The NRL Finals action is finally here and after a long season, fans will be delighted to witness high intensity rugby league. Everything this season has been leading to these moments and the time for talk is over. The blockbuster weekend begins on Friday with an elimination match between the Rabbitohs and Knights. With everything on the line, both teams will be desperate to extend their season another week. Before You Bet is here with a comprehensive look at what is ahead with the aim of finding you a winner or two to start your weekend off on the right note.
Rabbitohs vs Knights Prediction & Tips: 2026 NRL Elimination Final
Peaking at the right time but still doing things wrong
Yet to put together a complete 80-minute performance, the Rabbitohs took another positive step forward with a 50-20 home win over their rivals, the Roosters. Despite their opponents missing a host of first choice players, the Rabbitohs executed to the level expected. Nevertheless, it was still littered with moments that they would admit, could be improved upon. Dominating possession (60%) and having a high completion rate (85%), they made 8.4m per carries and 617 PCM’s, which lead to 12 line breaks. Their defence was also strong for majority of the contest, missing just 23 tackles. Conceding 2 tries within 2 minutes in the second half highlights their vulnerability which can be exposed by better teams.
Time to get things right
The Knights enjoyed a week off in Round 27 to regroup ahead of the Finals. Few would’ve expected them to be in this situation at the beginning of the season, but credit must go to this organisation. The bye was timely considering they were coming off a 46-32 road loss to the Warriors. Playing with 12 men for majority of the match, the Knights were brave. With just 46% possession they completed at 75% and made 9.4m per carry. Unfortunately, their opponents were superior in most areas; the Knights poor defensive structure saw them miss 55 tackles which must be improved upon moving forward. With injuries to several key players, the resilience of this team will be tested but they have proven so far this season that they can perform under such circumstances.
Stats that matter
- Both teams have a poor record at this ground. The Rabbitohs have won 33% of games here, superior to the Knights 31% record. These two sides met in Round 9 (42-38 Knights) and Round 19 (26-24 Rabbitohs).
- The Knights have won 4 of the past 5 games against the Rabbitohs. The average margin of victory for both teams in this time is 14.2 points, with 2 games (both this season) decided by fewer than 4 points. The average total points in the same number of matches is 51 points.
- The Rabbitohs have a slight edge over the Knights in 2026. With both conceding an average of 24ppg, the Rabbitohs score 28ppg in attack compared to the Knights 26ppg.
Stronger on paper but the game isn’t played there
The Knights have been dealt several blows ahead of this game. On top of players already suffering season ending injuries, they have now lost Mooney and Saifiti. Thankfully, they welcome back Crossland, Young, and Frizell to their team. On the other side, the Rabbitohs have Duncan to add to their backrow, and he will be ready to fire following a rest last week. The Rabbitohs have the strong of two teams on paper, but the Knights have proven several times this season that they cannot be understated. Their effort with 12-players against the Warriors should highlight that. Furthermore, a week off to prepare for this contest will serve them well.
The Rabbitohs are riding high on emotion but are still doing things wrong to allow their opponents a chance over 80 minutes. They did just that last week 10 minutes into the second half; better teams will take their opportunities, and the Knights do not need an open invitation. Considering both games this season have been close contests (decided by fewer than 4 points), this game looks set for a similar outcome. This strongly brings the line into play and allows for an upset. Expect the Rabbitohs to slightly prevail but it will likely go down to the wire.
Knights +7.5
$1.90 (1.5 units)
Rabbitohs vs Knights Same Game Multi
Leg 1 = Total points over 47.5 – see above for justification.
Leg 2 = Either team under 10 points – see above for justification.
Leg 3 = Duncan to score – he has crossed in each of the games against the Knights this season, with 3 tries from his past 4 matches against them. He will again be a threat and has another edge to his attack by slotting into the back row.
Rabbitohs vs Knights Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Friday 11th September
Location: Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Time: 8pm (AEST)
Odds: Rabbitohs $1.40 vs Knights $3
Line: -7.5
Points: 47.5
Where to Watch Rabbitohs vs Knights
Watch the Rabbitohs vs Knights match live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
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