Round 3 NRL action begins with the blockbuster Grand Final rematch between the Panthers and the Broncos in Penrith. The 2023 decider was one of the most exciting matches of the season and this match promises to be exhilarating. The Broncos will be out for revenge after coming close to winning the match, only to be denied by several moments of brilliance from halfback Nathan Cleary. A win will not heal the wounds which still remain, but it will help in setting up their 2024 campaign.
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2024 NRL Round 3 Preview & Betting Tips
Penrith Panthers vs Brisbane Broncos
BlueBet Stadium – Thursday 21st March – 8pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Panthers captured their first win of the season last week with a gritty and determined 26-18 performance over the Eels at home. After being kept scoreless in Round 1, they needed a positive start. Things didn’t go to plan as they conceded the first try, struggled for momentum in the first half and trailed 18-16 at HT. They kept the pressure on their opponents (51% possession) and were damaging carrying the ball with an average of 10.1m per carry, 625pcm and 9 line breaks. Eventually, this was too much for their opponents. In a sign of their improvement, they allowed their opponents to average just 8.1m per carry and kept them to 3 line breaks.
It was a different story for the Broncos on Friday as they hosted the Rabbitohs, with a scrappy first half from both sides leaving many questioning the fatigue levels post-Vegas. Momentum quickly turned in the second half too and their 12-nil HT lead was evaporated 6 minutes. They were tough though; they tightened their defence and aimed to control possession (54%). They will want to improve on that effort though with their completion rate (69%) and mistakes (15) being two areas which need addressing if they are to be competitive here.
Match Prediction
The omission of Adam Reynolds for the Broncos has had a large impact on the odds and predicted outcome of this match. The Panthers are favourites ($1.27 vs $3.80), with the visitors expected to struggle without their halfback. Jock Madden has been named to start but other players in the spine will have to cover the loss of their captain. Breaking new on Wednesday evening also ruled out Payne Haas (who will require surgery). This weakens their team further but is off-set by James Fisher-Harris being unavailable for the Panthers. They demonstrated last week just how capable they are at absorbing pressure; even if the Broncos challenge them, they should be able to cope with it.
The battle of the forward packs (even with the omitted players) appears to be worth the admission fee alone. History also favours the home side; the Panthers have won 6 of the past 7 against the Broncos, with the Broncos victorious just once in their past 8 visits to this ground (at venue = Panthers 60% vs Broncos 44%). With the home team the preferred selection, you must go searching for value; Reynolds’ omission challenges the Broncos attacking options, but they are still a capable defensive unit.
The line (10.5) should be considered. 4 out of the past 5 games have been decided by a 1-12 margin, with 3 of those matches having 30 or fewer total points scored. Then again, with two of their best and most influential players out, the Panthers should look to make a statement in this match.
Panthers -10.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
Despite what is written above, there are reservations about what will occur without Reynolds and Haas. Not only that, majority of NRL matches this season have been above the total offered. As for Turuva and May, both have been in special form to start the year. Turuva crossed last week for a try and has strong form against the Broncos. May is dangerous and will look to prove a point against representative defenders.
Total Points Over 37.5
Turuva to Score
May to Score
SGM Odds: $7.50 at Neds
