Attention of the rugby league world will centre on the NRLW this Sunday as two blockbuster matches take place to see who will face off in the Grand Final next weekend.
It has been one of the most exciting seasons to date, with larger scores, amazing play and fierce defence setting a new standard which has delighted fans. As teams are just one win away from the decider, the quality of play is expected to head to another level, with 4 strong teams all a chance of winning the Premiership.
Before You Bet is here to breakdown both matches this weekend, making sense of the chaos and hopefully finding a winner or two to add to your enjoyment.
NRLW Semi-Finals Preview & Betting Tips
Brisbane Broncos vs Cronulla Sharks
Totally Workwear Stadium – Sunday 29th September – 2:05pm (AEST)
Match Preview
A terrific end to the season has seen the Broncos finish at the top of the NRLW ladder. After starting the season slowly with 2 losses, they have been undefeated since Round 3 and have been playing a high standard of rugby league. This was evident last week in their 8-try demolition of the Dragons 44-14. Despite conceding the first two tries, they maintained poise to close out the first half strongly and lead 20-10 at HT. Piling on a further 4 tries in the second half, the Broncos were a clear class above their opponents. They still have shortcomings in attack (64% completion rate) but will aim to set up victories with strong defence; they missed just 13 tackles in that match.
The Sharks have been trending the other way to their opponents since winning their opening 6 games for the season. Winless since then, they were defeated 12-10 by the last-placed Tigers in Round 9, a result which causes concern heading into this week. With just 46% possession, they were void of creativity in attack and couldn’t capitalise on their 6 line breaks.
Match Prediction
The Broncos head into this game as favourites ($1.37 vs $3.15) as scoring points has been an issue for the Sharks all season. Having never defeated the Broncos, they will also need to overcome their shortcomings in attack; they average just 16ppg and have scored 20+ points on only 3 occasions. The Broncos excel in this area, averaging 30ppg and dismantle opponents. Rather, the Sharks rely on their defence; they have an edge over the Broncos here allowing just 13ppg compared to their opponents 17ppg. Their Round 8 encounter saw the Broncos prevail in the last play of the game 20-16 and a similar outcome is expected here.
When it matters, the Sharks limitations in attack can be consolidated by their rigid defensive structure. They will aim to drag the Broncos into a ‘scrap’ for the result. It is a matter of where or not the Broncos can absorb this and pressure their opponents on the scoreboard. Their chances will be limited but they have the attacking prowess to capitalise.
The generous line (8.5 points) comes into calculations then and should be used to your advantage. The winner in this game may only emerge towards the end of the contest and you are also saved against the upset occurring with this option.
Sharks +8.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
The first option supports the idea that this match will be a tight contest. With their most recent match being a low scoring contest and NRLW Finals matches usually following the same path, expect this one to be below the spread on offer. This is why the stake has been increased to 1 unit, as opposed to the usual 0.5 units.
Either Team Under 12.5 Points
Total Points Under 39.5
SGM Odds: $3 at Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights
Allianz Stadium – Sunday 29th September – 4:15pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Roosters comprehensively defeated the Eels 32-18 last week but a late try to their opponents saw them knocked out of 1st position on the ladder based on points difference. It was yet another high-class display from this team which has won 4 out of their past 5 matches. Scoring in the 1st minute of play, they controlled the contest with an 85% completion rate, 9.4m per carry and creating 9 line breaks. Defensive improvements are still required though, as they missed 38 tackles for the match.
The Knights made a statement with their commanding 38-6 road victory against the Cowboys. Finding form at the right stage of the season, everything appeared to ‘gel’ for the visitors, taking an 18-nil HT and never looking back. The win was established with 59% possession and a 71% completion rate, which was complemented by 10.8m per carry and 710 PCM’s. Unlike the Roosters, they were rigid in defence, missing just 20 tackles and allowing 2 line breaks.
Match Prediction
Arguably the most anticipated NRLW game ever, there is little between these two sides. The bookies have a different idea though, listing the Roosters as favourites for this match ($1.67 vs $2.20). While their form has been strong, it is overlooking the fact that they have some limitations to their play. They average 31.8 missed tackles per game (5th vs Knights 27.6 – 9th) and make the highest number of errors (11.3 – 1st vs Knights 10.6 – 5th). It is also underrating the Knights; they are a great team who is only improve this week with Butler and Maynard returning.
If the Roosters were at full-strength, it would also be a different story. With the likes of Upton, Southwell (x2) and Roche directing this team, they can expose what others have failed to do with the Roosters.
The safer option would be to invest on this game being won by either team in a close match; the preferred margin is 10.5 points ($1.80). The value on offer for the Knights is too much to overlook and should make for a wild ride for punters. Keep your stake low and enjoy everything that this thrilling contest has to offer.
Knights to Win
$2.20 (1 Unit)
