Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Randwick on Saturday, July 20th.
The track is currently a Soft 6 with the rail in out 12m.
We've previewed every race on the card below!
Best Bet: Race 1 - (3) Mandela
Best Value Bet: Race 8 - (1) Scholarly
(3) Mandela should just win this if he doesn't throw it away like he did on debut. He all but had the race parcelled up when he ran off the track and gifted victory to Exceed The Stars. He's since been back to the trials and was even more impressive than he was leading into his debut. Tipping he will have learnt plenty from the experience on debut and that should see him cross the line first today. (4) Havin' Fun should continue to improve with the step up in trip and the form out of her win last start has stood up through Special Snap. (7) Starla was the well-backed favourite behind Havin' Fun last start. Didn't get much go her way on that occasion but it's worth keeping in mind she started the odds-on favourite in that race. She can bounce back.
I rarely get these races right but I'm going to stick with the favourite (5) Healing Hands here. He's won two of his three career starts and resumes from a spell today. He trialled very well at Muswellbrook leading into this and Greg Ryan comes to the city to take the ride. He's only taken two city rides this season, resulting in a win and a 3rd. Drawn well and should be hard to beat but won't be getting heavily involved because these are notoriously hard races.
Looks a two-horse race. (3) Sir Elton was impressive in winning his first city race last start to keep his unbeaten record intact. He sat on the speed outside the leader and still kicked away to win easily. It was more impressive than the 2L margin may suggest. He carries 60kg today and steps up to 1200m for the first time but he's well placed to win again. (6) Haut Brion Her resumed with a dominant win in midweek grade. She steps up to Saturday grade now but she should take plenty of improvement from that first up run and she also gets a 3.5kg weight difference on Sir Elton. Tactics will play a big part in this but I'm siding with the Waller runner narrowly here.
Happy to stick with (7) Judge Judi each way at $5.50 here. I think there's only three main chances in the race and this mare saluted for us as my best bet of the day first up. I was cautious that day that she would be better suited second up so I'm sticking fat with her today. She's undefeated from three starts when second up and she's run top two in 10 of her 14 starts. Needs a good ride from the tricky gate and the 1400m is some query but we're getting a decent price. (8) The Party Girl ran well in defeat last start. She's in good form overall if you put a line through her run two starts back when she simply got too far back. She can go close in this. The favourite will be (6) Velocita who ran 2nd first up and recorded the best final 800m of the race. She might be better suited next start.
This is a race I absolutely don't want to bet into but (4) Wu Gok goes on top. He was backed for a stack when he won here last start over 1800m on a heavy track. His record suggests the heavier the better for him, yet he doesn't go as well on soft ground. He has had excuses in the past when he's failed on soft ground so I'll give him another chance. He's back up in trip, third up from a spell and gets in with a light weight so there's no excuses for him not to run well again today. (1) Mask Of Time is a complete non-winner but he gets conditions to suit him and drops heavily in grade. (5) Dylan's Romance has won three of his past four starts. I doubt he'll be able to lead all the way at Randwick but he's going well.
Another competitive race but (1) Dr Drill is racing well and goes on top. He was a dominant winner back in Melbourne two starts ago and ran well in defeat last start despite an ugly betting drift. We'll get a good guide on that form behind Wu Gok in Race 5 but in any case, Dr Drill should be able to go close here with the claim for Teo Nugent getting him in well at the weights, all things considered. He drops from a BM88 to a BM78 so looks well graded. (8) Costello could be the value at $11. He didn't do much first up but he's undefeated when second up from a spell and is undefeated at the distance too.
Going to side with (8) Ljungberg here who won by 2L over the 1300m here last start. Prior to that he was beaten a nose by River Bird, who has since won again twice. I think the form is solid and from barrier 4 he should get a lovely run on the heels of the leaders. (5) Notation has won all three starts this preparation and was dominant over this track and distance last time out. No reason she can't win again today with the useful claim for Robbie Dolan. (3) Reflectivity could be the blowout at $23. He was no good last start but he wasn't bad first up and he's won two from three when third up from a spell.
Two I'll be backing here. (1) Scholarly looks over the odds for mine at $11. He resumes from more than a year off the track but it's very Gai Waterhouse-like to have horses like this tuned up and ready to go first up. The booking of Blake Shinn suggests to me that the horse is ready to go and he also resumes with the blinkers back on. They are ominous signs and the horse has five wins from nine starts so isn't short of ability. (10) Travancore has finished in the money at all four starts this prep. Comes off a good run over 1500m at Rosehill last start where he recorded the best sectionals in the race and he gets conditions to suit today. Has two wins at this distance and has won at the track before so should be competitive.
(12) Natalia was backed off the map last start over this track and distance and was beaten a nose after travelling three-wide the trip. Won't have that problem today from barrier 2 and should be peaking third up from a spell. I think she can atone for that defeat. The value could be (11) Power Command who ran 2nd to a useful type in November Man last start, which was eight weeks ago at this track and distance. She's got a good record on soft ground and just needs a good ride from the horror barrier draw. (9) Don't Leave Me Out has two wins from three starts when first up from a spell and she's won both trials leading into this so expect a big run fresh, while (3) Tony Nicconi can improve.
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