2024 AFL Round 1 Preview & Betting Tips
Port Adelaide vs West Coast
Sunday 4:00pm AEDT, 17th March, Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide’s 2023 promised so much but ended in huge disappointment in the Semi Finals. A 13-game winning streak saw the Power occupying a top two position on the ladder for the majority of the home & away season, but losses to Brisbane and GWS saw Port fail to win a final.
The Power addressed some weakness during the trade period picking up Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Esava Ratugolea and Ivan Soldo to boost their key defence and ruck stocks. All three recruits will feature for Port Adelaide on Sunday, with a chance to make an early statement in their new colours.
2023 number one draft pick Harley Reid will make his highly anticipated debut after an impressive performance in West Coast’s second practice match. While Tyler Brockman will play his first game in blue and gold after arriving from Hawthorn during the trade period.
The Eagles are set for another long season as they try to rebuild their list, with their lack of up and coming talent still a major concern. For the third consecutive season, West Coast come into Round 1 with a massive injury list with Elijah Hewett, Dom Sheed, Liam Ryan, Matt Flynn, Jai Culley and Rhett Bazzo all unavailable for the start of the season.
Port Adelaide won both of their preseason hitouts against Adelaide and Fremantle, showing no signs of dropping off from the capability that they showed last year. The recruitment of Zerk-Thatcher and Ratugolea will allow Aliir Aliir to play as an intercepting defender rather than a pure lock down defender. This will not only help the Power’s ability to defend, but also springboard attacking forays off the back of Aliir’s ability in the air.
West Coast were ranked 18th for points for (61 points per game) and points against (116 points per game) last season. To highlight how poor the Eagles were in each category, North Melbourne who were ranked 17th in both categories, still scored 239 more points than the West Coast and conceded 356 less points. The Eagles conceded 100+ points in fifteen of their 23 games in 2023.
Match Prediction: Like it will be on many occasions for West Coast, this is a complete and utter mismatch for them. Port Adelaide are positioned to contend for a premiership, while avoiding the wooden spoon would be considered a good result for the Eagles. The Power were the third highest scoring team in the home & away season in 2023, averaging 93 points per game, and they will expose an awful West Coast defence on Sunday afternoon.
West Coast ranked 18th for contested possessions and 16th for clearances, while the Power were the fifth best clearance team in the competition last season. Port Adelaide will control proceedings in the centre of the ground, which will allow them to dominate the territory battle, putting West Coast’s defence under a mountain of pressure. The Power are always tough to stop at the Adelaide Oval early in the season, and this fixture could get ugly.
Port Adelaide -47.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
Zak Butters 25+ Disposals: Butters had a career best season in 2023, averaging 27 disposals per game en route to his first All Australian selection and winning the AFL Coaches Association Player of The Year. Despite Port falling away late in the year, Butters hit the 25 disposal mark in his last eight games of 2023, and recorded 25 disposals when he faced off against the Eagles.
Connor Rozee 25+ Disposals: Like his running partner Butters, Rozee had a career best year resulting in a second straight All Australian selection. Rozee averaged a career best 25 disposals per game, including a 29 disposal performance against the Eagles, and will be looking to make a statement in his first game as captain of Port Adelaide.
Todd Marshall 2+ Goals: Todd Marshall put together a consistent 2023, kicking multiple goals in 12 of his 21 games last season. Marshall has kicked eight goals in his last three games against the Eagles, and will be a tough matchup for the West Coast backline to contain.
Willie Rioli Anytime Goal Scorer: Rioli had a red hot finish to season 2023, kicking a goal in each of his last eight games. Rioli had a slow start at his new club, but kicked 25 goals from his last fourteen games, including two goals against his former side in Round 6.
SGM Odds: $3.10 at BoomBet
