The penultimate game for the 2024 NRL season will see the three-time defending champion Penrith Panthers take on the Cronulla Sharks, for the right to take on either the Storm or Roosters in the Big Dance next Sunday. Whilst the Panthers are no strangers to the Prelims, making it to this stage of the season the last five years, the Sharks have made it back to this stage for the first time since 2018. Will experience be the difference here, or can the Sharks pull off the massive upset? We bring you our thoughts and best bets below!
NRL Finals Week 3 Preview & Betting Tips
Penrith Panthers vs Cronulla Sharks
Accor Stadium, Saturday 28th September, 7:50pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Panthers had a well-earned rest last weekend, having won their Qualifying Final over the Roosters in week 1 of the Finals, 30-10. The Panthers put on an absolute clinic in the first quarter of the match, leading 22-0 after 24 minutes, and whilst they took the foot of the gas and allowed the Roosters back into the contest, when it got close they inevitably clicked back into gear to win comfortably in the end. Nathan Cleary seemed like he was straight back into top gear, managing two try assists whilst having an unbelievable kicking game. Isaah Yeo was also brilliant, running for over 200 metres and making 42 tackles, whilst orchestrating the middle of this Panthers machine all night.
Whilst the Sharks lost in week 1 of the finals, they got a second chance last weekend against the Cowboys, and took advantage of it, winning their first finals game since 2018. The Sharks jumped out to an early lead in a terrific first half, leading 24-0 at the half, however somewhat concerningly allowed two quick tries in the second half to allow the Cowboys back into the game. The Sharks didn’t manage a try in the second half, but held on to win 26-18, in what seemed like a massive monkey off the back, particularly for Nicho Hynes. Whilst Hynes was solid, it was Braydon Trindall who took over for the Sharks, setting up a try and scoring two himself. Hynes will need to be at his best if the Sharks are to win this weekend and make a second Grand Final in nine years.
Match Preview
The recent history between these two teams makes for grim reading for the Sharks, having only one win over the Panthers in the past 8 meetings, and even that win required a 79th minute Shaun Johnson field goal to get them home. The teams met just once this season, in round 12 at PointsBet Stadium, and the Panthers obliterated the Sharks, running away 42-0 winners, after closing just 3.5-point road favourites. The Panthers were without Nathan Cleary for the clash, making for even worse reading for Sharks’ fans. The total closed 41.5, with the Panthers getting that over the line by themselves.
Moving forward to the Prelim Final, and the Panthers opened 11.5-point favourites, with the number pushing towards 12/12.5 throughout the week. I make the Panthers a 9.5-point favourite, so I can see slight value in the Sharks, however I wouldn’t touch this spread unless it gets the Sharks +12.5.
Moving onto the total, and it opened 42.5 and hasn’t moved. I make a fair total 40.5, so I don’t see a great deal of value here. It’s the second lowest total in this year’s finals series, behind only the Panthers/Roosters game in week 1, which went under by a point. It’s too tight, and I’ll leave it alone for now.
There is a concern that the occasion is too big here for the Sharks. It has been banged on about for weeks that this Sharks team folds when the big games come around, and they don’t get much bigger than this, with the winner moving onto the Grand Final. And whilst looking at this it would appear that the pressure would be on the Sharks to take advantage of this opportunity, the Panthers will have far more pressure on them. With the losses of Luai and Fisher-Harris at the end of the season, this is surely the last year the Panthers cruise to a Prelim Final with such ease, and with history and a 4-peat just two wins away, the players will surely be nervous. Still, they have the experience, and the skill, to get the win here, but I sense they will have one eye on next week. If they do this, I still think they win, but the Sharks should keep this close enough to make Panthers fans a little nervous. Panthers 1-12 is the play.
For the same game multi, it’ll be a different flavour, predicting a big Panthers win and shutout of the Sharks.
Panthers 1-12
$3 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
Panthers (-11.5) – There’s a chance the Panthers destroy the Sharks here, and if that’s the case I don’t think this spread has a shot at surviving.
B To’o (2+ tries) – To’o is back on the right with Cleary back, where he is nigh on impossible to stop. Expect the rampaging winger to go over twice if this gets out of hand.
D Edwards (1+ try) – Edwards looks to be closing in on full fitness again, and he will be hard to stop running off Cleary down the right side.
Sharks (under) 13.5 points – If the Panthers put the Sharks to the sword, don’t expect bulk points for the boys from the Shire.
SGM Odds: $19.81 at Ladbrokes
