Round 20 in the 2024 AFL season continues on Super Saturday where five fixtures fill up the schedule once more. There’s only one game in the early timeslot this time around and that’s the clash in Tassie between North Melbourne and Geelong. We bring you our full betting preview for the match below!
Also, Before You Bet will be providing free previews and betting tips for EVERY game in the 2024 AFL season, so make sure to head over to out our AFL Tips regularly to keep up to date with all of our free content.
2024 AFL Round 20 Preview & Betting Tips
North Melbourne vs Geelong
Saturday 1:45pm AEST, July 27th, Blundstone Arena
After a disappointing performance against the Swans in Round 18, North Melbourne were largely competitive against the Blues last weekend where they eventually went down by 19 points (88-107). The Kangaroos led by 11 points at the main break but a poor third term where they conceded 47 points ended up being the difference.
The Roos have been competitive in six of their seven games post-bye, losing only once by more than 20 points. To put that in perspective, the Roos lost all 11 games pre-bye by 26+ points.
Unfortunately, the Roos have lost three men to injury this week with Zac Fisher, Colby McKercher, and Eddie Ford all set to miss on Saturday. Replacing them are Jaidyn Stephenson, Zane Duursma, and Will Phillips.
Meanwhile, Geelong will be out to make amends for a horrible performance against the Bulldogs last weekend. They were jumped at the start and never managed to recover as they went down by 47 points on home soil (48-95). The Cats have now lost three of their last five games at GMHBA Stadium.
Chris Scott somewhat swung the axe this week with three changes being made, all of which were unforced. Zach Tuohy, Brandon Parfitt, and Mitch Knevitt will make way for Tanner Bruhn, Shannon Neale, and Jed Bews.
Match Prediction: I think there’s an opportunity here for the Kangaroos to test the Cats in the unfamiliar surroundings at Blundstone Arena this weekend due to a few trends we’ve seen in recent weeks.
Over the last five matches the Cats have been getting smashed in clearances, particularly around the ground in stoppage clearances. They rank #18 in this area and this is where the Kangaroos can look to get on top and get the game played in their forward half. The Kangaroos are also strong in stoppage, ranking #4 in the competition over the last five matches, and will have a clear advantage in the ruck with big Tristan Xerri in career-best form.
On top of that, if the above goes to script and the Kangaroos can get the ball moving forward, it also helps restrict the Cats from scoring as they’re ranked in the bottom five for scores from their defensive half over the past five weeks.
With all of that considered, taking the Kangaroos at the generous +4 goal handicap down in Tassie looks to be a play worth targeting.
North Melbourne +24.5
$1.91 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Tristan Xerri 15+ Disposals – It doesn’t matter who the Cats opt to go with in the ruck department, Xerri will have a clear advantage. He should get to 15 touches with ease.
Nick Larkey 2+ Goals – The #1 option in the forward line for the Roos and should get on the end of a couple like he normally does.
Shannon Neale 1+ Goal – Was a late out last week and it backfired. He should come straight back in and hit the scoreboard.
SGM Odds: $3.10 at BoomBet
