It was a wild first week of the 2024 AFL Finals series with a couple of big upsets and blowout wins. We now turn our attention to Week 2 of the finals where two semi-finals will be played. First up we have Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn at Adelaide Oval on Friday night, and we have a full preview, best bet, and SGM for that clash below!
Also, Before You Bet will be providing free previews and betting tips for EVERY game in the 2024 AFL Finals, so make sure to head over to out our AFL Tips regularly to keep up to date with all of our free content.
2024 AFL Semi Final Preview & Betting Tips
Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn
Adelaide Oval, Friday 13th September, 7:40pm (AEST)
Weather: 16 degrees, partly cloudy
Odds: Port Adelaide ($2.28) vs Hawthorn ($1.62)
Line: Hawthorn -8.5
Points: 166.5
Embarrassing was the key word that was getting thrown around by Port Adelaide fans after their catastrophic 84-point loss against the Cats last weekend. The Power seemingly had everything going for them with home ground advantage, recent H2H advantage, and a Tom Stewart late out; however, for whatever reason they simply didn’t come to play.
It was a tough watch all around for Power fans, and it only became worse when Zak Butters was subbed out with injury at half time. Thankfully, recent reports suggest he’s fit enough to play this weekend and is expected to be named on Thursday night.
The other issue for the Power is their forward line. Charlie Dixon and Esava Ratugolea are arguably the worst 1-2 punch in the competition and were unsighted against the Cats where they combined for 9 disposals, 2 marks, and 0 goals.
In contrast, fans of Hawthorn have every reason to dare to believe. They’ve come from absolutely nowhere in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year, yet here they are in the second week of finals and in as good of form as any team.
The Hawks were simply too good for the Bulldogs last weekend. They trailed by two goals at quarter time but it was all brown-and-gold after that as they outscored the Dogs 86-37 in the final three terms. Jai Newcombe was a standout in the middle again, and 19-year-old Calsher Dear (3 goals) looks like he could be anything.
In less positive news, star midfielder Will Day has been ruled out of Friday night’s match as he continues to nurse a shoulder injury. He’s expected to be available to play next week should the Hawks advance.
Match Prediction: Tough game to have much confidence betting on. You know what you’re going to get from the Hawks with their elite pressure and rat pack buzzing around up forward, whereas it’s anyone’s guess as to what the Power will bring to the table. Will we get the 2nd on the ladder in the regular season Power? Or will we get the Power that lost by 84 points last weekend and that’s lost each of their last four finals matches?
With that said, it’s no surprise to see the Hawks listed as favourites considering the respective performances of these clubs last weekend. And in a really tough betting game, I certainly have more confidence siding with the more consistent Hawks.
Hawthorn -7.5
$1.92 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
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Connor Rozee 25+ Disposals – With Butters underdone and JHF spending more time forward, the Power skipper simply has to get heavily involved on Friday night. I expect a big game from Rozee.
Jason Horne-Francis 1+ Goal – He’s built for finals footy and was almost the only Power player that showed up last week. He’ll be dangerous up forward again here.
Nick Watson 1+ Goal – The Wizard has built into his first season nicely and should be able to capitalise at least once against this vulnerable Power defence.
SGM Odds: $3.30 at BoomBet
