Get ready for an electrifying clash as New South Wales and Queensland lock horns in Game 3 of the highly anticipated State of Origin series, set to take place in Sydney on Wednesday 12th July. Although the series outcome has already been decided, there’s no denying the intensity and significance of an Origin match.
Join us at BeforeYouBet as we provide expert guidance to help you navigate through the excitement and uncover potential winners in this must-watch State of Origin showdown.
2023 NRL State of Origin Game 3 Betting Tips
New South Wales vs Queensland
Wednesday 12th July, Accor Stadium, 8:05pm
Teams
New South Wales: 1. James Tedesco 2. Brian To’o 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Bradman Best 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Cody Walker 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Jake Trbojevic 9. Damien Cook 10. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 11. Liam Martin 12. Keaon Koloamatangi 13. Cameron Murray Interchange: 14. Isaah Yeo 15. Jacob Saifiti 16. Reece Robson 17. Clinton Gutherson Reserves: 18. Scott Drinkwater 19. Spencer Leniu
Queensland: 1. AJ Brimson 2. Xavier Coates 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Cameron Munster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Reuben Cotter 9. Harry Grant 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 11. David Fifita 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Patrick Carrigan Interchange: 14. Ben Hunt 15. Lindsay Collins 16. Moeaki Fotuaika 17. Corey Horsburgh Reserves: 18. Tom Dearden19. J’maine Hopgood
Preview & Prediction
The Maroons head into this game on a high after wrapping up the series at home with a 32-6 defeat of the Blues. Leading 10-nil at HT after a tight first half, the Maroons clicked into another gear in the second half, with the Blues unable to match them. Three tries in a 12-minute period of the second half, while the Blues also scored 1, was all that was needed to shut their opponents out of the match. While injuries did have an impact, some of the selection calls from the Blues coaching staff was puzzling to say the least; most notably, the decision to move (and keep) Cook at centre after Trbojevic went off injured in the opening moments.
NSW had the edge with the ball, having 51% possession but were unable to do anything with it. They completed at just 73% compared with the Maroons 83%, while also making more metres and post-contact metres. They were ineffective with the ball though, having just 2 line breaks compared with the Maroons total of 7. It was as if the Blues were waiting for something to happen or someone to take control of the contest, rather than generating opportunities. It wasn’t to be though and with 4 changes (a total of 7 including injuries) ahead of this game, they are hoping for an improved outcome. The Maroons were also forced into changes but the confidence coming out of their camp is scary for any Blues fan that may consider their opponents on the verge of another dominating period in Origin.
This is a key match in how the Blues develop moving forward. Should they lose this game, there could be a huge fallout and drastic changes occur for them in the future. Some of the team selections are surprising too; there is a possible defensive weakness in the incoming Blues players. Meanwhile, the Maroons have lost a spark without Walsh at the back, but other areas remain solid. They are a team which is high (and thriving) on confidence and there is nothing that would please this team more than embarrassing their opponents.
The ruthless approach by Slater and co during their playing days would ensure that this Maroons team is focussed on the result and not complacent about what is ahead. This ensures that they are well placed to capture victory. The fact that NSW has made more changes against increases the uncertainty within this camp. This is never an ideal situation for anyone, let alone players who are trying to make their mark on a match. If the Blues do win, it would be on the back of a grinding effort, with several key players finding form. That doesn’t appear likely to happen though, leaving the preferred option to be investing around the Maroons to ‘clean sweep’ the series.
Maroons -3.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
First Try Scorer/Anytime Try Scorer
Outside backs (players 2-5) have a knack of scoring first in Game 3 matches. Since 2011, they have scored 9 times, with centres have scoring 5 times and wingers 4. Valentine Holmes has scored 4 times (3 as a winger and once as a centre). Another interesting statistic to point out is that Queensland has scored first in all but 2 Game 3 matches since 2011. So far this series, the Maroons have scored both opening tries, with each going to their centre pairing of Tabuai-Fidow and Holmes. It would be safe to assume that a similar pattern of attack will occur. Stick with them for the Maroons, with plenty of value on offer. The Blues have only scored 4 tries in total and look hard pressed to break the Maroons defensive line. Go with players who are new to the fold and will likely create something down their edges.
Queensland
Favourite: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow – $13 (first) & $2.75 (anytime) at Picklebet
Outsider: Valentine Holmes – $15 (first) & $3 (anytime) at Picklebet
New South Wales
Favourite: Cody Walker – $17 (first) & $3.50 (anytime) at Picklebet
Outsider: Keaon Koloamatangi – $23 (first) & $4.75 (anytime) at Picklebet
Man of the Match
This is a market which is always advised to stay away from. The fact that it is now a ‘dead rubber’ almost completely makes the decision of selecting a player to win this honour near impossible. Since 2011, a player outside of the spine (1, 6 7 & 9) has only won this award twice, with one of those (Corey Parker – 2014) coming in a dead rubber. So, the ‘Suggested Bets’ below are going to keep with this theme.
Queensland
Favourite: Daly Cherry-Evans – $11 at Ladbrokes
Arguably the player of the series so far, DCE has been influential for the Maroons across the park. There are no signs of this stopping either and he will want to pile the pressure on the Blues throughout the game.
Outsider: Harry Grant – $15 at Ladbrokes
Swapping with Hunt to start this game, Grant will be dynamic out of the ruck. Look for him to also have a high work rate in defence.
New South Wales
Favourite: Mitchell Moses – $10 at Neds
Did enough in Game 2 but if the Blues are to win, it will be on the back of his kicking game. If that is the case, Moses will be influencing the result for 80 minutes.
Outsider: Damien Cook – $26 at Neds
Large odds since he is expected to spend time off the field with Robson named on the bench. Never got an opportunity to showcase his skills in Game 2 but there was a noticeable difference in speed when he did go to hooker for one or two plays.
Total Points/Margin
The average total points in Game 3 matches since 2011 is 38.4 points. It is surprisingly lower in the 4 ‘dead rubber’ matches since 2011, with a total of 35 points scored. The first two matches have seen the Maroons score 20+ points on both occasions. They are a strong attacking team. Providing this theme continues, there is no reason why the total will not go over the current offer of 40.5 points.
Margin wise, only 4 Game 3 fixtures since 2011 have been decided by 13+ points and only 1 of the 4 dead rubber matches has seen the same margin. This doesn’t mean it isn’t possible. The opening two games of the series indicates that it is highly likely, especially considering the new combinations (and possible weaknesses) in those incoming players to the Blues squad. Probably one to stay away from but if you must, the Maroons look well placed to pile points on their opponents.
Total Points: Over 40.5 – $1.90 at TAB (1 Unit)
Margin: Queensland 13+ – $3.40 at TAB (0.25 Units)
Same Game Multi
Queensland -3.5
Tabuai-Fidow to Score
Total Points Over 40.5
SGM Odds: $7 at Picklebet (1 Unit)
