Four nations remain in the 2026 Rugby League World Cup, and New Zealand and Tonga will battle for a place in the final when they meet in Newcastle on Saturday night. With a passionate crowd expected at McDonald Jones Stadium, this semi-final promises a physical contest between two sides capable of producing explosive attacking football.
The Kiwis have responded emphatically to their opening defeat against Australia, most recently overwhelming Fiji 78-0. Tonga arrive after edging Samoa 20-18 in a fierce encounter, a result that underlined their resilience but also exposed areas New Zealand may look to exploit.
The battle through the middle, Tonga’s defensive discipline and the potential return of key New Zealand players could decide the contest. We assess both teams, the key statistics and our preferred betting options, including a same-game multi.
New Zealand vs Tonga Prediction & Betting Tips: Rugby League World Cup 2026 Semi-Final
Saturday 7 November 2026 | 8:05pm AEDT | McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
Line: New Zealand -6.5 | Tonga +6.5 | Total: 40.5
Continuing to improve
Since their opening round loss to Australia, the Kiwis have set a high standard in the games they have played.
Scoring 160-16 in two matches, they have looked dynamic in attack and rigid in defence. Now, their toughest test to date emerges but their confidence is high. Their most recent 78-0, 13-try dismantling of Fiji was testament to this. They controlled possession (60%) and completed well (78%), giving them the opportunity to run for 9.8m per carry, 517 PCMs, and create 12 line breaks.
Defensively, they made few mistakes, missing just 13 tackles and limiting their opponents to just 6.9m per carry. This should only improve further with Ponga and Crossland likely to return to the team.
Making another statement
In an exciting display of pride, passion, and excellent rugby league, Tonga defeated Samoa 20-18 last Sunday evening.
Despite scoring fewer tries than their opponents and having an inferior completion rate, they managed to complete better (70%) and make 9.9m per carry. This saw them make 567 PCM’s and 6 line breaks, continually providing themselves with positive attacking opportunities.
One area they need to address though is defence and their missed tackles (45). This gave away too many opportunities, although the damage was not greater. Nevertheless, it is a result which should be taken seriously as the quality continues to be consistently displayed.
Stats that matter
- Despite New Zealand winning majority of matches between these two sides, Tonga were successful the last time they met in a World Cup, defeating New Zealand 28-22 on home soil.
- New Zealand’s attack has dominated this tournament, averaging 61ppg. Their defence is also strong, allowing just 13ppg. In comparison, Tonga have scored 29ppg and conceded 10ppg.
The late inclusions matter
The Kiwis were giving nothing away by naming both Ponga and Crossland on an extended bench. Going on their club form, they should be selected to take the field. Ponga was especially damaging in the opening game of the competition; some may argue that had he remained on the field, the Kiwis would’ve prevailed. The loss of Mulitalo on the wing is covered by Nicoll-Klokstad, who is a suitable replacement offering a different in the game.
Tonga have named a strong side and would’ve taken confidence from Katoa getting through a physical match last week. Playing 80 minutes ensures he is prepared for this contest. Unfortunately, his halves partner appears to be vulnerability. So far this tournament, they’ve covered the shortcomings of Lolohea at 5/8 in defence. New Zealand are not expected to be as kind this week as plenty of traffic is expected to come his way.
There is no doubt that Tonga have proved themselves worthy this tournament but there is a lot to like about New Zealand. Their ability to shift the ball to edges, following a fast ruck speed in the middle, should allow them to capitalise on the mobility of their opponents in the middle. Providing they are not drawn into an arm wrestle, they should prevail due to the abundance of speed on the edges and their ability to cope with the big, strong, Tongan pack.
New Zealand vs Tonga Betting Tips
Best Bet
New Zealand 13+
$2.70 (1.5 Units)
New Zealand vs Tonga Same Game Multi
Three-Leg Same Game Multi
- Total points over 40.5 – set lower than expected, the 6-again rules are likely to play havoc in the middle of the field and open this game more than what is anticipated.
- McLean to score – he is the equal leading try scorer this tournament and is set for another big game. McLean offers multiple ways to cross the try line, and he will get his fair share of opportunities in this game.
- Nikora to score – he has only featured in 2 games this campaign but with 1 try to his name, he has a 50% strike rate. Certain to get his chance in this game, Nikora is just as effective chasing a kick as he is hitting a hole off a play maker.
New Zealand vs Tonga Betting Odds & Match Info
| Date |
Saturday 7 November 2026 |
| Time |
8:05pm AEDT |
| Venue |
McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle |
| Head-to-head odds |
New Zealand $1.46 | Tonga $2.75 |
| Line |
New Zealand -6.5 | Tonga +6.5 |
| Total points |
40.5 |
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