The final game on Saturday night would’ve been considered an early Finals preview a few weeks ago. How quickly the fortunes of each team have changed. The Panthers play host to the Sharks in what looks to be a tough and intriguing match for each side. A lot more will be known about either team at fulltime. Let BeforeYouBet help find you a winner with a detailed look at how this match will play out.
NRL Round 22 Preview & Betting Tips
Penrith Panthers vs Cronulla Sharks
BlueBet Stadium, Saturday 29th July, 7:35pm (AEST)
The Panthers welcomed back their stars and fielded one of their strongest teams this season against the Bulldogs on Sunday. As unbackable favourites, they controlled every aspect of the match. Early on, they were racing the clock with their point scoring but that eventually evened out in their 44-18 victory. Their 8-try display was established on several key areas including ball completion rate (80%), strong ball carrying (9.7m per carry), line breaks (9) and having fewer missed tackles. You only have to look as far as the NRL Power Rankings to see how dominant they are.
The standings do not read well for the Sharks, who suffered a 30-26 loss to the Sea Eagles at home. The result suggests a relatively close match, but the contest was one-sided for majority of the 80 minutes; the Sea Eagles led 24-nil at HT and extended this to 30-nil 4 minutes into the second half. The Sharks staged a spirited fightback and came close to stealing victory but left themselves too much of a margin to overcome. While trailing their opponents in key statistical areas of metres per carry, post contact metres, missed tackles and line breaks, the greatest concern for them will come defensively. On top of allowing 30-points, they conceded 9.6m per carry, 8 line breaks and missed more tackles. It is a tough task to quickly turn around a poor run of form and the quality of their opponent here increases the difficulty of the challenge.
The recent performance of each team supports the odds on offer (Panthers $1.12 vs Sharks $6.20). The hit out for the Panthers and their returning players was just what they needed ahead of this contest. You can expect the Sharks to come out with a point to prove in this game but there are plenty of factors working against them. The Panthers have a 60% record at home, compared with the Sharks 47% strike rate and the last time they defeated them at home was back in 2018. The Panthers have won 5 out of the past 6 matches against the Sharks at an average margin of 24.4 points. Despite averaging more points per game (Sharks 27ppg vs Panthers 25ppg), the Sharks defence leaks plenty of points compared to the Panthers, who have the best record in the competition (Panthers 13ppg vs Sharks 22ppg). With their season on the line, the Sharks are expected to lift their defensive structure.
The line (16.5 points) is far too much for a game of this quality. That isn’t to suggest that the Sharks can win this match; an upset would be one of the most surprising results this season. With that in mind, use the line to your advantage, albeit, reducing your investment and watching this contest rather than looking for a large collect.
2018.
Sharks +16.5
$1.85 (1.5 Units)
