Round 26 NRL action begins in Penrith on Thursday with the Panthers hosting the Eels. Always promising an exhilarating contest between two bitter rivals in western Sydney, tensions will be high with each having vastly different reasons to win this contest.
BeforeYouBet is here to take a detailed look at the action and hopefully find you a winner or two to add to your viewing pleasure.
NRL Round 26 Preview & Betting Tips
Penrith Panthers vs Parramatta Eels
BlueBet Stadium, Thursday 24th August, 7:50pm (AEST)
Match preview
The Panthers put on another clinic, outplaying the Titans to win 40-14. After conceding an early try, the Panthers controlled the first half and produced 4 of their own to take a 22-6 lead at the break. Despite conceding 2 tries, they scored 3 of their own to comfortably cruise to victory. Again, the result was set up by Nathan Cleary’s strong kicking game; the Panthers 53% share of possession was only enhanced by this. Despite having an inferior completion rate (80%), they still dominated every attacking statistic, including having 8 line breaks and averaging 10.9m per carry. As highlighted in the NRL Power Rankings, they are going to be a difficult team for anyone to stop.
The Eels find themselves in a simple yet poor situation. They are 2 points out of the Top 8 and need to win this game to be any chance of making the Finals, with a Bye waiting in Round 27. They were defeated 34-12 by the Roosters last week, a team in a similar predicament, rarely proving capable of challenging for the result. They tried hard in the first half but were still trailing 18-6 at HT and overall, only had themselves to blame. With just 48% possession, they completed at only 70%, ran for fewer metres and post contact metres, while also having just 4 line breaks. Their defence was poor too, conceding 10 line breaks and missing 52 tackles. If they do not improve on this, they will be torn apart by the Panthers and lose all hope of featuring in the Finals after 40 minutes.
Verdict
The Panthers are short priced favourites ($1.08 vs $8) to keep their winning streak going and the Eels look hard-pressed to change the expected outcome of this match. Despite the Eels winning 3 of the past 5 against the Panthers, including their Round 4 match-up 17-16, they are a weaker team than those encounters, as well as here. The loss of Moses alone makes it difficult and further questions around their defensive resolve will be exposed. You only must look at the average amount of points they concede this season (24ppg) compared to the resolute structure of the Panthers (12ppg). Points scoring comes naturally to each side (Panthers 26ppg vs Eels 14ppg) but defence is where this game will be won. The home ground advantage further sways the contest towards the Panthers as they have a 60% win record here compared to the Eels 39%.
The Eels will likely lift for this contest; rarely is a game played between these two sides not accompanied by physicality and ferociousness. Once the Panthers deal with that and gain momentum, they should have what is takes to handle what the Eels throw at them. The past two Panthers victories over their opponents here have been by an average of 17.5 points, so the line is well set at 20.5. There is every indication that the Panthers can cover this, with a impressive display to build plenty of momentum for them to rest players in Round 27.
Panthers -20.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
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Leg 1: Panthers 13+
Leg 2: To'o 2+ Try’s
Leg 3: Crichton 1+ Try
The first selection goes without saying. As for the two players on edge for the Panthers, their selection for this game comes down to the woeful Eels defence in this area. They have leaked crucial points here in the past two weeks and you can expect the Panthers to expose it again.
SGM Odds: $5.50 at Picklebet (0.5 Units)
