2024 AFL Round 3 Preview & Betting Tips
Richmond vs Sydney
Sunday 4:00pm AEDT, March 31st, MCG
Sydney moved to 3-0 and held onto second place on the ladder, outlasting Essendon in a 30 point victory in Round 2. It took the Swans until halfway through the last quarter to break the game open, however their electric attacking footy was on display for the entirety of the game as they piled on 131 points.
The Swans were beaten in possessions (-10), clearances (-10), but scored 37 points from defensive 50 chains, which proved to be the difference in the game as Nick Blakey sliced up the Bombers from half back.
Isaac Heeney (32 disposals, 1 goal), Chad Warner (28 disposals, 2 goals) and Errol Gulden (24 disposals, 2 goals) continued their red hot starts to the season as the Swans have showcased their midfield depth despite missing Luke Parker, Callum Mills and Taylor Adams.
Richmond looked like they were on the brink of causing a major upset when they were within seven points of Port Adelaide at three quarter time last week, before the Power blew Richmond away in the final quarter, kicking six goals to two en route to a 30 point win.
The midfield battle looms as the area the Swans will be able to gain a major advantage in this clash. Sydney are ranked 5th for inside 50’s and 6th for contested possessions, while Richmond rank 16th and 11th respectively in both categories. The Tigers are also ranked 17th for clearances, which has been a major issue for them over the past three seasons.
Richmond’s undermanned defence struggled last week as the Power scored from 50.8% of their inside 50’s. Sydney scored from 55.9% of their inside 50’s against the Bombers, and given the efficiency of the Swans forward line this season, they look set to put up another huge score. Sydney are averaging 106 points per game this season, with Richmond conceding an average score of 102 points per game.
Match Prediction: Richmond have been more competitive over the last fortnight, but it’s clear they’re a long way off the better sides of the competition. The Tigers don’t have a midifield that is capable of keeping Heeney, Warner and Gulden quiet, which is going to put their undermanned defence under serious pressure. Sydney had six players kick multiple goals last week, and have kicked over 100 points in their last two games.
The line of -21.5 for Sydney is more than achievable for John Longmire’s side, with their three wins this season all coming by above 22 points. Richmond’s average losing margin this season is 27 points, with two of their three losses coming by above 30 points. The Swans are red hot and won't have any issues getting past Richmond given the form they're in, and this fixture could get ugly.
Sydney -21.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
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Isaac Heeney 25+ Disposals: Isaac Heeney’s move as a permanent midfielder has paid major dividends, with the Swans star producing a superb first three games in 2024. Heeney is averaging 29 disposals per game with returns of 26, 29 and 32 disposals.
Chad Warner 25+ Disposals: Chad Warner has burst out of the blocks to start season 2024, with games of 26, 27 and 28 disposals. Warner has a good track record against Richmond, recording 26 and 27 disposals in his last two games against the Tigers.
Tom Papley 2+ Goals: Papley was a major difference in the Swans win last week, kicking four goals against Essendon. Papley is averaging two goals per game this season, and kicked seven goals across his two games against Richmond last year.
SGM Odds: $3.90 at BoomBet
