The first NRL Finals game on Saturday will be an afternoon fixture with the Penrith hosting the Warriors. Expect tremendous conditions in Sydney’s west, with the sun setting in the background of exciting spring rugby league. The Panthers are desperate to create history with their third Premiership and are well placed to do so. The Warriors will not let this opportunity slip though; they have been the big improvers in season 2023 and will be motivated to secure a Preliminary Final in front of their home fans.
As always, BeforeYouBet is here to take a comprehensive look at the action with the aim of adding to your viewing enjoyment by finding a winner or two.
2023 NRL First Qualifying Final Preview & Betting Tips
Penrith Panthers vs New Zealand Warriors
BlueBet Stadium, Saturday 9th September, 4:05pm (AEST)
Preview
The Panthers captured the Minor Premiership with a dominant 44-12 win over the Cowboys. With their opponent’s season on the line, the Panthers gave them little hope in an impressive first half display. This saw 5 tries scored and a 26-nil lead established, with 3 further tries showing the difference in class between them and the Cowboys. They controlled possession (56%) and had a high completion rate (84%), which allowed them to average 9.9m per carry, have 691 pcm’s and make 10 line breaks. Their defence was once again resolute, along with allowing just 12 points, they conceded just 3 line breaks and missed only 24 tackles.
The Warriors were defeated by the Dolphins 34-10 on the road, but no validity can be given to that performance with the Warriors opting to rest a host of players to prepare for this match. Trailing 22-nil at HT, it was evident that the Warriors were focussed on winning this game. They were given minimal chances with just a 46% share of possession and a 75% completion rate. They were uncharacteristic in defence, allowing 15 line breaks and missing 32 tackles. A vastly different team and performance can be expected this week.
Verdict
The Panthers enter this game as strong favourites ($1.20 vs $4.50) and it is hard to see any other outcome other than a victory for the home team. The Warriors are capable and have proven at multiple times this season that they should not be taken lightly. However, now we are at the business end of the season, the Panthers appear to click into another gear. As consistent as the Warriors have been, it’s unknown territory as to whether they can match it with their opponents.
The visitors are already up against it with a poor record at this ground (35%) compared to the home side (60%). On top of that, the defensive record of the Panthers is to be admired; they average just 13ppg in this area compared with the Warriors 19ppg. As strong as the visitors can be on both sides of the ball, they appear unable to match the Panthers across the park and for 80 minutes. That is not to suggest they are completely out of this contest; there is every chance that the home team will be forced to grind out a victory; however, the price on offer for each team is justified.
The Panthers are a strong outfit who relentlessly pressures opponents; this game is likely to take a similar course and justify why the Panthers are the benchmark in the NRL. It is difficult to find value though; the preferred option is to increase an investment on a lower paying option (for safety). The unpredictability of the Warriors can create doubt. The line (12.5) might be too much, so choose a lower one (8.5) with the aim that the Panthers would be able to cover it with their defence holding strong.
Panthers -8.5
$1.62 (2 Units)
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Leg 1: Tago to Score
Leg 2: Turuva to Score
Both players feature down the try scoring list for the Panthers as they have played a limited number of matches. What shouldn’t be forgotten is that they are both quality players and can finish attacking movements on their edge. Look for the Panthers to exploit the Warriors in this area with sweeping attacking movements or dangerously placed kicks, of which both are a threat.
SGM Odds: $5 at Picklebet (0.5 Units)
