The first game of Sunday’s AFL double header takes place at the home of football, with Adelaide looking to keep their place in the top four when they take on Richmond. The Crows will be desperate to bounce back from a loss in their last outing, can the Tigers keep it competitive?
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Tigers vs Crows below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Richmond vs Adelaide Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2025 Round 16
Young Tigers Tiring
After a positive start to the season where they had exceeded expectations with three wins from nine games, Richmond have hit a wall and look set for pain in the back half of the season. The Tigers have lost seven of their last eight games, with defeats by 44 and 79 points in their last two games. Coming up against one of the best attacking teams in the competition, it looks set to be another long day for the Tigers. Richmond recorded -107 disposals, -54 marks, -21 inside 50’s, -10 clearances and -8 contested possessions against the Dogs, if they give up those sort of stats against the Crows, it will be an absolute massacre.
Legitimate contender?
Adelaide’s Round 13 win over Brisbane was a big step to beat a top four side, however their loss against Hawthorn in Round 14 was an equal step backwards, as they capitulated in the second half. There is a grain of salt required with the result given the game was in Launceston, a venue they won’t play in September, however they are 2-5 against the top nine teams in the AFL this season which is difficult to ignore. However they haven’t struggled against the bottom nine teams, with a 7-0 record and an average winning margin of 54 points, with five wins by over 60 points.
The Stats That Matter
Adelaide’s attacking game is one of the best in the comp, and it’s built by a well rounded front half game. The Crows are the 3rd highest scoring team in the league averaging 96 points per game, built by ranking 4th for inside 50’s and 5th for clearances. Adelaide are the number one ranked team for scores from turnover and the number one ranked side for scores from defensive half. They can score in a variety of different ways, which is going to cause Richmond plenty of issues.
On the other hand, Richmond are the lowest scoring team in the AFL (64 points per game) and the second worst defence in the competition (97 points against per game). Richmond conceded 95 points from turnover last week, which makes for scary reading coming up against Adelaide.
Tigers or Crows? Here’s Our Richmond vs Adelaide Tip
The line is remarkably low in this clash given what Adelaide have done from an attacking standpoint this season, especially against the bottom nine sides. Seven wins, zero losses, with the wins coming by margins of 63, 61, 36, 60, 5, 66 and 90 points. Six of Richmond’s nine losses in 2025 have come by 44+ points, with defeats by 44 and 79 points in their last two games.
If the Crows get ascendancy around the ball, leading to territory dominance, this could get ugly for the Tigers in a hurry. Adelaide have 4 of the top 25 goalkickers in the AFL this season, the most of any club in the league. The Crows simply have too much attacking firepower for Richmond to be competitive in this matchup, and will run riot at the MCG on Sunday afternoon.
Adelaide -36.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Richmond vs Adelaide Prop Bet: The Keays To Success
Our Best Player Prop Bet: Ben Keays 3+ Goals
Ben Keays has become one of the best role players in the AFL, as a hard-working half forward. Keays has hit a purple patch of form, with returns of 2, 3 and 3 goals across his last three games. With the ball set to spend a lot of time inside the Crows forward 50, Keays should be set for another big day in front of goal.
Ben Keays 3+ Goals
$3.50 (1 Unit)
Richmond vs Adelaide Same Game Multi
Jordan Dawson 25+ Disposals: Jordan Dawson absolutely loves playing against the Tigers, with returns of 32, 27, 24 and 27 disposals from his last four games against Richmond. After a quiet few games by his standards, Dawson will be looking to bounce back against a struggling Richmond side.
Tim Taranto 20+ Disposals: Tim Taranto has put together a quality season, averaging 25 disposals per game. Taranto has hit the 20+ disposal mark in 13 out of his 14 games this season, and has produced performances of 26, 28, 23, 35, 23 and 36 disposals in his last six games against Adelaide.
Ben Keays 2+ Goals: As highlighted above, Keays has been in hot form with multiple goals in three straight games. Keays has kicked 2+ goals in 5 of his last 7 games, and has kicked 25 goals this season.
Richmond vs Adelaide Betting Odds & Match Info
Weather: Light rain, 11 degrees
Odds: Richmond ($6.50) vs Adelaide ($1.12)
Where to Watch Richmond vs Adelaide?
You can watch Richmond vs Adelaide on 7 and Kayo Sports.
Tail our Richmond vs Adelaide Tips at Dabble!
