Round 23 NRL action begins in Sydney on Thursday with the Rabbitohs hosting the Storm. Experiencing vastly different campaigns, there is still plenty to play for. The Rabbitohs are trying to salvage pride, with some players looking to consolidate a position in the team for 2025. The Storm want to maintain their standing at the top of the competition ladder and with the Panthers breathing down their neck, they will need to win to continue their quest towards the Minor Premiership. Before You Bet is here to take a comprehensive look at the action ahead, breaking down the match, with the aim of finding you a winner.
2024 NRL Round 23 Preview & Betting Tips
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm
Accor Stadium – Thursday 8th August – 7:50pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Rabbitohs travelled to face the Sharks in Round 22 and, despite putting up a fight in the first half and leading 6-4 at HT, were no match when their opponents found some form. It was a low-quality match with the Rabbitohs have the better completion rate with on 73%; no team ever gained control until the Sharks scored 3 second half tries. Unfortunately for the Rabbitohs, they couldn’t build on their tally. Even averaging 9m per carry, making 704 PCM’s and creating 5 line breaks couldn’t manufacture points. Better on defence with just 26 missed tackles, it is evident that a lack of quality in their team is hurting their chances.
The Storm also suffered defeat 18-16 to the Dragons in front of their home fans. Suffering their first defeat since Round 12, the Storm were not at their peak. The timely loss could act as a catalyst to refocus them towards the Finals, and they should focus on improving in areas they would usually dominate. With an equal share of possession, they completed at just 73%, averaged 10.8m per carry, made 636 PCM’s and created 5 line breaks. Unfortunately for their chances of winning, they missed 31 tackles and were unable to turn their attacking domination into points. Providing it is an isolated performance, the Storm will worry little about that outcome and look to regain form here.
Match Prediction
The odds rightly have the Storm as overwhelming favourites ($5.20 vs $1.16) and provide an indication of how this match is likely to play out. After suffering a loss last week, they will be out to bounce back to form; they are a team who rarely loses two consecutive matches.
The Rabbitohs are down on key players and looked vulnerable last week, let alone against the competition leaders who are preparing themselves for the Finals. It is likely that the Round 8 result of a 54-20 win to the Storm will be repeated; the Storm have won 8 of the past 10 fixture between these two sides. The trip to Sydney is unlikely to phase them either. They have a 64% record at this ground compared to the Rabbitohs 57%.
The season averages also indicate that this is the visitors game to lose. The Storm average 26ppg in attack and 18ppg in defence. The Rabbitohs trail both areas significantly, averaging 21ppg in attack and conceding 27ppg in defence. Combine the two differences and it is no surprise that the line has been set at 15.5 points. With the result a forgone conclusion, it becomes a matter of how much the Storm win this fixture by.
The average margin of victory in the past 5 matches between these two sides is 14.2 points but that appears set to be eclipsed. Recent losses by 14 (Sharks) and 20 points (Raiders) provide an accurate reading; they can compete with teams for periods of a match but cannot hold them out forever. Expect the Storm to work hard for momentum early (likely a heavier training week ahead of the Finals) and once they gain the ascendency, should cover the line.
Storm -15.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
The average total in their past 5 matches sits at 41.4 points but their Round 8 fixture surpassed that considerably. As for the try scorers, Paenhuyzen is finding his best and can create or offer support. Hughes is also one of the best support players in the game. Look for him to take control of his team close to the line also. Meaney will find himself on an edge and the Rabbitohs defence here is questionable at best. All are great options.
Total Points Over 51.5
Papenhuyzen, Meaney and Hughes to Score
SGM Odds: $14 at Ladbrokes (0.5 Units)
