NRL Super Saturday will conclude in Sydney as the rejuvenated Rabbitohs host the Sea Eagles. Finding form in the middle stages of the season, the Rabbitohs will be aiming to continue their winning form. The Sea Eagles are ahead of them on the competition ladder (and the NRL Power Rankings) and, despite battling a host of injuries, are aiming to maintain their standing inside the Top 8. This is a crucial clash for both teams and Before You Bet is here to preview the action ahead.
2024 NRL Round 16 Preview & Betting Tips
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
Accor Stadium – Saturday 22nd June – 7:35pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Rabbitohs made a statement that they are not to be forgotten about just yet with a strong 22-12 victory over the Broncos at home. Jumping to an 18-nil lead inside 21 minutes, they held this margin into HT, building on it further in the second half. It took until the 66th minute for the Broncos to cross for their first points. For a team who has the worst defensive record in the competition (prior to this match), it will undoubtedly be a confidence booster for them. In attack, they controlled possession (57%) and completed at 83%, while also making 765 PCM’s. There are still areas to improve upon though and they will want to continue their winning form to climb up the ladder.
The Sea Eagles overcame plenty of issues in their 30-14 victory over the Dragons at home. In a spirited display, they overcame a 10-8 HT deficit to produce 4 second half tries. This linked with an improve defensive effort, as they built pressure with clever attacking kicks and took their chances when presented. With an equal share of possession (50%) and only a slightly superior completion rate (80%), they made 9.3m and 7 line breaks. They were strong defensively too, limiting their opponents to just 7.7m per carry and just 3 line breaks. Much like the Rabbitohs, they took have improvement to make. This only increases the importance of this fixture for both teams.
Match Prediction
Both sides have lost key players to Origin duty. The loss of Mitchell and Murray for the Rabbitohs is outweighed by DCE, Olakau’atu and Jake Trbojevic for the Sea Eagles. All are key players for their team but the omission in certain positions appears to have a larger impact on the visitors. This has the Rabbitohs listed as favourites ($1.47 vs $2.70) and the recent history supports this.
The Sea Eagles have won just 2 out of the past 10 games, with the most recent one coming in Las Vegas in Round 1; the last time the Rabbitohs lost at home against the Sea Eagles was back in Round 9, 2017. The home ground advantage also works against them; the Rabbitohs have a 57% strike rate here compared to the Sea Eagles 43%. It will be closer than those statistics suggest though.
The Sea Eagles have performed to a higher standard in 2024. They have a better attacking (20ppg vs 25ppg) and defensive (30ppg vs 22ppg) record and showed plenty of promise last week. They will need every bit of that resilience this week…and then some, if they are to win this match. This makes the line (6.5) enticing with the Sea Eagles stars absent. Majority of their points come through DCE and the defensive work of Trbojevic in the middle will be missed. It is the most likely outcome in this contest and is the safest option in a game which has numerous possible outcomes.
Rabbitohs -6.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
Three of the past five games between these two sides have been decided by 52 points or more. It is generally a high scoring affair, and the defensive record of each team suggests it could be the same. Gagai and Johnston have both scored 4 tries this season to be equal second for the Rabbitohs. Each are an attacking threat on their edge and will want to add to their record here.
Total points Over 49.5
Gagai and Johnston to Score
SGM Odds: $3.90 at Neds (0.5 Units)
