Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Randwick on Saturday, September 7th.
We've previewed every race on the card below.
Best Bet: Race 7 - (1) Avilius
Best Value: Race 9 - (8) Scarlet Dream
What a cracking race this is to start the program. There's any number of chances here but I'm going to lean towards the two Waller horses. (3) Funstar lit the racing world up when she debuted back in June and Chris Waller was notably excited about her prospects going forward. She won her second start but only narrowly, before being put out for a spell. She returns from a break today and the only slight query is whether she's race fit, because she's certainly got the talent to win this. Her stablemate (6) Maddi Rocks is the value in the race at $9.00. She ran 2nd to (2) Pandemic at the Kensington track last start when Pandemic was an impressive winner. He did have a run under the belt on that occasion and also had a fairly economical run, while Maddi Rocks went back to the tail from the wide gate and came widest on the turn. I'd expect that form to hold up here, so while I'm certainly including Pandemic in the numbers, I don't think there should be such a difference in price between him and Maddi Rocks.
(12) Lady Demi was a complete horror show last start in a similar race. Prior to that she'd run 2nd in consecutive Highway races here at Randwick, and she would have gone very close had she got any room at all in the straight last start. She carries just 50.5kg after the claim today and draws wide in 15 so she should get plenty of clear air. She'll be hard to beat again and is a reasonable price at $5.50. (5) Nicconita could be the value at double figure odds. He was beaten 2L in a Highway first up but ran the best 800m-200m sectional, before finishing 2.5L off the likes of Subpoenaed at the midweeks last start. Third up today, back to a Highway race and has raced well over track and distance in the past.
The interesting runner here is (6) Jay Jay D'ar who has changed stables from Patrick Payne to Chris Waller. She won on debut at Moonee Valley but took a while to win again. She broke through for her second victory at Mildura last start in a Class 1. I think she's got more talent than her record might suggest and now under the care of Waller, she might be able to prove it. (1) Bleu Roche is another that's had a stable change, this time from Matt Laurie to Peter and Paul Snowden. She's already a Group 3 winner so there's plenty of ability there. She's got a good first up record and all the gear comes off her for today's race. The 60kg first up is a slight query but she's the class runner in the field. (2) Miss Invincible comes out of a strong form race and the stable is going well but I have doubts about her in Saturday grade. Backing 1 and 6.
(3) Baller has so far failed to fire at Randwick but this is the best chance he might ever get. He was very well backed in Group 3 company last start and failed, but he drops back to a BM78 today. He's well and truly good enough to win this IF he produces his best form. If not, (7) All Too Free might be your winner. He's returned in good form and is so far undefeated third up from a spell. (4) Master Ash returns to the track as a gelding today and has been well backed in early markets. Expect him to lead and take plenty of running down.
(2) Libertini will be winning this. She was ultra-impressive in the G2 Silver Shadow Stakes first up, putting away a decent field with immense ease. She's a star in the making and will make light work of this. I'd expect (1) Kiamichi to lead today rather than sit midfield like she did first up, but she probably wants it wetter. Not sure (3) Probabeel should be on the fourth or fifth line of betting at $14 - we didn't see the best of him when he came here last prep but he can turn that around first up today. $3.60 for him to place is probably the play in the race.
(3) Nature Strip looks the one to beat here. The 1000m is his go and he appears to have settled much better in his trials this time in. Over 1200m it would be a different story but I suspect he will be too sharp for them first up today over the short course. The one that's gone under the radar is (1) Redzel. He's got a phenomenal first up record with eight top-two finishes from nine starts. He's got an identical record over the 1000m distance and he's never finished out of the top two from five starts at the track and distance. His trials have both been good and the stable seem to be very confident in the way he's going so it wouldn't shock me at all to see him win this. (6) Zoustyle creates plenty of interest. He's undefeated from six career starts and he's been thrown in the deep end against the very best today. He's the new kid on the block so it's incredibly intriguing to see how he measures up. Happy to back Nature Strip and play exactas/quinellas with those three.
Going to stick with (1) Avilius who I'm confident is the best horse in the race. He was beaten less than a length in the Winx Stakes first up, which ultimately turned out to be an unsuitable race the way it was set up. He's much better suited to 1600m second up from a spell and his second up record is fantastic. His only previous start at this track and distance was the race he won on his Australian debut, when he charged home from the back of the field to win. I think he bounces back today. (15) Girl Tuesday is probably the main danger and the value at $9.00. She returned with a dominant victory on the Kensington track over 1400m and should be even better suited up to the mile today. JMac is a notable jockey booking and she draws well in barrier 2. (12) Unforgotten was held up most of the way in the Winx Stakes first up. She's got a terrific second up record with three wins and two placings from five starts so expect her to finish in the money (paying $2.40 to place). (6) Patrick Erin can be thrown into numbers at a huge price ($101) - he's got a good second up record and a great record at the distance - while (11) Angel Of Truth returns from a spell after taking out the Derby last prep.
I'm going to side with the hype horse (2) Te Akau Shark, who makes his Australian debut after five wins from seven starts in New Zealand. He was simply enormous first up over 1200m when he came from last at the 200m mark to be beaten less than a length. He'll strip fitter for that and be much better up in trip to 1400m. This is his first time racing clockwise so that's always a little query, but if he's going to be competitive in a Cox Plate he'd want to be finishing in the top three here. He's a very exciting horse and it will be interesting to see how he measures up today. (3) Kolding has turned into a completely different horse following his gelding operation. He's undefeated since having his testicles removed and his recent trials have been eye-catching. Expect him to run very well. (4) Dreamforce will go forward and prove very tough to run down, while (14) Eckstein has been trialling in terrific style and isn't without a hope.
(8) Scarlet Dream goes on top first up. She ran 2nd to the likes of Pohutakawa and Verry Elleegant during the Autumn and returns from a spell today. She went close first up over 1400m last prep so she should have no issues with the 1500m first up here. Drawn well and JMac takes the ride so I'm expecting a bold effort from her. (10) Dealmaker was sound first up and should improve today. He ran the best final sectionals of the race last start and the only negative here is the wide barrier. With that said, he's so far proved to be a bit of a cat with just one win from 15 starts so there's that lingering query about him. (15) Re Edit gets in with just 49kg after the claim for Brock Ryan. He won first up at this distance last prep but that was only at Hawkesbury. He went on to be competitive in some good races in Queensland but whether he can do it again back in Sydney is the query. (6) Sweet Deal is absolutely flying but the soft ground may find her out.
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