One round remains in the 2023 NRLW regular season and five teams are in contention to make the Finals. With only one team guaranteed to play next week, it makes for a thrilling final round. With new teams to the competition, those at the bottom have plenty to play for as well, with pride in their inaugural season and momentum ahead of next year’s campaign as important as ever.
Before You Bet is here to cover the exhilarating on-field NRLW action and hope to find a winner or two to enhance your viewing enjoyment!
NRLW Round 9 Preview & Betting Tips
Wests Tigers vs Newcastle Knights
Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Thursday 14th September, 7:45pm (AEST)
The Tigers fell short against the Broncos last week, losing 22-18 after conceding 2 tries in the final 8 minutes. It was a disappointing finish to a game where they showed promise, completing at 84% and putting themselves in positive attack positions. They were let down defensively though, missing 36 tackles and conceding 7 line breaks. Capable of competing in a grinding contest, switching off during games has hurt them. The Knights produced their best effort so far this year, defeating fellow contenders, the Roosters, 20-4. Completely outplaying their opponents, they went to another level in the second half with scores locked at 4-all at HT. They controlled possession (52%), had a superior completion rate (70%), averaged significantly more metres in attack (10.7m) and were strong in defence allowing just 1 line break and only missing 20 tackles. It was a statement of they are a title contender. They have named a full-strength team for this game, with the aim of locking up the Minor Premiership with a victory. This has seen them listed as short favourites ($4 vs $1.25) meaning that punters must go in search of value. With their ability to score more points (16ppg vs 24ppg) and limit their opponents (19ppg vs 13ppg) the Knights can defeat the Tigers by more than 2 converted tries, albeit, not until the last quarter of the match.
Knights 13+
$2.00 (2 units)
Sydney Roosters vs North Queensland Cowboys
Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Saturday 16th September, 6pm (AEST)
The Roosters suffered their second loss of the season, defeated 22-4 by the Knights in a game they were completely outplayed in. Heading into the game as favourites, they were their own worst enemy with a poorer completion rate (68%) which impacted their share of possession (48%). They averaged fewer metres per carry (10.7m vs 9.3m), allowed more line breaks (5 vs 1) and missed more tackles (24). It was a defeat against a fellow competitor that they will be keen to bounce back from. The Cowboys found themselves on the wrong end of a clinic, defeated 34-12 by the Raiders. They justified their second-last placing on the ladder with that effort. With just 40% possession, they completed at a horrendous 56%, with 12 errors halting their momentum and meaning they made just over 1,100m. They were equally as poor in defence, missing 44 tackles and conceding 9 line breaks. If they are not careful here, a similar result could transpire. The odds ($1.10 vs $7) suggests that this is a likely outcome. The Roosters are the superior team and have named a strong side, boosted by the return of Boyle at prop. Expect them to dominate up front and relentlessly pressure the Cowboys defensive line, eventually leading to mistakes. Their higher average of attacking points (30ppg vs 14ppg) and the Cowboys poor defensive record (28ppg vs 14ppg) suggests that the Roosters are going to regain some confidence at the right time.
Roosters -18.5
$1.95 (2 units)
St George-Illawarra Dragons vs Brisbane Broncos
Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Saturday 16th September, 8:10pm (AEST)
The Dragons went down to cross-town rival the Sharks in a grinding affair 16-8. In a close match, the Dragons tried hard and gave themselves every chance of winning. With 51% possession, they completed at 88% but were not as effective with the ball as they would have hoped. They made fewer metres and post contact metres and had just 2 line breaks. In contrast to this, they missed 39 tackles and allowed 6 line breaks. The Broncos were forced to pull out something special in their 22-18 win over the Tigers, trailing by 8 points with 10 minutes remaining. Two tries in 4 minutes put them back in front and in many ways, they were lucky to escape; they completed at just 62%. However, they were strong with the ball, averaging more metres per carry (11.6m per carry) and creating 7 line breaks. They are the superior team here and this is reflected in the odds ($3.25 vs $1.25). The Dragons injury toll has plagued them all season; the Broncos are boosted by the return of Broughton to the halves, adding some stability and allowing other key players to focus their attention elsewhere in attack. As gritty and determined as the Dragons can be, they will struggle against a team that needs to score plenty of points to both solidify a spot in the Finals and improve their confidence ahead of this.
Broncos -9.5
$1.90 (2 units)
Parramatta Eels vs Cronulla Sharks
GIO Stadium, Sunday 17th September, 1:05pm (AEST)
The Eels were anything but competitive in their 34-12 loss to the Titans on the road, conceding 7 tries and scoring just 2 in the match. Sitting at the bottom of the competition ladder with just 1 win to their name, they were completely shut out of the contest. With just 44% possession, they completed at 70%, made just over 1,000m total and just 2 line breaks. They were worse in defence, missing 44 tackles and allowing 7 line breaks. The Sharks salvaged some pride in their inaugural season, defeating the Dragons 16-8. Grinding out a tough victory, they were their own worst enemy as they completed at just 69%. They dominated in other areas though, averaging 9.2m per carry, more pcm’s and missing just 11 total tackles. It is no surprise to see the Eels listed as outsiders for this game ($4.50 vs $1.20). They have struggled for much of the season and the Sharks appear to be the stronger team across the park. The Eels horror defensive record (31ppg vs 18ppg) suggests there will be no shortage of opportunities for their opponents. How they convert such chances into points remains to be seen, but it should allow them to finish their season on a positive with a comfortable victory.
Sharks 13+
$1.90 (2 units)
Canberra Raiders vs Gold Coast Titans
GIO Stadium, Sunday 17th September, 3:15pm (AEST)
The Raiders travelled to play the Cowboys and easily accounted for their opponents 34-12. Clearly the better team, they made 600m more and had 9 line breaks, while controlling possession (60%) and having a high completion rate (80%). It was a similar performance by the Titans, as they gave their Finals hopes a massive boost with a commanding 34-12 win over the Eels. Always expected to win, they found their attacking flair in their 7 try performance, overcoming an early try to their opponents. They were the better team throughout, controlling possession (56%), had a better completion rate (73%), making 500m more and 7 line breaks. There is everything to play for here and the equation is simple: if the Titans win, they make the Finals. For the Raiders to progress, they need to defeat their opponents by 25+ points. The Titans are slight favourites ($1.95 vs $1.85) but this could easily change as KO approaches. The loss of Dodd for the Raiders weakens their forward pack and edge defence. The Titans (16ppg in attack & 15ppg in defence) have an edge over the Raiders (20ppg in attack & 22ppg in defence) when it comes to points scored also. Providing their defence is resolute, they should be able to win their way through to the Finals with a strong performance. It will be a tight, low scoring match and at the time of writing, there are very few markets to invest around, but this may also change closer to the start of this game.
Either team to win by 8pts or less
$2.20 (2 units)
