Last on the busy Saturday schedule in the AFL in Round 9 is the Showdown! It’s Port Adelaide vs Adelaide in what shapes up as an intriguing contest. Currently tied at 28-28 in the all-time Showdown H2H record, who can take the lead with a win in this one? Check out our thoughts and tips below!
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Port Adelaide vs Adelaide
Location: Adelaide Oval
Date: Saturday, 10th May
Time: 8:10pm (AEST)
Odds: Port Adelaide $2.65 vs Adelaide $1.48
Line: +13.5
Points: 180.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Dabble. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week, and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
The latest chapter of the Showdown rivalry is here, with Port Adelaide and Adelaide locked at 28 wins apiece in head-to-head clashes over the years. It’s one of the fiercest rivalries in the AFL and almost always delivers something spicy. But this time around, it feels like there’s a bit of a gap between the two sides in terms of form, confidence, and stability.
Port are coming off an absolute nightmare in Ballarat where they were torn to shreds by the Bulldogs to the tune of 90 points. It was a brutal reality check after three solid wins that had temporarily settled the ship. Ken Hinkley clearly wasn’t impressed, making five changes at selection—including four unforced. Willie Rioli is out suspended, and others have been dropped as the coach looks for a spark. But the problem runs deeper than personnel. Port have now lost two games by 90+ this season, which says plenty about their inconsistency and inability to absorb pressure against quality opposition.
Adelaide, on the other hand, finally looked like themselves again last week. They smashed Carlton by 60 points at home and looked sharp across every line. The Crows had been wobbling a bit, losing three of their last four before that win, but when they’re on, they’re as dangerous as any team offensively. They’ve cracked the ton in five of their eight games this season, which shows how hard they are to contain once their ball movement clicks into gear. They’ve made just the one change this week—Mitch Hinge comes in for veteran Brodie Smith—and the team looks settled.
Given the way both sides have performed this year, it’s hard not to back Adelaide here. They’ve got more scoring power, a more stable backline, and have generally looked more balanced this season. Port’s defence was all over the place last week, and unless they’ve fixed a lot in a short space of time, the Crows should be able to open them up with their fast ball movement and elite kicking inside 50. Adelaide just look like the stronger, more consistent team right now, and while Showdowns are always fierce, I expect the Crows to rise to the occasion and cover the -12.5 spread.
Adelaide -12.5
$1.90 (2.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Adelaide to Win – Just think they’ll be too good for the vulnerable Power.
Riley Thilthorpe 3+ Goals – Expecting him to get the Ratugolea matchup which he should win comfortably.
Zak Butters 25+ Disposals – Fell one short of the 25-disposal mark last weekend but he’s a big game player and will lift for the Showdown. Expecting 30+ touches from Zak.
SGM Odds: $4.50 at BoomBet
