The NRLW season is in full swing now and last week saw some upsets change the makeup of this season. Teams which had previously shown talent were delivered a reality check while others surprised with their impressive play. It highlighted just how close the competition is in 2024, and the fans are the ones benefitting, with a high standard of play each week producing some exciting on field action. Get set, another bumper round of exhilarating rugby league is ahead and Before You Bet has you covered with a detailed look at the fixtures ahead this weekend.
NRLW Round 4 Preview & Betting Tips
Brisbane Broncos vs Canberra Raiders
Totally Workwear Stadium – Saturday 17th August – 11am (AEST)
The Broncos captured their first win of the season with a stunning 44-4 victory over the previously undefeated Titans. In desperate need of an improved display, they delivered an 8-try effort which highlighted their potential. They did the little things right also; with 57% possession they completed at 81%, averaged 10.5m per carry and made 10 line breaks. Their defence was also better, missing just 17 tackles. The Raiders suffered their first loss of the season, defeated 24-12 by the Sharks at home. Starting strong and leading 8-nil at the break, they gave opportunities away to their opponents in the second half. Missing 43 tackles and conceding 9 line breaks highlights their shortcomings.
Both sides are unchanged for this match and the Broncos have been listed as strong favourites ($1.30 vs $3.50). That is underestimating the capabilities of the Raiders; they were strong against the Sharks and have proven themselves against the Knights also. The adjustments made by the Broncos last week have undoubtedly improved them; they will (still) need consistency to be successful. This brings the line into play. While the overall investment should be kept low, the season averages of both sides should mean that this game is closer than the odds are suggesting.
Raiders +9.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
North Queensland Cowboys vs Gold Coast Titans
Queensland Country Bank Stadium – Saturday 17th August – 12:45pm (AEST)
The Cowboys hosted the Eels last week but were barely competitive in their 20-6 defeat. Clearly the inferior team, they completed at just 70% with a 45% share of possession, missed 42 tackles and allowed 9.7m per carry. The Titans were just as poor, suffering their first loss of the year in embarrassing fashion. They were outplayed in all areas by the Broncos in their 44-4 upset. The result was not surprising considering that with just 43% possession, they completed at 72%, allowed 10 line breaks and missed 46 tackles. It was an uncharacteristic display compared to their opening matches of the season.
The loss for the Titans last week is likely to spark them into action. The Cowboys have struggled in matches so far this year, and that is why they are listed as outsiders ($4 vs $1.25). If the Titans were to lose back-to-back matches in disappointing fashion, it would heavily disrupt their progress this season. Expect them to have to fight hard to establish a strong platform first but, once this is achieved, their defence should strangle the inferior Cowboys team out of the game, albeit, by a small than anticipated margin. This is largely because the Titans only average 16ppg in attack and concede the same amount (22ppg) in defence as their opponents.
Titans 1-12
$2.80 (1.5 Units)
St George-Illawarra Dragons vs Sydney Roosters
WIN Stadium – Sunday 18th August – 12pm (AEST)
The Dragons captured their first victory of the season with a spirited 18-10 victory over the Knights in Newcastle. Level at HT with their opponents, the Dragons managed to keep their opponents scoreless in the second half. The win was established by having a greater share of possession (52%) and a superior completion rate (77%). They also managed 9.6m per carry against a strong pack of forwards. The Roosters took care of business in simple fashion 20-4. A tight first half saw them trail 4-nil at HT but they kicked into another gear in the second half. Even with a lesser share of possession (49%) and inferior completion rate (70%), they managed 10m per carry, made 5 line breaks and missed just 26 tackles. Their response in the second half was pleasing to say the least.
The improved display of the Dragons have many wondering whether they can back up such a performance against the Roosters. Team changes have improved their chances (King to start in the halves), while the Roosters undergo another shuffle in their forwards. The key to this game will be defence and so far, this season, the Roosters concede just 9ppg in this area (Dragons 22ppg). The Dragons have a slightly better attacking record (20ppg vs 19ppg), but the Roosters know how to strangle teams out of a contest. It would be surprising to see this game be a blowout result and that is why the preferred option is to stick to the final margin being decided by less than two converted tries.
Roosters 1-12
$2.70 (1.5 Units)
Cronulla Sharks vs Newcastle Knights
PointsBet Stadium – Sunday 18th August – 1:45pm (AEST)
The Sharks jumped to the top of the NRLW competition ladder with a strong road win 24-12 over the Raiders. Scoring all their points in the second half, they had to combat the power coming their way from their opponents. They established their victory by controlling the ball; with 52% possession they completed at 86%, averaged 10.4m per carry and made 9 line breaks. The Knights suffered their first loss of the season, upset at home 18-10 by the Dragons. Locked at 10-all at HT, the Knights failed to score any second half points. There wasn’t much between the two sides; seldom did they give their opponents opportunities but when they did, they were taken.
This game is arguably the ‘match of the round’. Both have named strong squads for this game, making it even more challenging to pick. The Sharks are outsiders ($2.15 vs $1.70) but only just. These two teams are far closer than the odds are suggesting. The Knights are expected to lift for this game given their result last week. The Sharks have been good this season but can also be better. With that in mind, invest around this game being a tight match and enjoy everything that this high-quality game has to offer.
Either Team By 8 Points or Less
$1.90 (2 Units)
Wests Tigers vs Parramatta Eels
Campbelltown Sports Stadium – Sunday 18th August – 6:10pm (AEST)
The Tigers remained winless following their 20-4 loss to the Roosters. Trying hard in the first half, they lead 4-nil at HT. Unfortunately, they were unable to lift once their opponents kicked into another gear in the second half. Despite giving themselves a great chance with a 51% share of possession and an 80% completion rate, they trailed in every other statistic, including missing 37 tackles. The Eels were successful traveling to Queensland to face the Cowboys. They dictated the terms of the match and never appeared in danger of losing the result. The victory was set up on the back of controlling possession (55%) and having a superior completion rate (83%). Averaging 9.7m per carry also helped their cause significantly.
The Tigers look set to continue their losing streak. They are outsiders for this match ($3.10 vs $1.38), with the losses of Apps and Crichton to injury hurting their chances. The Eels are unchanged and have been producing a high standard of execution so far this season. They will want to make a statement against the Tigers in this match and consolidate their standing inside the Top 4. There is no reason why they cannot achieve this and continue their winning form.
Eels -7.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
