The Penrith Panthers will get their shot to win their second minor premiership in as many years after almost throwing it away against Parramatta last weekend. With Brisbane losing to Melbourne on Thursday night, the Panthers will get a second chance to be minor premiers if they can secure a victory against North Queensland, at BlueBet Stadium. A loss for the Cowboys however, would see them miss the 2023 NRL Finals, needing a rare victory in Penrith and a Raiders or Rabbitohs loss to make the eight.
NRL Round 27 Preview & Betting Tips
Penrith Panthers vs North Queensland Cowboys
Saturday 5:30pm AEST, September 2nd, BlueBet Stadium, Penrith
The Brisbane Broncos loss was the best thing that could happen to this game, but there is still heavy uncertainty on which team Ivan Cleary will field on Saturday. The Panthers’ coach has named the strongest available side for their match against the Cowboy’s, but it may all be smoke and mirrors. After looking strong mid-way through the season beating some of the big guns, the Cowboys looked destined for another finals appearance. However, a three game skid, after winning six in a row, has put them in a very vulnerable position heading into the final round of the home-and-away season, needing results to go their way.
Besides their shock loss to their nemesis, the Parramatta Eels last week, the Panthers have been the definition of consistency all year long. Simply having a quick glance at the team’s statistics shows that it doesn't matter when or where you play Penrith, teams are going to struggle to score more than 2 tries and they are most likely going to put on 4 or 5 themselves. No team had put on more than 30 points on the Panthers all year before last week against the Eels, however it was the Cowboys that had racked up 27 points on Penrith in North Queensland, in round 16, which was the most points Penrith had conceded in 2023.
BlueBet Stadium is another kettle of fish though and Penrith has not been a happy hunting ground for the Cowboys, who have lost their last 4 matches at the venue. With so much on the line the Cowboy’s would have hoped that this game was played at QCB Stadium instead, as they have not travelled well in 2023 winning just 36% of their games on the road. They also average 9 points less in attack when playing away, compared with their home statistics.
This game is really going to depend on what team Ivan Cleary fields on Saturday, but if he sticks to his guns and wants to take momentum into 2023 NRL Finals then I don’t see the Panthers letting the minor premiership slip out of their grasp again. The Cowboys did look good last week, but it was against the Dolphins and if the Panthers are in their zone they are still the benchmark team in the comp. After their poor defensive performance last week, Penrith will want to strangle the Cowboys out of this game which will keep this match low-scoring. The fact that North Queensland have struggled for points away from home is also going to help this total stay low. The bookies have set the Game Total at 41.50 which is tight against the 39 points predicted by our models, but that is where my money will lie in this game.
Under 41.50 Total Points
$1.95 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
Game Total Under 45.5 Points - The last 6 games involving the North Queensland Cowboys have gone under the alternative game total of 45.5 points.
Brian To’o ATS - The Penrith winger had scored 10 tries in 7 matches before going tryless against the Eels last weekend. To’o has also scored a try in all 4 games he has played against the North Queensland Cowboys in his career.
North Queensland Under 14.5 Points- The Panthers are averaging just 12 points against at home, while the Cowboys have scored under 14.5 points in 3 of their last 4 matches.
SGM Odds: $3.74 at Neds
