And now, for anyone who has survived the first seven games of NRL Round 24, we arrive at this monstrosity.
Sunday afternoon at CommBank Stadium gives us the Tigers against the Dragons, a matchup between 14th and 17th where neither team has earned anything resembling betting trust. The Dragons are coming off their best victory of the season, upsetting bitter rivals Cronulla 24-16 at Kogarah. Wests had the bye last week, which at least meant they managed to get through an entire weekend without appearing in another crisis headline.
Disgustingly, I am taking the Tigers to win.
The logic is largely situational. St George Illawarra poured everything into last week’s local derby, producing enormous defensive efforts from Jacob Liddle, Ryan Couchman and Clint Gutherson. It was their Grand Final. Reproducing that emotional level seven days later against another bottom 4 side at CommBank Stadium is a completely different challenge.
Wests have lost seven straight and been outscored 208-67 across that stretch, so there is absolutely no pretending this is a high confidence selection. But they finally enjoyed a quieter week, have Jarome Luai, Adam Doueihi, Api Koroisau, Jahream Bula and their key forwards available, and might have one last decent performance left in them.
Hold your nose.
Tigers vs Dragons Prediction & Tips: 2026 NRL Round 24
Tigers Finally Get a Week Away From the Circus
Wests’ most recent game was the 16-13 loss to Parramatta in Round 22, before their Round 23 bye. It was hardly inspiring football. The Eels completed just 67 per cent, made 19 errors and handed the Tigers repeated opportunities to win, yet Wests still found a way to lose. Adam Doueihi briefly put them ahead with a field goal before Parramatta stole the result late.
The positive is that it was at least competitive. After some truly horrendous defensive performances across the previous month, the Tigers restricted Parramatta to 16 and remained in the game for the full 80 minutes.
The bye may have been exactly what this club needed.
There has been relentless scrutiny around Benji Marshall and the playing group, and the Tigers have looked emotionally exhausted as much as physically poor. Having a weekend where they were not required to play, and, importantly, were not the centre of another match day disaster, could allow them to reset.
The team list contains genuine talent. Bula remains dangerous from fullback, Luai and Doueihi form an experienced halves pairing and Koroisau is still capable of controlling a match from dummy half. Terrell May and Fonua Pole give them power through the middle, with Samuela Fainu, Alex Twal, Sione Fainu and Bunty Afoa adding plenty of size.
The backline has been reshuffled again. NSW Cup leading try scorer Solomone Saukuru is set for his NRL debut in the centres, while Junior Tupou and Sunia Turuva occupy the wings. Heamasi Makasini and Starford To’a are out.
There are absolutely no guarantees. But after seven straight defeats, the Tigers are at least rested and facing the only team around their level in my power ratings.
Dragons Produce Their Grand Final Performance
St George Illawarra’s 24-16 upset of Cronulla was easily their best win of the season. The Dragons entered as huge underdogs against a Sharks side sitting fourth but defended with enormous commitment and found the decisive attacking moments late. Setu Tu scored in the 77th minute to seal the result after Cronulla had briefly levelled the scores at 16-16.
The individual efforts were extraordinary. Gutherson ran for 201 metres from 26 carries and broke seven tackles. Ryan Couchman produced 148 metres and an incredible 67 tackles, while Jacob Liddle played the full 80 minutes and made 56 tackles. Young back-rower Hamish Stewart also impressed with 42 tackles and a spectacular first half try.
That is exactly why I am looking to oppose them this week.
It was the local derby. The Sharks had won 11 of the previous 12 meetings. Kogarah was rocking, and the Dragons played with an emotional intensity that has rarely been seen from them in 2026. Backing up that sort of effort against the Tigers at CommBank Stadium is a vastly different psychological proposition.
The Dragons do regain Toby Couchman from concussion protocols, while Damien Cook has been named to start after Jacob Liddle played the entire match last week. Setu Tu keeps his wing spot and the spine features Gutherson, Lyhkan King-Togia, Kyle Flanagan and Cook.
On paper, there is an argument they are the more dependable team. Dean Young has certainly improved their effort and defensive structure. But this has still been a three-win season, and suddenly asking the Dragons to reproduce their peak performance away from Kogarah feels dangerous.
Tigers vs Dragons Recent History
These clubs met only six weeks ago at Jubilee Stadium, with the Dragons winning 24-10. That continued a strong recent run for St George Illawarra in the matchup. The Tigers did win the 2025 Magic Round meeting 34-28, but the Dragons swept both games in 2024, including the extraordinary 56-14 demolition at WIN Stadium.
Recent results:
• 2026 Round 18: Dragons def Tigers 24-10
• 2025 Round 9: Tigers def Dragons 34-28
• 2024 Round 14: Dragons def Tigers 56-14
• 2024 Round 6: Dragons def Tigers 24-12
• 2023 Round 21: Dragons def Tigers 18-14
Hold Your Nose and Back the Tigers
There is no model based masterpiece hiding here. There is no statistical profile that makes me desperate to bet the Tigers. There is barely even a football team I particularly want to trust.
But betting is also about spots, and I think this is a very difficult one for the Dragons.
Last week was their season. The Sharks are their bitter local rival, Cronulla arrived chasing a top 4 position and almost nobody (including me) gave the Dragons a chance. St George Illawarra responded with enormous defensive energy and produced tackle counts that tell you exactly how much they had to invest physically. Now they travel to CommBank Stadium to play the Tigers.
That is a textbook emotional letdown spot.
Wests, meanwhile, have had a week off. For once they have not been dragged through an immediate post-match autopsy, and the core of their team remains intact. Bula, Luai, Doueihi and Koroisau give them considerably more attacking ability than their recent results suggest.
The forwards are also capable of winning this matchup. Terrell May and Fonua Pole should challenge a Dragons middle that spent enormous amounts of energy against Cronulla, while Samuela Fainu can create problems on an edge.
The Tigers must avoid the self-destruction that has defined their season. Errors, poor discipline, and periods of complete defensive disconnection have repeatedly turned competitive matches into blowouts. If that happens again, even the Dragons can put them away. But I think Wests have one decent performance left.
The Dragons deserve all the credit in the world for last Sunday. It was arguably their finest performance of 2026. That is also precisely why I want to fade them seven days later.
This could be ugly. It could be frustrating. There will probably be several moments where anyone who bets it questions their life choices. But sometimes you’ve just to hold your nose and trust your gut.
Tigers to Win
$1.95 (1.5 Units)
Tigers vs Dragons Player Prop Bet
We bet him a couple of weeks ago against the Eels and lost out, but I’m going back to the well this week. We have consistently bet left side wingers to score against the Dragons, and it continues to pay. Back the rangy winger at plus money.
Tigers vs Dragons Same Game Multi
Leg 1: Tigers ML – See above best bet.
Leg 2 J Tupou (1+ try) – See above best prop bet.
Leg 3: V Holmes (1+ try) – Holmes shredded the Tigers just a few short weeks ago with two tries, and at decent odds here I’ll back him in again.
Tigers vs Dragons Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Sunday 16th August
Location: CommBank Stadium - Parramatta
Time: 4:05pm AEST
Weather: Possible showers, 17 degrees
Odds: Tigers ($1.95) vs Dragons ($1.87)
Line: Dragons (-1.5)
Points: 47.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Ladbrokes. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week and are correct at the time of writing.
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