After winning Game 1 of this best-of-three NRL State of Origin series, the Maroons will be eyeing off a win in Queensland to clinch the series in Game 2. However, taking down the Blues again is a tough ask, and certainly easier said than done. Our expert Scooby has done his homework and brings you his preview and best bets for Game 2.
2023 NRL State of Origin Game 2 Betting Tips
Queensland vs New South Wales
Suncorp Stadium, 21st June, 8:10pm (AEST)
Teams
Queensland: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Xavier Coates 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Cameron Munster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Lindsey Collins 9. Ben Hunt 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 11. David Fifita 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Patrick Carrigan Interchange: 14. Harry Grant 15. Thomas Flegler 16. Reuben Cotter 17. Moeaki Fotuaika Reserves: 18. AJ Brimson 19. Corey Horsburgh
New South Wales: 1. James Tedesco 2. Brian To’o 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Tom Trbojevic 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Jarome Luai 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Junior Paulo 9. Damien Cook 10. Payne Haas 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Hudson Young 13. Isaah Yeo Interchange: 14. Stefano Utoikamanu 15. Cameron Murray 16. Liam Martin 17. Reece Robson Reserves: 18. Matt Burton 19. Keaon Koloamatangi
Preview & Prediction
The second game of the 3 game series heads to Queensland, with the Maroon taking a 1-nil lead following a spirited 26-18 win in Game 1. The Blues headed into that game as favourites and were unable to close out the match with the Maroons limited to 12 players with just over 10 minutes remaining. Furthermore, they had injury issues and players out of position. The spirit which was displayed is synonymous with Queensland rugby league teams.
New South Wales missed a unique opportunity, and this has only heard calls for an overhaul of the system grow louder since that result. They enjoyed a greater share of possession (53%), completed at the same level as their opponents (78%), ran for more metres and had more post contact metres. In the end, they failed to take their opportunities and had a few mistakes which were punished by their opponents.
Each side has been forced into making changes to their team too, with injuries coming for key players. With the series on the line, history is against Blues; they need to resurrect their performance in a hostile environment to send the series to a decider. It is always a tough ask to win on the road in Origin and the circumstance of this game only increases the difficulty of the task. This game promises to be an intriguing contest.
The Maroons head into this game as strong favourites and rightly so given the circumstances surrounding it. NSW are without three key players in Cleary, Mitchell and Koroisau; if the Maroons would have lost similar players of importance, they too would be outsiders (even if they were playing at home). The Maroons have injury issues also, but that is far less than the Blues. Some would argue that the inclusion of Cook at hooker adds another dimension to their attack and Robson will ensure the intensity is maintained when he takes the field too. On the other side of things, the Maroons are quietly going about their business. Their spine remains unchanged and the experience (and stability) it offers in a big game situation is invaluable.
There is minimal doubt that the Maroons are in the box seat to win this game and the Blues must lift their execution. When the game became an arm wrestle in the middle during Game 1, Queesnland were able to stick with the Blues; they were close to cracking at times, but this was due to fatigue and a lack of forward rotation as opposed to any shortcomings they may have had. They are the preferred selection in this game, although, you need to look elsewhere for increased value. The average margin of victory in the past 4 years in Game 2 fixtures is very high (28.5 points – all won by NSW – more detail below on this) and the Maroons will not get away with the same level of execution.
New South Wales +6.5
$1.85 (1.5 Units)
First Try Scorer/Anytime Try Scorer
Game 1 saw only outside backs score for the Maroons, while the Blues had two forwards and one back cross the line. In the past 12 Game 2 fixtures, outside backs (players wearing 2, 3, 4 or 5) have scored first on 8 occasions. This appears to be the right formula to go with again, with plenty of chances expected on the edges. The Maroons wingers also have a height advantage and are an equal threat on the ground and in the air. The Blues will need to go to their usual attacking weapons. Tom Trbojevic needs a greater contribution (and is one player who you can expect to deliver) while Tedesco will also be looming large in many of their attacking opportunities.
Queensland
Favourite: Xavier Coates - $8 (FTS) & $2 (Anytime) at TAB
Outsider: Munster - $17 (FTS) & $3.25 (Anytime) at TAB
New South Wales
Favourite: Trbojevic - $15 (FTS) & $3.10 (Anytime) at TAB
Outsider: Tedesco - $17 (FTS) & $3.25 (Anytime) at TAB
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Man of the Match
There is no clear pattern of players winning this honour in Game 2. If anything, 7 of the past 12 have been forwards but countering that is that Cleary (2020 & 22) and Tedesco (2021) have won the last 3 awards. For either side, you must go with the players who are likely to have the most impact on the result. As always, this is a market which should be avoided as it is subjective and often, the best player is overlooked.
Queensland
For the Maroons, it is hard to go past Munster and DCE for a favourite selection, with Munster having the slight edge with his ability to create a game-changing play (or even plays) out of nothing. For an outsider, Patrick Carrigan will play long minutes and provides a strong contribution on both sides of the ball.
Favourite: Munster - $5.50 at Ladbrokes
Outsider: Carrigan - $19 at Neds
New South Wales
You can find a great price on any NSW player, with Moses/Tedesco being the shortest at $10. They will likely have a large impact on the result, but you also cannot overlook Luai. He was one of NSW’s best in Game 1 and is well over the odds ($29). Haas will play long minutes and his contribution is crucial to their success. Expect him to take the game to the Maroons in the middle and create plenty of opportunities for Cook with a quick ruck speed.
Favourite: Haas - $19 at TAB
Outsider: Luai - $29 at Neds
Total Points/Margin
The last 4 Game 2 fixtures have been dominated by NSW, with comfortable 13+ margins recorded. This has increased the average margin of victory to 28.5 points. Since 2011 it sits at 14.5 with the Maroons winning by an average of 10.7 points and the Blues 15.8 points. As for total points, the average sits at 35 since 2011. Even with blowout scores, the total remains reasonably consistent. This game is expected to follow a similar pattern. A blowout is unlikely; the last time NSW faced the situation of needing to win Game 2 in Brisbane to keep the series alive (2016), they were defeated 26-16.
Total Points: Over 37.5 points - $1.90 (0.75 Units) at TAB
Margin: Queensland 1-12 - $3 (1 Unit) at Ladbrokes
