The second match of the 2024 State of Origin series heads to Melbourne. Excitement was high ahead of the first contest and with the match impacted by a (correct) referring decision made early in the match, fans are desperate to see how each team lines up for this game. There is still a lot of uncertainty around the potential of each team and the match-ups which will play out over 80 minutes. Don’t despair, Before You Bet is here to take a comprehensive look at the action ahead, with the aim of finding you a winner or two to add to your enjoyment.
2024 NRL State of Origin – Game 2 Preview & Betting Tips
New South Wales vs Queensland
Melbourne Cricket Ground – Wednesday 26th June – 8:05pm (AEST)
Squads
New South Wales
1. Dylan Edwards 2. Brian To’o 3. Latrell Mitchell 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Zac Lomax 6. Jarome Luai 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Jake Trbojevic 9. Reece Robson 10. Payne Haas 11. Liam Martin 12. Angus Crichton 13. Cameron Murray Interchange: 14. Connor Watson 15. Isaah Yeo 16. Haumole Olakau’atu 17. Spencer Leniu Reserves: 18. Mitchell Barnett 19. Cameron McInnes 20. Luke Keary
Queensland
1. Reece Walsh 2. Xavier Coates 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Reuben Cotter 9. Ben Hunt 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Jaydn Su’A 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Patrick Carrigan Interchange: 14. Harry Grant 15. Moeaki Fotuaika 16. Felise Kaufusi 17. Kurt Capewell Reserves: 18. Dane Gagai 19. Heilum Luki 20. Trent Loiero
Preview & Prediction
The Maroons head into the second game of the series with a 1-nil victory courtesy of a commanding 38-10 win in Game 1. The result in that match became a forgone conclusion the moment Sua’ali’I was sent off following his illegal tackle on Maroons fullback Reece Walsh. From that point, the game opened for Queensland, and they found greater freedom in their attack.
The Blues were too slow in making an adjustment and by the time they did, it was all too late. There was a slight chance that a fightback was possible trailing 22-10 with 15 minutes remaining but a 66th minute try to Ben Hunt started another Maroons revival. The impact of playing with 12- men for majority of the contest clouds the overall result; some of the defensive errors and attacking shortcoming cannot be overlooked though. That is why there has been several changes made by the Blues ahead of this must-win match. Whether they are the right decisions or not will be known at the end of 80 hard fought minutes of Origin action.
The Blues started at $2.40 in betting markets and have become shorter each day; the odds (at time of writing) have the teams $1.90 each. Desperate to win this match, it is no surprise that the changes the Blues have made will add a new dimension to their play. Key players like Edwards, Moses, Mitchell and Murray appear to give the Blues an advantage on both sides of the ball.
That shouldn’t discredit the Maroons. They are a capable team and their ability to score points (and quickly) in Game 1 shouldn’t be forgotten. They not only demonstrated poise as this was happening but their speed in attack was impressive to see. Perhaps that was made easier by facing one less defender. Moses’ inclusion adds stability to the Blues kicking game and with a utility coming off the bench, they can maintain the up-tempo style of play which may exploit some of the Maroons bigger players; this might also impact the players coming off the bench. Queensland can counter this with the interchange of Hunt and Grant, a combination which worked well for them in Game 1.
It is interesting to note that the Blues have won 5 of the 6 games played at this venue. 4 of the past 5 Game 2 matches have been won by the Blues with all 5 of those fixtures being decided by a 13+ margin. It would be surprising to see such a scoreline here but then again, the unknown surrounding the Blues only builds ambiguity. There is no doubt that they are a stronger team than the one named for Game 1 and with the added motivation of having to send the series to a deciding Game 3 match, expect their best to be displayed.
New South Wales -1.5
$2 (2 Units)
Origin Game 2 Prop Bets
Our NRL expert, Scooby provides his best prop bets for Origin Game 2 below; however, Picklebet are running a ton of promos for Game 2 of the State of Origin, including a mixture of combo multis and Same Game Multi’s, some of which we’ve highlighted. If any of the below bets tickle your fancy, then make sure to head over to Picklebet and join the fun!
- Any Of Brian To'o, Dylan Edwards, Jarome Luai, Liam Martin Or Isaah Yeo To Score A Try ($1.25 at Picklebet)
- Any Of Reece Walsh, Payne Haas Or Patrick Carrigan To Score A Try ($1.95 at Picklebet)
- Any 2+ Of Zac Lomax, Brian To'o Or Stephen Crichton To Score A Try ($2.60 at Picklebet)
- Either Brian To'o Or Xavier Coates To Score The FIRST Try ($5 at Picklebet)
- Any 3+ Of Brian To'o, Jarome Luai, Liam Martin Or Isaah Yeo To Score A Try ($23 at Picklebet)
First Try Scorer/Try Scorer
In the past 13 Game 2 fixtures, outside backs (players wearing 2, 3, 4 or 5) have scored first on 9 occasions. 5 out of the 8 tries scored in Game 1 also saw players wearing these numbers. A free-flowing attacking structure will mean that opportunities are routinely available; defence is always strong in Origin but look for it to be relentlessly pressured over 80 minutes.
New South Wales
Best Bet = Zac Lomax ($10 at Picklebet) – Lomax scored in Game 1 in challenging circumstances and is a threat both on the ground and in the air. Having Mitchell inside him could also open him up as his centre attracts multiple defenders. He is 3rd on the NRL try scoring list for 2024 and will be hard to stop in any situation.
Value = Latrell Mitchell ($15 at Picklebet) – It is no secret that Mitchell will be a weapon for the Blues. Just how he is used remains to be seen. Either way, his big, powerful frame, combined with desire to achieve success, will make him a threat every time he has the ball in his hands.
Queensland
Best Bet = Xavier Coates ($10 at Ladbrokes) – There was a liking to the sweeping left-edge movement by the Maroons in Game 1. Even with Walsh’s omission at the start of the match, they continued to go this way. Despite not scoring in Game 1, Coates should benefit from this here, as inside defenders are forced to shift in to halt the power they possess on the edge.
Value = Jeremiah Nanai ($17 at Ladbrokes) – With the strength in the NSW defensive line at centre, expect the Maroons to target their halves with wide-running back rowers. This is where Nanai excels and, as he is also a threat in the air, his odds appear to be larger than they should be.
Man of the Match
There is no clear pattern of players winning this honour in Game 2. If anything, 8 of the past 12 have been forwards but countering that is that Cleary (2020 & 22) and Tedesco (2021) have won the last 3 awards. For either side, you must go with the players who are likely to have the most impact on the result. As always, this is a market which should be avoided as it is subjective and often, the best player is overlooked. DCE was the winner in Game 1 this year, with a crafty attacking display pulling apart the Blues. Tabuai-Fidow was unlucky considering his 3 try haul.
New South Wales
Best Bet = Cameron Murray ($17 at Neds) – Injured for Game 1, the Blues missed his contribution. The only factor impacting his chances is the rotation of players; it was puzzling in Game 1 and here, could mean that he doesn’t play 80 minutes. Should that be the case, his chances will drop dramatically. It is no secret that if the Blues are to win, Murray must have a high level of quality involvement.
Value = Stephen Crichton ($21 at Neds) – He is one of the Blues best players in attack and defence. If they are to win, expect a big game from him. Linking with his old teammate To’o and with Luai dancing out to his edge, multiple opportunities should be presented to him to leave an impact on this match.
Queensland
Best Bet = Reece Walsh ($6.50 at Picklebet) – Fans were robbed of seeing his best in Game 1 but in the small glimpses available, it is no secret that he is key to the Maroons success. The Blues are going to give him plenty attention in again in attack and while this is where majority of attention will be on Walsh, you cannot overlook his important at fullback defensively. He is just as important the Maroons here as he is with the ball in his hands.
Value = Ben Hunt ($26 at Picklebet) – There is a high chance that Hunt will remain on the field when Grant is introduced to the contest. His support play in Game 1 was superb and he can fill the role of lock strongly in the middle. Hunt’s experience also makes him a strong selection to lead his team to victory.
Total Points/Margin
As mentioned above, 4 of the past 5 Game 2 matches have been won by the Blues with all 5 of those fixtures being decided by a 13+ margin. The average margin of victory for the Blues since 2011 is 15.7 points while the Maroons have won by an average of 14.5 points; they were successful by 26 points in Game 2 last year. The average total points is 35.2 points with an outlier of 10 points (Game 2, 2014) dragging the average down slightly. There is no doubt that the firepower within these teams will make for an exciting attacking contest; you only must look at how each team moved the ball in Game 1 to see how dangerous each will be against. This game is likely to follow a similar pattern to previous years; the last time the Blues needed a victory in Melbourne in Game 2, they were successful 26-18 (2015).
Total Points – Over 37.5 ($1.90 at QuestBet)
Margin – NSW 1-12 ($3.10 at QuestBet)
Good luck!
