 17th May 2026
Ronda Rousey v Gina Carano
Two pioneers of women's mixed martial arts meet at bantamweight in a legacy clash more than a decade removed from their respective primes on Sunday (AEDT). Rousey has a 12-2 MMA record, and is known for his lightning-quick submissions, while Carano, a striker, was 7-1 professionally before retiring way back in 2009. ‘Conviction’ is the true definition of an MMA pioneer but at 44 and without a fight for 17 years this is a tall task.
Rousey is a prohibitive favourite for this clash, and I can understand why. The 39-year-old was beaten by the elusive Holly Holm and then battered by Amanda Nunes in her final two MMA fights. However, before that she was a wrecking ball, who nobody wanted to face and with the casual punter is a far bigger star than Carano.
If Rousey comes in with the same game plan as those two fights, however, I can still see her being stopped on the feet, given she doesn’t move her head off the centre line and just rushes forward. However, Carano is equally susceptible to submissions, particularly when her back is taken or an arm grabbed and has limited takedown defence.
That being said I believe the odds are skewed too much towards Rousey, but I am not confident enough to tip the upset. If you are to bet, I would suggest the fight to end in Round 1 as it should be a quick night at the office one way or another. I see Rousey either being made to look like a fish out of water on the feet or Carano looking like she's never grappled a day in her life on the mat against Rousey. Either way, it's a one-sided beatdown.
Fight to end in Rd1
$1.75 (1 Unit)
Nate Diaz v Mike Perry
Mike Perry’s MMA career was nothing to write home about. He was a brawler who lacked heavily grappling-wise, as shown by the fact that he doesn’t have a single submission to his name. Against Nate Diaz this weekend his path to victory is straightforward: put Diaz on the back foot and hit him hard and often. However, Diaz's durability and submission threat provide a serious danger to Perry. If Perry can’t get him out of there early and his cardio isn’t up to scratch, Diaz can produce a late surge and secure a huge upset.
If I thought Diaz would grapple here, I would be backing him with confidence. But at this stage of his career, he is less interested in wins and more interested in a payday, which suggests it is likely to be a kickboxing fight. If that is the case, there is only one winner, and it’s Perry. Given Diaz is notoriously durable I like the play of Perry to win in Round 4,5 or by decision, and at over even money, I feel that is a great bet.
Mike Perry by Rd4, 5 or Decision
$2.20 (3 Units)
Francis Ngannou v Philipe Lins
Francis Ngannou has long terrorised the MMA world due to his insane power. Calling Ngannou the scariest man to ever enter the cage is not an overstatement, and he faces a 40-year-old toiler here in Philip Lins. Lins hasn’t fought in over 40 years and is more of a light heavyweight than heavyweight, making this a horror match-up.
Simply put, I wouldn’t back Lins to beat any ranked UFC fighter and believe Ngannou would likely be champion if he came back into the Octagon even now. His only weakness is grappling, especially given that he made the move to boxing. Yet Lins is a striker and not one with overly heavy hands. So, with nothing to scare Ngannou, I expect this to end in a matter of moments. Back Ngannou to get the KO in Round 1 with confidence, and it is also worth sprinkling on a market on him to finish him inside a minute, when the market comes up later in the week.
Francis Ngannou Round 1 KO
$1.82 (3 Units)
