If there’s one AFL Round 19 match you tune into this weekend, make it this one. 2nd placed Port Adelaide host 1stplaced Collingwood at what will be a raucous crowd at Adelaide Oval. Expert Ace brings you his full breakdown and betting tips for the match below!
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AFL Round 19 Preview & Betting Tips
Port Adelaide vs Collingwood
Saturday 7:40pm AEST, July 22nd, Adelaide Oval
It’s a top-of-the-table clash at Adelaide Oval on Saturday night as Port Adelaide host Collingwood in a match-up that has the makings of one of the matches of the year. A lot of water has gone under the bridge since these two teams met at the MCG earlier in the season, and this one is likely to be a little closer as a result. Both teams have had some selection headaches due to the availability of most of their best players being fit for this one, so there shouldn’t be too many excuses for either team. There looks to be some rain on the radar for the afternoon in Adelaide, so hopefully the skies will clear a touch before the game begins.
Brayden Maynard added some spice to the clash by claiming Port Adelaide better be ready for the Pies as they were the ‘top of the table for a reason’, and Ken Hinkley bought into the conversation at his press conference as well. The winning streak of the Power came to an end last week at the hands of Carlton; however it is worth noting the Power did rest a number of players for the clash at Marvel. Dixon, Horne-Francis, McKenzie and Rioli are all welcome inclusions back into the starting 22, and you could argue on their current form, only Darcy Byrne-Jones is missing from their strongest team they could expect to field between now and the end of the season. They steadied the ship in the second half against the Pies at the ‘G a couple of months ago, and they’ll need strong showings from Dixon and Marshall up forward to prevent intercept marks from the likes of Moore, Murphy and even Quaynor. If they cannot bring the ball to ground, it’s going to make life difficult.
It's rare to see three players put in such strong showings in the win to ultimately be dropped, but that was the case for Collingwood’s Ash Johnson, Billy Frampton and Oleg Markov this week. Markov has been named as the sub this week, so we know the Pies will appreciate his run and carry when activated. The ins are solid, with Darcy Cameron and Brody Mihocek returning, and Tom Mitchell making his way back into the starting 22 after himself and Scott Pendlebury played a half each in a dominant win over the Dockers.
The Pies have shown themselves to be able to implement an effective gameplan at Adelaide Oval this year, with tight wins over the Saints and the Crows, however the Power are a bigger challenge. This is arguably the strongest team the Pies have fielded all season, and although the talls in the forward line of Mihocek, Cox and McStay will take time to build chemistry with their leading patterns, I think the mix of speed out of defence and through the middle, and the height advantage up tall whilst still remaining quite mobile, leads me to side with Collingwood as the value here at the odds.
Collingwood to win
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
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Dan McStay 2+ goals – there looks to be some value in the price here on McStay. He should see less ruck time this week with Cameron back, and with Aliir likely to have his hands full with Mihocek, and attention also towards Cox, McStay may fly under the radar here. Interesting prices for 2/3/4 goals if the weather is relatively clear.
Dan Houston 25+ disposals – to make your way through the defensive schemes of the Pies you need to be able to kick long at times, and kick with precision. Houston ticks both boxes, and with Butters under an injury cloud as well, I am happy to look elsewhere in the Power disposal markets.
Jack Crisp 20+ disposals – Crisp has enjoyed the transition back to the half back flank, with the Pies using his run and carry to their advantage. The 20+ appeals.
SGM Odds: $6.25 at BoomBet
